Mattel, Inc. (MAT) AI Stock Analysis

Mattel, Inc. designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide across North America, International, and American Girl segments. The company offers dolls, accessories, and gaming under brands such as Barbie, Monster High, American Girl, and Polly Pocket. Its vehicle segment manufactures die-cast products and playsets under Hot Wheels, Monster Trucks, Matchbox, CARS, and Mario Kart. Mattel also serves infants and toddlers through Fisher-Price and Thomas & Friends, while offering action figures and games under Masters of the Universe, MEGA, UNO, Jurassic World, and Star Wars. Founded in 1945, the company distributes through retail stores, online platforms, and wholesale partners.

Mattel's revenue has remained relatively flat over recent fiscal periods, moving from $5.46B in FY2021 to $5.35B in FY2025, representing a 5-year revenue CAGR of 3.1% from FY2020. Annual revenue fell 0.6% in FY2025 following a decline of 1.1% in FY2024. Gross margin stood at 48.9% in FY2025, down from 50.8% in FY2024, while operating margin contracted to 11.6%. Net income reached $397.6M in FY2025 with diluted EPS of $1.44. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 10.5% year-over-year, though quarterly earnings growth declined 18.5%, contributing to an operating margin of 1.3% over the trailing twelve months.

As of June 30, 2026, Mattel held $523.9M in cash and short-term investments against $2.75B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $2.22B. Shareholders' equity was $2.00B, corresponding to a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.37, while the current ratio stood at 1.90. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $593.3M, supporting $411.3M in free cash flow after $182.0M of capital expenditures. The company directed capital toward share repurchases, deploying $600.0M for buybacks in FY2025 and lowering its share count by 19.3% over five years.

At $17.20 per share, Mattel trades at a trailing P/E of 12.6x and a forward P/E of 8.5x, both below the median of its US-listed Consumer Cyclical peers at 18.0x and 14.1x, respectively. The company carries an EV/EBITDA of 7.5x compared to the peer median of 11.1x, alongside a price-to-sales ratio of 0.9x versus 0.7x for peers. Over the past year, Mattel's stock fell 5.0%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%. Over a five-year period, the stock declined 12.5%, compared to an 83.0% gain for the benchmark index.

Wall Street coverage consists of 10 Strong Buy, 3 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target of $18.46 represents upside of 7.3% above the October 16, 2026 closing price of $17.20. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $1.30, an 8.0% decline, on revenue of $5.67B. For the subsequent year, 14 analysts expect EPS to rise 21.6% to $1.58 with revenue reaching $5.97B. Mattel has beaten EPS estimates in 1 of its past 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for October 20, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of Mattel, Inc. (MAT). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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