Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) AI Stock Analysis
NMR AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchNomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR) is a Tokyo-based global financial services firm with a market capitalization of $27.00B. In FY2026, the company generated $4.76T in revenue and $362.13B in net income. Over the past year, the stock returned 33.5%, outperforming the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.
- Market cap
- $27.00B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $2.33T
- P/E
- 10.7x fwd 15.4x
- 1Y return
- 33.5% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $11.22 21.4% vs last close
Bull case
- Nomura achieved a 5-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 27.5% from FY2021 to FY2026, reaching $4.76T in annual revenue.
- In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly earnings grew 42.0% year-over-year while quarterly revenue rose 31.2%.
- The company has paid dividends for 25 consecutive years and maintained an annualized dividend growth rate of 11.0% over the last five years.
Bear case
- The firm reported free cash flow of -$1.20T and operating cash flow of -$842.96B for FY2026.
- Total debt stood at $35.18T as of June 30, 2026, resulting in a high debt-to-equity ratio of 9.18.
- Consensus estimates for the next fiscal year project EPS to decline by 0.6% alongside revenue growth of 0.2%.
What Nomura does
Headquartered in Tokyo, Japan, Nomura Holdings, Inc. provides financial services to individuals, corporations, financial institutions, and governments worldwide. The firm operates across three main segments: Retail, Investment Management, and Wholesale. The Retail segment provides investment services and financial products through 119 branches as of March 31, 2022. The Investment Management segment manages investment trusts and funds while delivering advisory, custodial, and administrative solutions. Nomura's Wholesale segment engages in market-making, trading, and sales of fixed income and equity products, as well as underwriting securities and providing financial advisory for mergers, acquisitions, and capital structuring.
Growth and profitability
Nomura delivered a 5-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 27.5% from FY2021 to FY2026. Annual revenue expanded from $1.37T in FY2022 to $4.76T in FY2026, marking a 5.6% increase in the most recent fiscal year. Net income reached $362.13B in FY2026, up from $340.74B in FY2025, with an operating margin of 11.3% and a net margin of 7.6%. For the trailing twelve months, revenue stood at $2.33T, yielding an operating margin of 30.8% and a profit margin of 17.3%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 31.2% year-over-year while quarterly earnings expanded by 42.0%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Nomura held $35.00T in cash and short-term investments against $35.18T in total debt, resulting in net debt of $182.93B. Shareholders' equity was $3.83T, alongside total assets of $68.22T, a current ratio of 0.95, and a debt-to-equity ratio of 9.18. In FY2026, operating cash flow was -$842.96B and free cash flow was -$1.20T. Cash allocation for FY2026 included $353.82B in capital expenditures, $179.74B in dividends paid, and $101.50B in share buybacks, contributing to a 5-year share count reduction of 4.8%.
Valuation and performance
At a closing price of $9.24 on October 16, 2026, Nomura trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 10.7x, below the median of its US-listed Financial Services peers of 12.1x. Its forward price-to-earnings ratio of 15.4x stands above the peer median of 10.8x, while its price-to-sales ratio is 0.0x compared to the peer median of 3.2x. The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.2x and a PEG ratio of 0.81. Over the past year, the shares returned 33.5%, outperforming the S&P 500 return of 16.8%, and gained 128.0% over five years versus 83.0% for the index.
NMR dividend
Nomura offers a forward dividend yield of 3.51% based on an annual dividend forward of $0.32 per share. The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of 13.9% and has paid dividends for 25 consecutive years. Over the last five years, the dividend grew at an annualized rate of 11.0%. The most recent ex-dividend date was March 31, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage consists of 1 Strong Buy rating, with no Buy, Hold, Sell, or Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target is $11.22, implying upside of 21.4% from the last close of $9.24. For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027, the consensus EPS estimate is $0.98 on projected revenue of $2.47T, reflecting 27.2% EPS growth. Over the last four quarters, the firm beat EPS estimates 2 times. The next earnings date is October 28, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Free cash flow was -$1.20T in FY2026, reflecting negative cash flow trends recorded across four of the last five fiscal years.
- A debt-to-equity ratio of 9.18 and a current ratio of 0.95 show significant financial leverage and balance sheet exposure.
- Nomura beat EPS estimates in only 2 of the last 4 quarters, highlighting potential variability in near-term earnings delivery.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this NMR AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Nomura Holdings, Inc. (NMR). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: NMR income statement, NMR balance sheet, NMR key metrics, NMR analyst forecast, NMR chart. See the NMR stock overview for the latest quote and news.
NMR AI stock analysis FAQ
What is Nomura Holdings' dividend yield and payout history?
Nomura offers a forward dividend yield of 3.51% backed by an annual dividend forward of $0.32 per share. It has paid dividends for 25 consecutive years and maintains a payout ratio of 13.9%.
When does Nomura Holdings report its next earnings?
Nomura Holdings is scheduled to report its next earnings on October 28, 2026.
How did Nomura perform in the latest quarter?
In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Nomura posted year-over-year quarterly revenue growth of 31.2% and quarterly earnings growth of 42.0%.
What is the consensus analyst price target for NMR stock?
The mean analyst price target is $11.22, which is 21.4% above the last closing price of $9.24 as of October 16, 2026. The firm has 1 Strong Buy rating from analysts.