Coincheck Group N.V. (CNCK) AI Stock Analysis
CNCK AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchCoincheck Group N.V. operates a cryptocurrency exchange and NFT marketplace in Japan. In FY2026, revenue grew 25.3% to $480.24B, while net income came in at -$1.83B. Over the trailing twelve months, the company recorded an operating margin of -1.2% and diluted EPS of -$0.07.
- Market cap
- $254.7M
- Revenue (TTM)
- $510.59B
- P/E
- — fwd 71.4x
- 1Y return
- -69.8% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $3.10 133.3% vs last close
Bull case
- The mean analyst price target of $3.10 implies upside of 133.3% relative to the last close of $1.33.
- Quarterly revenue grew 36.1% year-over-year in the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026.
- Consensus estimates project EPS to turn positive at $0.01 in the next fiscal year alongside 20.5% revenue growth to $541.69B.
Bear case
- The stock has dropped 69.8% over the past year, trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.
- Free cash flow remained negative at -$1.30B in FY2026 following negative free cash flow of -$2.62B in FY2025.
- The stock trades at a forward P/E of 71.4x, compared to the median of its US-listed Financial Services peers of 10.8x.
What Coincheck does
Coincheck Group N.V. operates as a cryptocurrency exchange services provider in Japan. The company operates the Coincheck NFT Marketplace platform, enabling users to purchase non-fungible tokens. It facilitates trading in various cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. In addition to trading, Coincheck offers staking rewards, asset management, trade execution and settlement, and custody services. Founded in 2012 and headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, the company operates as a subsidiary of Monex Group, Inc.
Growth and profitability
Between FY2022 and FY2026, Coincheck experienced substantial top-line volatility, reflected in a 5-year revenue CAGR of -1.7%. Revenue dropped 74.4% in FY2023 to $176.92B, rebounded 26.6% in FY2024 to $224.05B, rose 71.1% in FY2025 to $383.33B, and reached $480.24B in FY2026 with 25.3% growth. Operating margin was -0.3% in FY2026, compared to 0.7% in FY2025 and 2.0% in FY2022. Net income was -$1.83B in FY2026, narrowing from -$14.35B in FY2025. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue expanded 36.1% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings declined 68.9%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Coincheck held $16.08B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $32.65B, resulting in net debt of $16.57B. Total assets stood at $113.55B, and shareholders' equity was $31.11B, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.05 and a current ratio of 1.21. For FY2026, operating cash flow was -$1.22B and capital expenditures were $80.6M, leading to free cash flow of -$1.30B. The company's share count increased 534.8% over five years.
Valuation and performance
Coincheck trades at a forward P/E of 71.4x and an EV to EBITDA of 895.6x, standing well above the median of its US-listed Financial Services peers of 10.8x and 11.7x, respectively. Its price-to-book ratio is 1.6x, and price-to-sales is 0.0x. The stock closed at $1.33 on October 16, 2026, placing it 36.9% below its 200-day average. Over the past year, CNCK shares fell 69.8%, while the S&P 500 (SPY) returned 16.8%.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage includes 1 Strong Buy and 2 Hold recommendations, with no Buy, Sell, or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $3.10, representing a 133.3% premium over the last close of $1.33. For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027, consensus estimates forecast revenue of $449.53B and an EPS of -$0.06. For the following fiscal year, analysts project revenue to increase 20.5% to $541.69B and EPS to improve to $0.01. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters and is scheduled to report earnings on November 13, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Net debt stood at $16.57B as of June 30, 2026, with total debt of $32.65B exceeding cash reserves of $16.08B.
- Share count has expanded 534.8% over the past 5 years, indicating substantial past equity dilution.
- Inside ownership is high at 95.2%, leaving institutional ownership at 0.5%.
- Trailing twelve months operating margin is negative at -1.2%, compared to the sector peer median of 37.7%.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this CNCK AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Coincheck Group N.V. (CNCK). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: CNCK income statement, CNCK balance sheet, CNCK key metrics, CNCK analyst forecast, CNCK chart. See the CNCK stock overview for the latest quote and news.
CNCK AI stock analysis FAQ
Does Coincheck Group pay a dividend?
No, Coincheck Group does not pay a dividend.
What is Coincheck Group's net debt?
As of June 30, 2026, Coincheck Group held $16.08B in cash and short-term investments against $32.65B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $16.57B.
Who owns Coincheck Group?
Coincheck Group operates as a subsidiary of Monex Group, Inc., with insiders holding 95.2% of the company and institutional investors holding 0.5%.
When is Coincheck Group's next earnings report?
The company's next earnings report is scheduled for November 13, 2026.