Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: CBSHAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

CBSH AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH) is a regional bank holding company operating Commerce Bank across Consumer, Commercial, and Wealth segments. In FY2025, the company delivered $2.14B in revenue and net income of $566.3M, supported by a 5-year revenue CAGR of 9.0%. As of June 30, 2026, it held $8.97B in cash and short-term investments with a trailing twelve months operating margin of 45.1%.

Market cap
$7.99B
Revenue (TTM)
$1.84B
P/E
13.6x
fwd 13.2x
1Y return
13.9%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$65.56
17.7% vs last close

Bull case

  • Net cash stood at $6.51B as of June 30, 2026, backed by $8.97B in cash and short-term investments against $2.45B in total debt.
  • Trailing twelve months operating margin reached 45.1%, outperforming the US-listed Financial Services peer median of 37.7%.
  • Commerce Bancshares has paid dividends for 42 consecutive years with a low payout ratio of 26.4% and an annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of 3.3%.

Bear case

  • The stock has returned 4.3% over the past 5 years, lagging the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.
  • Annual revenue growth slowed to 2.2% in FY2025, down from 25.8% in FY2023 and 6.3% in FY2024.
  • The stock trades at a valuation premium, with a forward P/E of 13.2x and price-to-sales of 4.3x versus the peer medians of 10.8x and 3.2x.

What Commerce Bancshares does

Commerce Bancshares, Inc. is a bank holding company for Commerce Bank, established in 1865 and headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri. It operates through three main segments: Consumer, Commercial, and Wealth. The Consumer segment offers deposit products, consumer loans, mortgage banking, debit and credit cards, and specialized healthcare financing. The Commercial segment delivers corporate lending, leasing, international banking, merchant card services, government deposit management, and fixed income securities sales. The Wealth segment provides trust and estate planning, advisory services, portfolio management, brokerage, and private banking. The company also engages in private equity investment, securities brokerage, insurance agency operations, and specialty lending.

Growth and profitability

Revenue increased from $1.44B in FY2021 to $2.14B in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year CAGR of 9.0%. Year-over-year revenue growth registered at 3.5% in FY2021, 8.8% in FY2022, 25.8% in FY2023, 6.3% in FY2024, and 2.2% in FY2025. Net income moved from $530.8M in FY2021 to $566.3M in FY2025, while diluted EPS grew from $3.35 to $4.04. The operating margin was 34.2% in FY2025 and reached 45.1% over the trailing twelve months. In the trailing twelve months ending June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $1.84B with a profit margin of 31.6%. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue increased 14.2% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings grew 1.2%.

CBSH income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Commerce Bancshares held $8.97B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $2.45B, resulting in net cash of $6.51B. Total assets stood at $35.27B, and shareholders' equity was $4.36B, corresponding to a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.56 and a current ratio of 3.69. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $645.1M and free cash flow was $592.4M. Capital expenditures totaled $52.7M, while capital deployment included $207.6M in share buybacks and $150.2M in dividends paid.

CBSH balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At its last close of $55.69 on October 16, 2026, Commerce Bancshares traded at a market capitalization of $7.99B and an enterprise value of $6.32B. The company traded at a trailing P/E of 13.6x and a forward P/E of 13.2x, higher than the median of its US-listed Financial Services peers of 12.1x and 10.8x, respectively. Its price-to-sales ratio was 4.3x, compared to the peer median of 3.2x. Over the past year, the stock returned 13.9% versus 16.8% for the S&P 500, and its 5-year return of 4.3% trailed the index return of 83.0%.

CBSH key metrics →

CBSH dividend

Commerce Bancshares pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward payout of $1.10 per share, representing a dividend yield of 1.98%. The payout ratio is 26.4%, and dividends have been paid for 42 consecutive years. The company recorded a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 3.3%, and its last ex-dividend date was September 4, 2026.

CBSH dividend history →

What analysts expect

Consensus ratings from 10 analysts comprise 1 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 8 Hold, 0 Sell, and 0 Strong Sell. The mean price target is $65.56, which sits 17.7% above the last close price of $55.69. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $4.28 on revenue of $1.98B. For the following fiscal year, estimates project EPS of $4.61 on revenue of $2.06B. Commerce Bancshares beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings date scheduled for October 20, 2026.

CBSH forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Quarterly earnings growth decelerated to 1.2% year-over-year in the latest quarter ending June 30, 2026.
  • Consensus estimates project FY2026 revenue of $1.98B, which is lower than the FY2025 revenue level of $2.14B.
  • The stock carries a PEG ratio of 2.06, indicating a premium valuation relative to its projected earnings growth rate.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this CBSH AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Commerce Bancshares, Inc. (CBSH). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: CBSH income statement, CBSH balance sheet, CBSH key metrics, CBSH analyst forecast, CBSH chart. See the CBSH stock overview for the latest quote and news.

CBSH AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Commerce Bancshares' dividend yield and payout history?

Commerce Bancshares offers an annual forward dividend of $1.10, yielding 1.98% as of October 16, 2026. The company has paid dividends for 42 consecutive years with a payout ratio of 26.4%.

How has CBSH performed relative to the S&P 500?

Over the past year, CBSH returned 13.9% compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500. Over 5 years, CBSH generated a 4.3% return versus 83.0% for the index.

What are analysts forecasting for Commerce Bancshares?

The mean analyst price target is $65.56, indicating a 17.7% upside from the last close of $55.69. For FY2026, analysts estimate EPS of $4.28 and revenue of $1.98B.

What does Commerce Bancshares' balance sheet look like?

As of June 30, 2026, Commerce Bancshares held $8.97B in cash and short-term investments against $2.45B in total debt, resulting in net cash of $6.51B. Its debt-to-equity ratio was 0.56 and its current ratio was 3.69.

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