Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) AI Stock Analysis

Marathon Petroleum Corporation operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily within the United States across two main segments: Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and feedstocks across the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions, producing transportation fuels such as gasolines, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt, alongside aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells products via wholesale channels, Marathon-branded outlets, and long-term contracts like ARCO. The Midstream segment gathers, processes, transports, and fractionates natural gas and natural gas liquids, utilizing pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges.

Marathon Petroleum recorded a 5-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 13.7% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue shifted from $119.98B in FY2021 to a peak of $177.45B in FY2022, before falling to $148.38B in FY2023, $138.86B in FY2024, and $132.70B in FY2025. Net income was $4.05B in FY2025, recovering from $3.44B in FY2024, with an operating margin of 4.3%. For the latest quarter ending June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue growth accelerated to 53.7% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings grew 348.0% year-over-year, supporting trailing twelve month earnings per share of $28.88.

As of June 30, 2026, Marathon Petroleum held $7.77B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $34.29B, resulting in net debt of $26.52B. Shareholders' equity was $19.08B, corresponding to a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.80 and a current ratio of 1.25. In FY2025, operating cash flow stood at $8.25B and free cash flow was $4.77B. Cash capital allocation included capital expenditures of $3.49B, share buybacks of $3.49B, and dividends paid of $1.14B, while the company reduced its share count by 52.2% over 5 years.

Marathon Petroleum trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6x and a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 5.5x, compared to the median of its S&P 500 Energy peers of 18.2x and 14.3x, respectively. Its enterprise value-to-EBITDA stands at 7.7x, below the peer median of 8.4x, while its price-to-sales ratio is 0.9x versus the peer median of 2.4x. Over the past year, MPC generated a return of 168.3%, outperforming the S&P 500 benchmark return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year period, the stock delivered a 700.0% return compared to 83.0% for the S&P 500.

Marathon Petroleum pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward rate of $4.00 per share, yielding 0.84%. The company maintains a payout ratio of 15.1% and has paid dividends for 16 consecutive years. Over the past 5 years, the dividend grew at an annualized rate of 10.0%, with the most recent ex-dividend date on August 19, 2026.

Wall Street coverage includes 5 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 9 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $442.33, representing a 7.5% decline from the last close of $478.07. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $63.69 on revenue of $171.71B. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and the next earnings date is November 3, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: MPC income statement, MPC balance sheet, MPC key metrics, MPC analyst forecast, MPC chart. See the MPC stock overview for the latest quote and news.