Phillips 66 (PSX) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: PSXAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

PSX AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Phillips 66 is a diversified energy manufacturing and logistics company operating across Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing and Specialties. The company generated $152.17B in trailing twelve months revenue with an operating margin of 8.5%. Its shares have gained 135.2% over the past year, trading at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 9.7x.

Market cap
$116.98B
Revenue (TTM)
$152.17B
P/E
16.8x
fwd 9.7x
1Y return
135.2%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$280.47
-4.3% vs last close

Bull case

  • Quarterly earnings surged 344.9% year-over-year in the period ended June 30, 2026, driven by a 53.1% quarterly revenue increase.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.7x, which sits well below the peer group median of 14.3x for S&P 500 Energy companies.
  • The company returned substantial cash to shareholders in FY2025, funding $1.21B in buybacks and $1.92B in dividends from $2.73B in free cash flow.

Bear case

  • The consensus mean price target of $280.47 sits 4.3% below the recent closing price of $293.17.
  • Analysts project next fiscal year revenue to drop 10.4% to $154.10B and EPS to contract 7.8% to $29.95.
  • Annual revenue fell for three consecutive fiscal years, declining from $170.12B in FY2022 to $132.19B in FY2025.

What Phillips 66 does

Phillips 66 operates as a diversified energy manufacturing and logistics company with four primary segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, and Marketing and Specialties (M&S). Its Midstream operations transport crude oil and feedstocks, offer terminaling and storage, and process natural gas liquids. In Chemicals, the company produces ethylene, aromatics, styrenics, and specialty chemicals. The Refining segment runs 12 refineries across the United States and Europe, turning crude oil into gasolines, distillates, aviation fuels, and renewable fuels. Marketing and Specialties purchases, distributes, and markets refined petroleum products across the US and Europe, alongside specialty products like base oils and lubricants.

Growth and profitability

Phillips 66 saw revenue decline from $170.12B in FY2022 to $147.26B in FY2023, $143.12B in FY2024, and $132.19B in FY2025. Over the five years from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue grew at a CAGR of 15.7%. Net income moved from $11.02B in FY2022 to $7.00B in FY2023, $2.12B in FY2024, and rebounded to $4.40B in FY2025, accompanied by a 3.3% net margin. Operating margin stood at 2.7% in FY2025. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue reached $152.17B. In that latest quarter, quarterly revenue rose 53.1% year-over-year while quarterly earnings grew 344.9%.

PSX income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Phillips 66 held $4.10B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $20.57B, resulting in net debt of $16.47B. Total assets were $81.81B and shareholders' equity was $31.51B. The company maintained a current ratio of 1.32 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.65. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $4.96B and free cash flow was $2.73B. Capital expenditures were $2.23B, while the company returned capital through $1.21B in share buybacks and $1.92B in dividends.

PSX balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At $293.17, Phillips 66 trades at a trailing P/E of 16.8x, below the 18.2x median of its S&P 500 Energy peers. Its forward P/E is 9.7x, compared to the peer median of 14.3x. The stock trades at an EV/EBITDA of 9.2x, higher than the peer median of 7.9x, and a price-to-sales multiple of 0.8x versus the peer median of 2.4x. Over the past year, PSX gained 135.2%, outpacing the 16.8% return of the S&P 500 (SPY). Over five years, PSX returned 332.8% versus 83.0% for SPY.

PSX key metrics →

PSX dividend

Phillips 66 pays a forward annual dividend of $5.32 per share, representing a 1.81% dividend yield. The payout ratio stands at 33.7%, and dividends are distributed quarterly. The company has paid dividends for 15 consecutive years, with an annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of 5.7%. The last ex-dividend date was August 18, 2026.

PSX dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage consists of 8 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, and 2 Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target of $280.47 is 4.3% below the last close of $293.17. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $32.48 on revenue of $171.95B. For the next fiscal year, 19 analysts project EPS of $29.95, representing a 7.8% decline. Phillips 66 beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, and the next earnings date is October 28, 2026.

PSX forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Total debt stood at $20.57B as of June 30, 2026, leaving net debt at $16.47B against $4.10B in cash.
  • Operating margin for the trailing twelve months was 8.5%, significantly below the 27.1% median of its S&P 500 Energy peers.
  • The stock trades 54.1% above its 200-day average after a 131.9% year-to-date run, leaving it close to its 52-week high of $297.42.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this PSX AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Phillips 66 (PSX). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: PSX income statement, PSX balance sheet, PSX key metrics, PSX analyst forecast, PSX chart. See the PSX stock overview for the latest quote and news.

PSX AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Phillips 66's dividend yield and payout schedule?

Phillips 66 pays a forward dividend yield of 1.81%, which equals an annual payout of $5.32 per share. The dividend is distributed quarterly, supported by a 33.7% payout ratio.

How did Phillips 66 perform in its latest reported quarter?

For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue increased 53.1% year-over-year. Quarterly earnings grew 344.9% over the same period.

What are analysts expecting for Phillips 66's full-year earnings?

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus expectations call for EPS of $32.48, representing 404.4% growth, on revenue of $171.95B. For the subsequent fiscal year, analysts expect EPS to decline 7.8% to $29.95.

How does Phillips 66's valuation compare to its peers?

Phillips 66 trades at a forward P/E of 9.7x, below the 14.3x median of its S&P 500 Energy peers. However, its EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.2x is higher than the peer median of 7.9x.

More Energy AI stock analysis