Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: ULTAAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

ULTA AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA) is a US specialty beauty retailer offering cosmetics, skincare, haircare, and salon services across physical stores and digital channels. In FY2026, the company generated $12.39B in revenue, up 9.7% year-over-year, alongside $1.07B in free cash flow. Over the trailing twelve months, Ulta produced $12.96B in revenue and an operating margin of 12.5%.

Market cap
$25.35B
Revenue (TTM)
$12.96B
P/E
21.6x
fwd 19.6x
1Y return
10.4%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$631.44
6.5% vs last close

Bull case

  • Ulta Beauty generated $1.07B in free cash flow in FY2026 while repurchasing $901.4M of its own shares.
  • In the latest quarter ended July 31, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 8.9% year-over-year and quarterly earnings rose 13.3%.
  • Share repurchases have reduced the total share count by 20.4% over 5 years, supporting trailing twelve month EPS of $27.44.

Bear case

  • Operating margins contracted from 16.2% in FY2023 to 12.5% in FY2026, lowering net income from $1.24B to $1.15B.
  • Ulta's forward P/E of 19.6x trades at a premium to the median of its S&P 500 Consumer Cyclical peers of 15.6x.
  • The stock returned 10.4% over the past 1 year and 46.1% over 5 years, lagging the S&P 500 returns of 16.8% and 83.0% respectively.

What Ulta Beauty does

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a specialty beauty retailer across the United States. Its store network offers cosmetics, fragrances, skincare items, haircare products, bath and body essentials, and salon styling tools. Stores also provide salon services covering hair, skin, makeup, brow treatments, and nail services. Ulta Beauty features private label products under the Ulta Beauty Collection brand, in addition to curated exclusive branded merchandise and gift options. Customers are also served online through ulta.com and mobile applications. Originally incorporated as Ulta Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc., the Bolingbrook, Illinois-based company rebranded in January 2017.

Growth and profitability

Ulta Beauty expanded revenue from $8.63B in FY2022 to $12.39B in FY2026, achieving a 5-year revenue CAGR of 15.0%. Annual revenue grew 40.3% in FY2022, 18.3% in FY2023, 9.8% in FY2024, 0.8% in FY2025, and 9.7% in FY2026. Gross margin remained steady, registering 39.0% in FY2022 and 39.1% in FY2026. However, operating margin narrowed from 16.2% in FY2023 to 12.5% in FY2026, while net income moved from $1.24B to $1.15B over that span. Diluted EPS rose from $18.01 in FY2022 to $25.63 in FY2026. For the latest quarter ended July 31, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 8.9% year-over-year and quarterly earnings grew 13.3%, supporting trailing twelve month revenue of $12.96B.

ULTA income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of July 31, 2026, Ulta Beauty held $213.5M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $2.52B, resulting in net debt of $2.31B. Shareholders' equity stood at $2.64B, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.95 and a current ratio of 1.35. Total assets reached $6.96B. In FY2026, the company generated $1.50B in operating cash flow and funded $434.8M in capital expenditures, delivering $1.07B in free cash flow. Ulta deployed $901.4M toward share buybacks in FY2026, contributing to a 20.4% reduction in share count over 5 years.

ULTA balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Ulta Beauty has a market cap of $25.35B and an enterprise value of $25.56B. At its last close of $592.94 on October 16, 2026, the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 21.6x and a forward P/E of 19.6x. This compares to the median of its S&P 500 Consumer Cyclical peers of 19.7x trailing P/E and 15.6x forward P/E. Its EV/EBITDA of 13.2x sits below the peer median of 13.8x, while its price-to-sales multiple of 2.0x matches the peer median. Over the past 1 year, ULTA returned 10.4%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%. Over 5 years, ULTA returned 46.1% compared to 83.0% for the S&P 500.

ULTA key metrics →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage consists of 15 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, and 9 Hold ratings, with no Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $631.44, representing a 6.5% premium to the last close of $592.94. For the fiscal year ending January 31, 2027, consensus estimates project EPS of $28.95 on revenue of $13.28B. For the following fiscal year, 18 analysts forecast EPS of $31.99 on revenue of $13.96B. Ulta has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is December 3, 2026.

ULTA forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Net debt stood at $2.31B as of July 31, 2026, supported by $213.5M in cash against $2.52B in total debt.
  • FY2025 revenue growth slowed significantly to 0.8% before recovering to 9.7% in FY2026, highlighting potential cyclicality in consumer demand.
  • Operating margin of 12.5% for the trailing twelve months trails the median of its S&P 500 Consumer Cyclical peers of 13.6%.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this ULTA AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Ulta Beauty, Inc. (ULTA). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: ULTA income statement, ULTA balance sheet, ULTA key metrics, ULTA analyst forecast, ULTA chart. See the ULTA stock overview for the latest quote and news.

ULTA AI stock analysis FAQ

What was Ulta Beauty's revenue and earnings performance in FY2026?

Ulta reported FY2026 revenue of $12.39B, representing 9.7% year-over-year growth, and net income of $1.15B, resulting in diluted EPS of $25.63.

Does Ulta Beauty pay a dividend?

Ulta Beauty does not pay a dividend, instead allocating capital toward initiatives such as $901.4M in share buybacks and $434.8M in capital expenditures in FY2026.

How does Ulta's valuation compare to its sector peers?

Ulta trades at a forward P/E of 19.6x and EV/EBITDA of 13.2x, compared to the median of its S&P 500 Consumer Cyclical peers of 15.6x and 13.8x, respectively.

What are analysts expecting for Ulta's upcoming earnings?

For the fiscal year ending January 31, 2027, analysts estimate EPS of $28.95 and revenue of $13.28B, with the next quarterly report scheduled for December 3, 2026.

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