Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) AI Stock Analysis
TMP AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchTompkins Financial Corporation (TMP) is a regional financial holding company operating across banking, insurance, and wealth management. The company generated $446.6M in trailing twelve-month revenue with an operating margin of 45.0%. Over the past year, the stock returned 62.4%, supported by trailing EPS of $12.23 and a 37-year history of uninterrupted dividend payments.
- Market cap
- $1.40B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $446.6M
- P/E
- 8.0x fwd 12.9x
- 1Y return
- 62.4% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $104.50 7.1% vs last close
Bull case
- Trailing twelve-month operating margin reached 45.0%, outperforming the US-listed Financial Services peer median of 37.7%.
- Net income expanded significantly in FY2025 to $161.1M, up from $70.8M in FY2024 and $9.5M in FY2023.
- The company offers capital return consistency through 37 consecutive years of paid dividends, supported by a 36.9% payout ratio.
Bear case
- Operating cash flow decreased from $95.0M in FY2024 to $38.9M in FY2025, leaving free cash flow at $31.9M.
- Full-year revenue estimates for FY2026 sit at $353.4M, lower than FY2025 reported revenue of $578.9M.
- The company holds $728.1M in total debt against $71.7M in cash and short-term investments as of June 30, 2026.
What Tompkins Financial does
Tompkins Financial Corporation, founded in 1836 and headquartered in Ithaca, New York, is a financial holding company operating through Banking, Insurance, and Wealth Management segments. Its banking arm delivers deposit products and lending options, including commercial loans, residential mortgages, personal loans, equipment leasing, and real estate financing. The insurance division provides property and casualty, medical, life, disability, and long-term care policies, alongside employee benefit consulting and insurance planning services. The wealth management unit provides investment management, trust, estate planning, and financial advisory services tailored for high net worth individuals, corporate executives, and small businesses.
Growth and profitability
Revenue increased from $316.6M in FY2021 to $578.9M in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 12.2%. After declining 8.4% to $297.4M in FY2023, revenue expanded 45.2% to $431.6M in FY2024 and 34.1% in FY2025. Operating margin rose to 38.8% in FY2025 from 21.5% in FY2024 and 4.0% in FY2023. Net income reached $161.1M in FY2025, up from $70.8M in FY2024. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 7.2% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings grew 36.0%, bringing trailing twelve-month net profit margin to 39.2%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Tompkins Financial held $71.7M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $728.1M, resulting in net debt of $656.4M. Shareholders' equity was $959.9M across $8.80B in total assets, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.76 and a current ratio of 0.01. During FY2025, operating cash flow was $38.9M and free cash flow stood at $31.9M. Capital allocation in FY2025 included $6.9M in capital expenditures, $2.7M in share buybacks, and $36.1M paid in cash dividends.
Valuation and performance
Tompkins Financial trades at a trailing P/E of 8.0x, which is below the 12.1x median of its US-listed Financial Services peers. Its forward P/E stands at 12.9x, compared to the peer median of 10.8x, while its price-to-sales ratio of 3.1x aligns closely with the peer median of 3.2x. The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.4x and an enterprise value to revenue multiple of 7.4x. Over the past year, TMP gained 62.4%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%, though its 5-year return of 42.9% trailed the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.
TMP dividend
TMP pays an annualized forward dividend of $2.80 per share, yielding 2.87% with a payout ratio of 36.9%. Dividends are distributed quarterly and have been paid for 37 consecutive years. The company's dividend growth over the past 5 years annualized at 3.6%, and its most recent ex-dividend date was August 7, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analyst coverage includes 1 Buy and 1 Hold rating, with 0 Sell ratings. The mean price target is $104.50, representing 7.1% upside over the last close of $97.58. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $7.80, representing 23.7% growth, on revenue of $353.4M. For next fiscal year, 2 analysts project EPS of $8.16 on revenue of $386.2M. The company has beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for October 23, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Current ratio is low at 0.01 as of June 30, 2026, reflecting the short-term profile of banking balance sheets.
- Quarterly revenue growth slowed to 7.2% year-over-year in the latest quarter, below the sector peer median of 10.1%.
- Net debt stands at $656.4M relative to total shareholders' equity of $959.9M.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this TMP AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Tompkins Financial Corporation (TMP). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: TMP income statement, TMP balance sheet, TMP key metrics, TMP analyst forecast, TMP chart. See the TMP stock overview for the latest quote and news.
TMP AI stock analysis FAQ
What dividend does Tompkins Financial Corporation pay?
TMP pays a quarterly dividend totaling $2.80 annually per share, which yields 2.87%. The company has paid dividends for 37 consecutive years and maintains a payout ratio of 36.9%.
What are analysts forecasting for TMP in FY2026 and FY2027?
For FY2026, analysts estimate EPS of $7.80 on revenue of $353.4M. For the next fiscal year, 2 analysts forecast EPS of $8.16 and revenue of $386.2M.
How did TMP perform in the most recent quarter?
For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 7.2% year-over-year and quarterly earnings grew 36.0%.
What is the valuation of Tompkins Financial Corporation?
TMP trades at a trailing P/E of 8.0x, a forward P/E of 12.9x, and a price-to-book ratio of 1.4x, with a market cap of $1.40B.