Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: UPBDAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

UPBD AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) provides lease-to-own solutions for household durable goods across retail and virtual channels. In FY2025, revenue grew 8.7% to $4.70B, while free cash flow reached $238.7M. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 10.6x and carries an annual forward dividend of $1.56.

Market cap
$954.4M
Revenue (TTM)
$4.74B
P/E
10.6x
fwd 3.5x
1Y return
-17.3%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$27.50
68.0% vs last close

Bull case

  • Analysts maintain a favorable view with a mean price target of $27.50, indicating 68.0% upside from the last close of $16.37.
  • Free cash flow expanded to $238.7M in FY2025, providing substantial coverage for the $87.9M in dividends paid.
  • Valuation multiples are compressed relative to peers, highlighted by a forward P/E of 3.5x and an EV-to-EBITDA of 1.5x.

Bear case

  • Balance sheet leverage is elevated, with total debt of $1.71B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.33 as of June 30, 2026.
  • Market sentiment reflects caution, with short interest accounting for 18.2% of the float.
  • Longer-term share performance has lagged the broader market, posting a 5-year return of -58.1% compared to an 83.0% return for the S&P 500.

What Upbound does

Upbound Group, Inc. operates as a provider of lease-to-own household durable goods across the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico. The company operates through four segments: Rent-A-Center, Acima, Mexico, and Franchising. It offers merchandise including furniture, mattresses, tires, consumer electronics, appliances, tools, handbags, computers, smartphones, and accessories to consumers who may not qualify for traditional financing. Transactions are facilitated through store-based locations, staffed or unstaffed kiosks within third-party retailers, retail installment sales stores under Get It Now and Home Choice banners, and virtual platforms including rentacenter.com.

Growth and profitability

Over the five-year period from FY2020 to FY2025, Upbound Group generated a revenue compound annual growth rate of 10.8%. Annual revenue reached $4.58B in FY2021 before declining 7.4% in FY2022 to $4.25B and falling 6.0% in FY2023 to $3.99B. Top-line performance rebounded with an 8.2% increase in FY2024 to $4.32B and an 8.7% rise in FY2025 to $4.70B. Net income moved from $134.9M in FY2021 to -$5.2M in FY2023, before recovering to $123.5M in FY2024 and $73.2M in FY2025. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 0.5% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings grew 42.3% year-over-year.

UPBD income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Upbound Group held $105.3M in cash and short-term investments alongside total debt of $1.71B, resulting in net debt of $1.60B. Shareholders' equity was $733.4M against total assets of $3.10B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.33 and a current ratio of 0.87. In FY2025, the company generated $305.6M in operating cash flow, which funded $66.9M in capital expenditures and $87.9M in dividends paid.

UPBD balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

With a market cap of $954.4M and enterprise value of $2.58B, Upbound Group trades at a trailing P/E of 10.6x and a forward P/E of 3.5x. These multiples are lower than the median of its US-listed Technology peers, which show a trailing P/E of 28.1x and forward P/E of 18.8x. Its EV-to-EBITDA multiple stands at 1.5x compared to the peer median of 16.6x. Over the past year, the stock fell 17.3%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%. Over five years, the stock dropped 58.1% versus an 83.0% gain for the index benchmark.

UPBD key metrics →

UPBD dividend

Upbound Group pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward dividend of $1.56, representing a dividend yield of 9.52% as of October 16, 2026. The company has paid dividends for 8 consecutive years and has a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 1.2%. The dividend is supported by a payout ratio of 37.5%, with $87.9M in dividends paid in FY2025.

UPBD dividend history →

What analysts expect

Analyst coverage consists of 4 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, and 1 Hold ratings, with zero Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $27.50, representing a 68.0% premium over the last close of $16.37. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $4.73B and EPS of $4.16. Upbound Group has beaten EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings release is scheduled for October 29, 2026.

UPBD forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Short-term liquidity faces constraints, as evidenced by a current ratio of 0.87 and net debt of $1.60B as of June 30, 2026.
  • Top-line expansion softened in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, showing quarterly revenue growth of 0.5% compared to the peer median of 11.6%.
  • Share price volatility remains elevated, reflected in a beta of 1.78 and a stock price trading 9.7% below its 200-day average.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this UPBD AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: UPBD income statement, UPBD balance sheet, UPBD key metrics, UPBD analyst forecast, UPBD chart. See the UPBD stock overview for the latest quote and news.

UPBD AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Upbound Group's dividend yield?

Upbound Group has an annual forward dividend of $1.56, which translates to a dividend yield of 9.52% as of October 16, 2026. The company pays dividends quarterly with a payout ratio of 37.5%.

How much debt does Upbound Group carry?

As of June 30, 2026, Upbound Group carried $1.71B in total debt and $105.3M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $1.60B. Its debt-to-equity ratio stood at 2.33.

What are analysts' earnings expectations for UPBD?

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $4.16 on revenue of $4.73B. For the following fiscal year, estimates project EPS of $4.62 on revenue of $4.93B.

How does Upbound Group's valuation compare to its sector peers?

UPBD trades at a trailing P/E of 10.6x and an EV-to-EBITDA of 1.5x, both of which sit below the median of its US-listed Technology peers, which trade at 28.1x and 16.6x, respectively.

More Technology AI stock analysis