North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA) AI Stock Analysis
NOA AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchNorth American Construction Group Ltd. provides heavy construction, mining, and equipment maintenance services in Canada, the US, and Australia. While annual revenue expanded to $1.28B in FY2025, net income decreased to $33.8M and free cash flow was negative at -$26.5M. The company carries a net debt load of $1.02B alongside a dividend yield of 2.91%.
- Market cap
- $311.9M
- Revenue (TTM)
- $1.34B
- P/E
- 14.3x fwd 6.6x
- 1Y return
- -17.7% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $26.50 128.7% vs last close
Bull case
- The company maintained a 5-year revenue CAGR of 20.8%, reaching $1.34B in trailing twelve month revenue.
- Valuation multiples remain discounted relative to peers, with a forward P/E of 6.6x and an EV/EBITDA of 4.5x compared to US-listed Energy peer medians of 12.7x and 8.0x, respectively.
- Analysts project current fiscal year EPS growth of 52.3% to $1.61, supporting a mean price target of $26.50.
Bear case
- The balance sheet carries $1.19B in total debt and $1.02B in net debt, resulting in an elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 2.47.
- Free cash flow has remained negative for two consecutive years, coming in at -$66.7M in FY2024 and -$26.5M in FY2025.
- The company has missed profit estimates recently, recording 0 EPS beats across the last 4 quarters.
What North American Construction does
North American Construction Group Ltd. provides equipment maintenance, mining, and heavy construction services across Canada, the United States, and Australia. Its Heavy Construction & Mining division handles constructability reviews, design-build construction, project management, and contract mining, including overburden and muskeg removal, site preparation, dyke and tailings dam construction, airstrips, mechanically stabilized earth walls, and reclamation services. Its Equipment Maintenance Services division delivers fuel and lube servicing, portable steaming, inspections, parts supply, major overhauls, equipment refurbishment, haul truck brake testing, welding, and fabrication. The company operated a heavy equipment fleet of 632 units as of December 31, 2021.
Growth and profitability
North American Construction Group increased revenue from $654.1M in FY2021 to $1.28B in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 20.8%. However, operating margin fell from 13.2% in FY2024 to 8.6% in FY2025, while gross margin tightened to 12.6%. Net income peaked at $67.4M in FY2022 before retreating to $33.8M in FY2025, with EPS dropping to $1.07. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $1.34B with an operating margin of 6.7% and a profit margin of 2.4%. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 25.1% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings growth was 1.9%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, the company held $167.7M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $1.19B, resulting in net debt of $1.02B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.47. Shareholders' equity was $480.4M, with total assets of $2.25B and a current ratio of 1.07. In FY2025, operating cash flow generated $254.3M, which was outpaced by capital expenditures of $280.9M, leading to free cash flow of -$26.5M. During that fiscal year, the company allocated $41.7M to share buybacks and $13.4M to dividends, contributing to a 5-year share count change of -20.4%.
Valuation and performance
Trading at $11.59, North American Construction Group holds a market cap of $311.9M and an enterprise value of $1.06B. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 14.3x and a forward P/E of 6.6x, compared to the median of its US-listed Energy peers of 15.0x trailing and 12.7x forward. Its EV/EBITDA of 4.5x sits below the peer median of 8.0x, and its price-to-sales multiple is 0.2x against the peer median of 1.8x. Over the past year, the stock returned -17.7%, trailing the S&P 500's return of 16.8%, and its 5-year return is -21.2% versus 83.0% for the index.
NOA dividend
North American Construction Group pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward payout of $0.34, yielding 2.91% with a payout ratio of 30.9%. Dividends have been paid for 13 consecutive years, achieving a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 23.4%. Its most recent ex-dividend date was August 28, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage includes 3 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 3 Hold recommendations. The mean price target is $26.50, representing a 128.7% premium over the last close of $11.59. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $1.61 and revenue of $1.52B. The company recorded 0 EPS beats over the last 4 quarters, and the next earnings date is November 11, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Heavy capital spending of $280.9M in FY2025 continues to weigh on cash generation, leaving a narrow cash reserve of $167.7M against $1.19B in debt.
- Net margin decreased from 7.9% in FY2021 to 2.6% in FY2025, highlighting margin compression across operations.
- With a beta of 1.18 and a 1-year return of -17.7%, the equity exhibits higher market volatility while underperforming the broader market.
- A current ratio of 1.07 provides tight working capital coverage for ongoing heavy construction commitments.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this NOA AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of North American Construction Group Ltd. (NOA). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: NOA income statement, NOA balance sheet, NOA key metrics, NOA analyst forecast, NOA chart. See the NOA stock overview for the latest quote and news.
NOA AI stock analysis FAQ
What is North American Construction Group's dividend yield?
North American Construction Group offers an annual forward dividend of $0.34 per share, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 2.91% and a payout ratio of 30.9%.
How much debt does NOA have?
As of June 30, 2026, the company held total debt of $1.19B and net debt of $1.02B, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.47.
When does North American Construction Group report earnings next?
The company's next earnings report is scheduled for November 11, 2026.
What is the consensus analyst price target for NOA?
The mean analyst price target is $26.50, which is 128.7% above the last closing price of $11.59.