Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) AI Stock Analysis
RKLB AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchRocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) provides launch services and space systems solutions for the defense and commercial sectors. Revenue reached $601.8M in FY2025 behind a 5-year revenue CAGR of 76.5%, though net income was -$198.2M. The company held $2.30B in cash and short-term investments as of June 30, 2026.
- Market cap
- $32.51B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $769.1M
- P/E
- —
- 1Y return
- -24.1% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $102.15 100.9% vs last close
Bull case
- Revenue expanded 62.0% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, backed by a 5-year revenue CAGR of 76.5%.
- The balance sheet features $2.17B in net cash and a current ratio of 5.48 as of June 30, 2026.
- Wall Street analysts set a mean price target of $102.15, implying 100.9% upside compared to the last close of $50.84.
Bear case
- Free cash flow remained negative at -$321.8M in FY2025 alongside an operating cash flow of -$165.5M.
- Rocket Lab trades at a price-to-sales multiple of 42.3x, well above the 6.1x median of its Nasdaq-100 Industrials peers.
- Net losses persisted at -$198.2M in FY2025 while the share count rose 39.2% over 5 years.
What Rocket Lab does
Rocket Lab USA, Inc., headquartered in Long Beach, California, provides comprehensive launch services and space systems solutions tailored for the space and defense sectors. The company offers spacecraft engineering, design, manufacturing, and on-orbit management solutions. Its launch capabilities include small and medium-class rockets, led by its flagship Electron small orbital launch vehicle for deploying satellites into orbit. In addition, Rocket Lab designs and manufactures Photon satellite platforms, components, and subsystems for merchant spacecraft. It is also developing the Neutron launch vehicle targeting the 8-ton payload class, serving commercial entities, aerospace prime contractors, and government agencies.
Growth and profitability
Revenue increased from $62.2M in FY2021 to $601.8M in FY2025, driven by a 5-year revenue CAGR of 76.5%. Annual revenue grew 38.0% in FY2025 following 78.3% growth in FY2024. Gross margin improved from -3.0% in FY2021 to 34.4% in FY2025, while operating margin improved from -164.0% to -38.0%. Net income was -$198.2M in FY2025 compared to -$117.3M in FY2021, resulting in an EPS of -$0.37. Free cash flow was -$321.8M in FY2025 alongside R&D expense of $270.7M. For the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $769.1M with an operating margin of -24.6% and an EPS of -$0.27. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 62.0% year-over-year.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Rocket Lab held cash and short-term investments of $2.30B against total debt of $133.7M, providing a net cash position of $2.17B. Shareholders' equity stood at $3.49B, supporting a current ratio of 5.48 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.04. In FY2025, operating cash flow was -$165.5M, while capital expenditures totaled $156.3M. The company's share count expanded 39.2% over 5 years.
Valuation and performance
At a last close of $50.84 on October 16, 2026, Rocket Lab trades at a price-to-sales ratio of 42.3x and an EV-to-revenue multiple of 55.6x, compared to a price-to-sales ratio of 6.1x for the median of its Nasdaq-100 Industrials peers. Its market cap is $32.51B and enterprise value is $42.79B. Over the past year, the stock returned -24.1%, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over 5 years, its 297.2% return outperformed the S&P 500 return of 83.0%. The stock trades 37.4% below its 200-day average with a beta of 2.94.
What analysts expect
Analyst consensus includes 12 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, and 4 Hold ratings, with 0 Sell and 0 Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target of $102.15 represents a 100.9% premium over the last close of $50.84. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates model revenue of $958.6M and an EPS of -$0.27. For the next fiscal year, 14 analysts project revenue of $1.33B. Rocket Lab beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 9, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- The stock demonstrates elevated volatility with a beta of 2.94 and trades 37.4% below its 200-day average.
- Trailing twelve-month operating margin of -24.6% requires continued reliance on cash reserves to fund operations.
- R&D expense reached $270.7M in FY2025, continuing to place demands on capital.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this RKLB AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: RKLB income statement, RKLB balance sheet, RKLB key metrics, RKLB analyst forecast, RKLB chart. See the RKLB stock overview for the latest quote and news.
RKLB AI stock analysis FAQ
When is Rocket Lab's next earnings date?
Rocket Lab is scheduled to report its next earnings on November 9, 2026. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters.
Does Rocket Lab pay a dividend?
Rocket Lab does not pay a dividend. Capital is deployed into business operations, including $156.3M in FY2025 capital expenditures and $270.7M in R&D expense.
What is Rocket Lab's cash and debt position?
As of June 30, 2026, Rocket Lab reported $2.30B in cash and short-term investments and $133.7M in total debt, resulting in net cash of $2.17B.
What is the consensus analyst target for RKLB?
The mean analyst price target is $102.15, which stands 100.9% above the last closing price of $50.84 as of October 16, 2026.
What is Rocket Lab's revenue outlook?
Analysts estimate revenue of $958.6M for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, and $1.33B for the next fiscal year, representing expected revenue growth of 38.8%.