XP Inc. (XP) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: XPAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

XP AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

XP Inc. is a Brazil-based financial services provider delivering securities brokerage, banking, asset management, and advisory services. In FY2025, the company generated $18.24B in revenue and $5.07B in net income while delivering $11.84B in free cash flow. The stock gained 82.2% over the past year, though its mean analyst price target of $26.19 sits 10.4% below its last close of $29.23.

Market cap
$14.83B
Revenue (TTM)
$18.63B
P/E
15.3x
fwd 8.5x
1Y return
82.2%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$26.19
-10.4% vs last close

Bull case

  • XP generated $11.84B in free cash flow in FY2025 while supporting $1.90B in share buybacks.
  • Quarterly revenue rose 10.6% year-over-year for the period ended June 30, 2026, alongside an operating margin of 31.2% over the trailing twelve months.
  • The forward P/E of 8.5x represents a discount to the US-listed Financial Services peer group median of 10.8x.

Bear case

  • Annual revenue contracted 8.2% in FY2025 to $18.24B after reaching $19.87B in FY2024.
  • The balance sheet carried $92.75B in total debt and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.74 as of June 30, 2026.
  • The mean analyst price target of $26.19 implies downside of 10.4% from the last closing price of $29.23.

What XP does

Founded in 2001 and headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil, XP Inc. operates as a leading financial services firm serving both retail and institutional clients. The company provides securities brokerage, private pension plans, commercial and investment banking products, and financial advisory services. Through its XP Platform, XP offers an open-architecture distribution model granting users access to equities, fixed income securities, mutual and hedge funds, private equity, structured products, credit cards, life insurance, and real estate investment funds. In addition, XP supports client financial education through its Xpeed portal, providing classes and seminars on investment techniques and strategies.

Growth and profitability

XP expanded revenue from $12.97B in FY2021 to $19.87B in FY2024 before revenue fell 8.2% to $18.24B in FY2025. Over the five-year period from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue grew at a compound annual growth rate of 16.2%. Net income stood at $3.73B in FY2021, rose to $5.18B in FY2024, and reached $5.07B in FY2025 with a net margin of 27.8%. Operating margin was 32.4% in FY2025, compared to 32.0% in FY2021. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue growth was 10.6% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings grew 8.6% year-over-year.

XP income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, XP held $7.97B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $92.75B, leaving net debt at $84.79B. Shareholders' equity was $24.79B alongside total assets of $407.40B, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.74 and a current ratio of 0.50. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $12.04B and free cash flow was $11.84B. Capital allocation during FY2025 included $209.3M in capital expenditures, $1.90B in share buybacks, and $494.5M in dividends paid.

XP balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

XP trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 15.3x and an EV/EBITDA of 15.6x, both higher than the median of its US-listed Financial Services peers at 12.1x and 11.7x, respectively. However, its forward P/E of 8.5x and price-to-sales ratio of 0.8x sit below the peer group medians of 10.8x and 3.2x. Over the past year, XP shares gained 82.2%, outperforming the S&P 500 benchmark return of 16.8%. Over a five-year horizon, XP shares declined 9.5%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.

XP key metrics →

XP dividend

XP pays a semiannual dividend with an annualized forward rate of $0.20 per share, representing a dividend yield of 0.68%. The payout ratio is 4.7%, and the company has paid dividends for 4 consecutive years. XP's most recent ex-dividend date occurred on June 10, 2026.

XP dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage consists of 8 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, and 1 Hold recommendations, with no Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The average analyst price target is $26.19, which is 10.4% below the last close of $29.23. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $20.09B and EPS of $10.92, representing 11.3% EPS growth. XP beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 16, 2026.

XP forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • A current ratio of 0.50 as of June 30, 2026, reflects short-term liquidity constraints relative to short-term obligations.
  • High leverage is reflected by net debt of $84.79B against shareholders' equity of $24.79B.
  • The stock traded 55.6% above its 200-day moving average as of October 16, 2026, increasing sensitivity to potential pullbacks.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this XP AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of XP Inc. (XP). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: XP income statement, XP balance sheet, XP key metrics, XP analyst forecast, XP chart. See the XP stock overview for the latest quote and news.

XP AI stock analysis FAQ

What was XP's revenue growth in the latest quarter?

For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, XP reported quarterly revenue growth of 10.6% year-over-year.

Does XP pay a dividend?

Yes, XP pays a semiannual dividend of $0.20 annually per share, reflecting a dividend yield of 0.68% and a payout ratio of 4.7%.

What is XP's debt load?

As of June 30, 2026, XP had $92.75B in total debt and $7.97B in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $84.79B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.74.

When does XP report its next quarterly earnings?

XP is scheduled to report its next earnings on November 16, 2026.

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