Semtech Corporation (SMTC) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: SMTCAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

SMTC AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Semtech Corporation (SMTC) designs, manufactures, and markets analog and mixed-signal semiconductors and advanced algorithms. In FY2026, the company generated $1.05B in revenue, with trailing twelve month revenue reaching $1.17B and latest quarterly revenue rising 32.7% year-over-year. The stock has gained 93.3% over the past year and trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 90.5x.

Market cap
$12.76B
Revenue (TTM)
$1.17B
P/E
90.5x
fwd 53.2x
1Y return
93.3%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$217.07
58.8% vs last close

Bull case

  • Revenue expanded 32.7% year-over-year in the quarter ending July 31, 2026, while trailing twelve month operating margins reached 16.2%.
  • Free cash flow turned positive at $159.7M in FY2026, rebounding from -$125.0M in FY2024.
  • Analyst consensus targets a mean price of $217.07, implying 58.8% upside from the recent closing price of $136.73.

Bear case

  • Semtech has reported net losses for three consecutive years, recording net income of -$40.4M in FY2026 and -$1.09B in FY2024.
  • The stock commands high multiples, with a trailing P/E of 90.5x and an EV-to-EBITDA of 158.8x, significantly above the US-listed Technology peer medians of 28.1x and 16.6x.
  • The balance sheet carries net debt of $320.9M, with total debt standing at $525.0M against cash and short-term investments of $204.1M.

What Semtech does

Semtech Corporation is a semiconductor company that designs, develops, manufactures, and markets analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products alongside advanced algorithms. Established in 1960 and headquartered in Camarillo, California, the company offers signal integrity solutions for optical data communications and video transport infrastructure. Its portfolio also includes integrated circuits for data centers, enterprise networks, and wireless base stations. In addition, Semtech provides protection devices to safeguard electronics against voltage spikes, specialized wireless and sensing products for industrial, medical, and communications uses, and power management products such as switching voltage regulators and wireless charging technologies for original equipment manufacturers.

Growth and profitability

Semtech's annual revenue rose from $740.9M in FY2022 to $756.5M in FY2023, $868.8M in FY2024, $909.3M in FY2025, and $1.05B in FY2026, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 12.0%. Gross margin was 51.6% in FY2026, an improvement from 50.1% in FY2025 but lower than 62.2% in FY2022. Operating margin recovered to 12.7% in FY2026 following -3.9% in FY2024. Net income remained in negative territory at -$40.4M in FY2026, compared to -$161.9M in FY2025 and -$1.09B in FY2024. In the latest quarter ending July 31, 2026, quarterly revenue increased 32.7% year-over-year and quarterly earnings grew 22.7% year-over-year.

SMTC income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of July 31, 2026, Semtech reported $204.1M in cash and short-term investments and $525.0M in total debt, resulting in net debt of $320.9M. The company maintained a current ratio of 1.70 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70 alongside shareholders' equity of $748.9M. Operating cash flow improved to $181.2M in FY2026, generating free cash flow of $159.7M. Capital expenditures totaled $9.8M, while share buybacks reached $217.8M in FY2026. Semtech's share count increased 54.4% over the past five years.

SMTC balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Trading at $136.73, Semtech holds a market capitalization of $12.76B and an enterprise value of $16.56B. Its trailing P/E ratio is 90.5x and its forward P/E is 53.2x, both above the median of its US-listed Technology peers of 28.1x and 18.8x, respectively. The stock trades at a price-to-sales multiple of 10.9x and an EV-to-EBITDA of 158.8x, compared to peer medians of 2.8x and 16.6x. Over the past year, Semtech gained 93.3%, outperforming the S&P 500 return of 16.8%, though its 5-year return of 77.4% trailed the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.

SMTC key metrics →

What analysts expect

Wall Street analysts hold 13 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, and 2 Hold ratings on Semtech, with no Sell ratings. The mean price target of $217.07 represents a 58.8% premium over the last close of $136.73. For the fiscal year ending January 31, 2027, consensus estimates forecast revenue of $1.50B and EPS of $3.65, representing 113.5% EPS growth. In the following fiscal year, 15 analysts expect revenue of $2.04B and EPS of $6.67. Semtech beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings date set for November 23, 2026.

SMTC forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • A beta of 2.42 reflects significant share price volatility relative to the broader equity market.
  • Shareholder dilution has been substantial, with total share count increasing 54.4% over the past five years despite $217.8M in FY2026 share buybacks.
  • Gross margin of 51.6% in FY2026 remains lower than the 63.3% achieved in FY2023.
  • Short interest stands at 7.8% of float, indicating lingering market caution.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this SMTC AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Semtech Corporation (SMTC). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: SMTC income statement, SMTC balance sheet, SMTC key metrics, SMTC analyst forecast, SMTC chart. See the SMTC stock overview for the latest quote and news.

SMTC AI stock analysis FAQ

Does Semtech Corporation pay a dividend?

Semtech does not pay a dividend. In FY2026, the company deployed capital toward $9.8M in capital expenditures and $217.8M in share repurchases.

What are analysts forecasting for Semtech's future revenue and earnings?

For the fiscal year ending January 31, 2027, analysts project revenue of $1.50B and EPS of $3.65. For the subsequent fiscal year, estimates project revenue of $2.04B, reflecting 35.9% revenue growth, and EPS of $6.67.

How does Semtech's valuation compare to its industry peers?

Semtech trades at a forward P/E of 53.2x and an EV-to-EBITDA of 158.8x. Both metrics are above the median of its US-listed Technology peers, which sit at 18.8x and 16.6x, respectively.

When does Semtech report earnings next?

Semtech's next scheduled earnings release date is November 23, 2026.

More Technology AI stock analysis