The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: TDAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

TD AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) is a major diversified financial institution operating across Canada, the United States, and internationally. Over the trailing twelve months, the bank generated $60.82B in revenue with a profit margin of 26.6% and diluted EPS of $6.74. Over the past year, TD delivered a 57.5% price return, outpacing the S&P 500 SPY return of 16.8%.

Market cap
$196.60B
Revenue (TTM)
$60.82B
P/E
17.9x
fwd 15.1x
1Y return
57.5%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$120.43
0.0% vs last close

Bull case

  • Quarterly earnings grew 45.0% year-over-year in the latest quarter ended July 31, 2026.
  • TD has sustained substantial capital returns to shareholders, reducing its share count by 35.4% over five years and executing $20.84B in buybacks in FY2025.
  • The stock generated a 1-year return of 57.5%, substantially outpacing the S&P 500 SPY return of 16.8%.

Bear case

  • In FY2025, operating cash flow and free cash flow were negative at -$69.65B and -$71.79B, respectively.
  • TD trades at a forward P/E of 15.1x, representing a premium over the median of its US-listed Financial Services peers of 10.8x.
  • The consensus analyst mean price target of $120.43 indicates 0.0% upside relative to the last close of $120.39.

What Toronto-Dominion Bank does

The Toronto-Dominion Bank provides a wide range of banking products and services across Canada, the United States, and internationally. Headquartered in Toronto, Canada, the bank operates across Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking, U.S. Retail, Wealth Management and Insurance, and Wholesale Banking segments. Its offerings include personal checking, savings, and investment accounts, as well as business financing, cash management, and international trade services. Additionally, TD Bank offers retail credit cards, auto finance, consumer lending, point-of-sale payment solutions, asset management, and insurance products such as property, casualty, life, and health insurance through its extensive branch and ATM networks and digital platforms.

Growth and profitability

TD grew revenue at a 5-year CAGR of 16.2% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue expanded from $47.72B in FY2021 to a peak of $119.17B in FY2024, before declining 2.8% to $115.84B in FY2025. Net income stood at $14.30B in FY2021, dipped to $8.84B in FY2024, and rebounded to $20.54B in FY2025, yielding a net margin of 17.7%. In the latest quarter ended July 31, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 11.5% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings grew 45.0% year-over-year. For the trailing twelve months, revenue was $60.82B with an operating margin of 38.0% and EPS of $6.74.

TD income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of July 31, 2026, TD held $6.82B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $298.01B, resulting in net debt of $291.20B. Total assets reached $2.11T alongside shareholders' equity of $127.08B, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.35 and a current ratio of 0.05. In FY2025, operating cash flow was -$69.65B and free cash flow was -$71.79B. During FY2025, the bank deployed $2.15B toward capital expenditures, paid $7.66B in dividends, and executed $20.84B in share buybacks, reducing its share count by 35.4% over five years.

TD balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

TD trades at a trailing P/E of 17.9x and a forward P/E of 15.1x, both higher than the median of its US-listed Financial Services peers of 12.1x and 10.8x, respectively. Its price-to-sales ratio of 3.2x matches the peer median of 3.2x, while its price-to-book ratio is 2.4x and EV-to-revenue is 7.9x. The stock has posted a 1-year return of 57.5% and a 5-year return of 111.6%, outperforming the S&P 500 SPY returns of 16.8% and 83.0% over the same periods.

TD key metrics →

TD dividend

TD pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward payout of $3.16 per share, representing a dividend yield of 2.62%. The bank has paid dividends for 31 consecutive years, maintaining a payout ratio of 42.9%. Over the past five years, its dividend grew at an annualized rate of 5.4%. Its most recent ex-dividend date was October 9, 2026.

TD dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage comprises 4 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 3 Hold, and 2 Sell ratings. The mean price target of $120.43 reflects a 0.0% difference from the last close of $120.39. For the current fiscal year ending October 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $10.12 (up 20.9%) and revenue of $60.45B. Next fiscal year estimates project EPS of $11.20 and revenue of $63.88B. TD has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings report scheduled for December 3, 2026.

TD forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Total debt of $298.01B substantially exceeds cash and short-term investments of $6.82B, yielding net debt of $291.20B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.35.
  • Annual revenue contracted 2.8% in FY2025 to $115.84B after reaching $119.17B in FY2024.
  • Free cash flow has demonstrated sharp annual volatility, swinging from $52.76B in FY2024 to -$71.79B in FY2025.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this TD AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of The Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: TD income statement, TD balance sheet, TD key metrics, TD analyst forecast, TD chart. See the TD stock overview for the latest quote and news.

TD AI stock analysis FAQ

What is TD's dividend yield and payment frequency?

TD pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward rate of $3.16 per share, representing a dividend yield of 2.62%. The bank has paid dividends for 31 consecutive years with a payout ratio of 42.9%.

When is TD's next earnings report date?

TD is scheduled to report its next earnings on December 3, 2026.

What are analysts' revenue and earnings estimates for TD?

For the fiscal year ending October 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $10.12 and revenue of $60.45B. For the following fiscal year, estimates project EPS of $11.20 and revenue of $63.88B.

How does TD's valuation compare to its peers?

TD trades at a trailing P/E of 17.9x and a forward P/E of 15.1x, higher than the median of its US-listed Financial Services peers of 12.1x and 10.8x, respectively.

How has TD performed compared to the S&P 500?

Over the past year, TD returned 57.5% compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500 (SPY). Over five years, TD returned 111.6% versus 83.0% for the SPY.

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