RXO, Inc. (RXO) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: RXOAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

RXO AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

RXO, Inc. (RXO) provides tech-enabled full truckload freight brokerage and supply chain logistics services across North America. While annual revenue rose 26.2% to $5.74B in FY2025, the company posted a net loss of -$100.0M. RXO's stock has surged 126.3% year-to-date, though it holds $713.0M in net debt against $15.0M in cash.

Market cap
$4.72B
Revenue (TTM)
$6.09B
P/E
—
1Y return
60.3%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$27.96
-2.2% vs last close

Bull case

  • Revenue grew 26.2% to $5.74B in FY2025 and rose 25.0% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • RXO shares have delivered a 1-year return of 60.3%, outperforming the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.
  • Analyst consensus anticipates significant profitability improvement, projecting FY2026 EPS of $0.14 and FY2027 EPS of $0.65.

Bear case

  • The company reported negative net income of -$100.0M in FY2025 and trailing twelve months EPS of -$0.62.
  • Valuation multiples reflect an EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 210.1x, substantially higher than the peer median of 13.9x.
  • RXO carries $713.0M in net debt with only $15.0M in cash and short-term investments as of June 30, 2026.

What RXO does

RXO, Inc. operates a digital marketplace specializing in full truckload freight transportation brokerage services across North America. Headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina, the company utilizes its proprietary technology platform to facilitate transactions between shippers and carriers. Beyond full truckload brokerage, RXO offers managed transportation solutions providing oversight and optimization of supply chain logistics. The company also delivers last mile delivery services to final destinations and freight forwarding services for shipping goods internationally or across borders, seeking to streamline logistics processes and optimize transportation logistics for its diverse clientele.

Growth and profitability

RXO generated $5.74B in revenue for FY2025, up 26.2% after growing 15.9% to $4.55B in FY2024, rebounding from an 18.1% decline in FY2023 when revenue was $3.93B. Across the five years from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue increased at an 11.3% CAGR. However, profitability has weakened. Gross margin fell from 17.9% in FY2022 to 14.4% in FY2025, while operating margin moved from 4.6% in FY2022 to -0.1% in FY2025. Net income dropped from $150.0M in FY2021 to -$290.0M in FY2024 and -$100.0M in FY2025. Over the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue totaled $6.09B with an operating margin of 0.7% and net margin of -1.7%. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 25.0% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings dropped 93.2%.

RXO income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, RXO held $15.0M in cash and short-term investments against $728.0M in total debt, resulting in net debt of $713.0M. The company reported a current ratio of 1.27 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.48 against shareholders' equity of $1.51B. Total assets stood at $3.46B. In FY2025, RXO generated operating cash flow of $51.0M but recorded free cash flow of -$8.0M after funding $59.0M in capital expenditures. Cash deployment included $1.0M spent on share buybacks in FY2025, while its share count expanded 47.4% over five years.

RXO balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At a last close of $28.60 on October 16, 2026, RXO carried a market capitalization of $4.72B and an enterprise value of $3.99B. RXO trades at a price-to-sales multiple of 0.8x, compared to the median of its US-listed Industrials peers of 1.5x. Its EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 210.1x sits well above the peer group median of 13.9x. The stock has gained 60.3% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%, and is up 126.3% year-to-date, trading 40.7% above its 200-day average.

RXO key metrics →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage consists of 2 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, and 15 Hold ratings. The mean price target is $27.96, which is 2.2% below the last close of $28.60. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $6.85B and EPS of $0.14, representing EPS growth of 458.3%. For FY2027, 20 analysts project revenue of $7.55B, up 10.1%, with EPS reaching $0.65. Over the last four quarters, RXO beat EPS estimates in 1 quarter. The next earnings date is November 5, 2026.

RXO forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Operating margin was -0.1% in FY2025 and 0.7% over the trailing twelve months, well below the peer median operating margin of 11.7%.
  • Short interest represents 25.0% of the float, indicating elevated short-seller positioning.
  • RXO has beaten EPS expectations in only 1 of the last 4 quarters, and quarterly earnings fell 93.2% year-over-year in the latest quarter.
  • The stock has a beta of 1.99, indicating roughly double the volatility of the broader market.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this RXO AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of RXO, Inc. (RXO). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: RXO income statement, RXO balance sheet, RXO key metrics, RXO analyst forecast, RXO chart. See the RXO stock overview for the latest quote and news.

RXO AI stock analysis FAQ

Does RXO pay a dividend?

No, RXO does not pay a dividend. In FY2025, cash utilization included $59.0M in capital expenditures and $1.0M in share buybacks.

What was RXO's revenue growth in recent periods?

RXO generated revenue of $5.74B in FY2025, representing annual growth of 26.2%. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue grew 25.0% year-over-year, bringing trailing twelve months revenue to $6.09B.

What are analysts forecasting for RXO's earnings?

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $0.14 on revenue of $6.85B. For FY2027, 20 analysts expect EPS to rise to $0.65 on revenue of $7.55B.

What is RXO's current debt and liquidity position?

As of June 30, 2026, RXO held $15.0M in cash and short-term investments alongside total debt of $728.0M, resulting in net debt of $713.0M. The company reported a current ratio of 1.27 and shareholders' equity of $1.51B.

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