Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: VACAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

VAC AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) is a vacation ownership and resort management company operating under brands such as Marriott Vacation Club and Westin Vacation Club. Over the five years through FY2025, revenue increased at an 11.8% CAGR to $5.03B, but the company posted a net loss of -$308.0M in FY2025. With a net debt load of $5.24B as of June 30, 2026, the stock has rallied 72.9% over the past year.

Market cap
$3.82B
Revenue (TTM)
$3.42B
P/E
—
fwd 7.0x
1Y return
72.9%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$123.27
11.1% vs last close

Bull case

  • Quarterly earnings rose 19.5% year-over-year in the period ended June 30, 2026, supported by 9.7% quarterly revenue growth.
  • Forward P/E stands at 7.0x, well below the 14.1x median for US-listed Consumer Cyclical peers.
  • Analysts project current fiscal year EPS growth of 22.0% to $8.74, with a mean price target implying 11.1% upside.

Bear case

  • Net income swung to a loss of -$308.0M in FY2025, while trailing twelve months profit margin remained negative at -9.8%.
  • Net debt totaled $5.24B as of June 30, 2026, with a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.65.
  • Free cash flow turned negative at -$29.0M in FY2025 as operating cash flow declined to $28.0M.

What Marriott Vacations Worldwide does

Established in 1984 and headquartered in Orlando, Florida, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation specializes in the development, marketing, sales, and management of vacation ownership and related products. It operates through two segments: Vacation Ownership and Exchange & Third-Party Management. Its portfolio includes brands such as Marriott Vacation Club, Grand Residences by Marriott, Sheraton Vacation Club, Westin Vacation Club, Hyatt Residence Club, and Marriott Vacation Club Pulse. It also markets residential products under The Ritz-Carlton Destination Club and holds rights to The Ritz-Carlton Residences. Additionally, the company provides exchange networks, membership programs, and third-party management services under brands like Interval International, Trading Places International, Vacation Resorts International, and Aqua-Aston.

Growth and profitability

Revenue expanded from $3.89B in FY2021 to $5.03B in FY2025, representing a 5-year CAGR of 11.8%. Gross margin fell from 37.4% in FY2021 to 15.1% in FY2025, while operating margin slipped from 11.9% to 11.0%. Net income moved from $49.0M in FY2021 to a loss of -$308.0M in FY2025, leading to a net margin of -6.1%. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $3.42B with an operating margin of 18.5% and a profit margin of -9.8%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 9.7% year-over-year and quarterly earnings rose 19.5%.

VAC income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Marriott Vacations Worldwide held $211.0M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $5.45B, resulting in net debt of $5.24B. Shareholders' equity stood at $2.06B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.65, alongside a current ratio of 3.42. In FY2025, operating cash flow dropped to $28.0M, while free cash flow was -$29.0M after capital expenditures of $57.0M. Capital returns in FY2025 included $61.0M in share buybacks and $110.0M in dividends paid, contributing to a 5-year share count reduction of 12.4%.

VAC balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At $110.93 per share, VAC carries a market capitalization of $3.82B and an enterprise value of $8.71B. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 7.0x, below the 14.1x forward P/E median of its US-listed Consumer Cyclical peers. Its price-to-sales multiple of 1.1x compares with the peer group median of 0.7x, while its EV/EBITDA is 407.6x versus the peer median of 11.1x. Over the past year, the shares gained 72.9%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%, though its 5-year return of -18.4% trails the index gain of 83.0%.

VAC key metrics →

VAC dividend

Marriott Vacations Worldwide pays a quarterly dividend of $3.20 annualized, representing a dividend yield of 2.88% and a payout ratio of 49.3%. The company has paid dividends for 13 consecutive years, with an annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of 42.5%. The most recent ex-dividend date was September 16, 2026.

VAC dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 6 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, and 2 Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target of $123.27 implies upside of 11.1% over the last close of $110.93. For FY2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $8.74 on revenue of $5.44B. For FY2027, 12 analysts anticipate revenue of $5.68B and EPS of $9.66. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings report scheduled for November 3, 2026.

VAC forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Total debt of $5.45B significantly exceeds cash and short-term investments of $211.0M.
  • Trailing twelve months net loss generated an EPS of -$9.59 and a return on equity of -14.7%.
  • Gross margin compressed from 37.3% in FY2024 to 15.1% in FY2025.
  • Market volatility is elevated with a beta of 1.30 and short interest at 9.1% of float.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this VAC AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: VAC income statement, VAC balance sheet, VAC key metrics, VAC analyst forecast, VAC chart. See the VAC stock overview for the latest quote and news.

VAC AI stock analysis FAQ

What dividend does Marriott Vacations Worldwide pay?

The company pays a forward annual dividend of $3.20 per share, equating to a 2.88% dividend yield. Dividends are distributed quarterly, with a payout ratio of 49.3%.

When does VAC report its next earnings?

Marriott Vacations Worldwide is scheduled to report its next financial results on November 3, 2026.

How much debt does Marriott Vacations Worldwide have?

As of June 30, 2026, the company had $5.45B in total debt and $211.0M in cash, leaving net debt at $5.24B with a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.65.

What is the consensus analyst target for VAC stock?

The mean analyst price target is $123.27, which sits 11.1% above the last closing price of $110.93.

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