Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) AI Stock Analysis
MRCY AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchMercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) develops advanced electronics, modules, and subsystems for aerospace and defense applications. In FY2026, the company generated $983.6M in revenue, marking 7.9% annual growth, while reporting a net loss of -$29.7M. It trades at a forward P/E of 50.0x with a market capitalization of $4.52B as of October 16, 2026.
- Market cap
- $4.52B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $983.6M
- P/E
- — fwd 50.0x
- 1Y return
- -3.7% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $114.80 54.6% vs last close
Bull case
- FY2026 free cash flow reached $68.1M on operating cash flow of $102.4M.
- Analysts expect current fiscal year EPS to increase 57.6% to $1.67 on revenue of $1.09B.
- The consensus analyst price target of $114.80 implies 54.6% upside from the recent close of $74.27.
Bear case
- The company reported a net loss of -$29.7M in FY2026 and remained unprofitable across the last five fiscal years.
- Mercury Systems trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 81.4x, substantially higher than the US-listed Industrials peer median of 13.9x.
- In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly earnings dropped 96.7% year-over-year.
What Mercury Systems does
Headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts, Mercury Systems, Inc. specializes in the design, manufacturing, and distribution of advanced components, products, modules, and subsystems primarily tailored for aerospace and defense applications across the United States, Europe, and the Asia Pacific region. Supporting approximately 300 programs and collaborating with 25 defense contractors and commercial aviation customers, its portfolio includes power amplifiers, switches, oscillators, memory devices, and monolithic microwave integrated circuits. The company also produces embedded processing modules, integrated radio frequency assemblies, signals intelligence payloads, and technologies for modern electronic warfare applications and small unmanned aerial systems.
Growth and profitability
Mercury Systems generated revenue of $973.9M in both FY2022 and FY2023, before declining 14.2% to $835.3M in FY2024. Revenue rebounded by 9.2% in FY2025 to $912.0M and grew 7.9% to $983.6M in FY2026, resulting in a 5-year revenue CAGR of 1.3%. Gross margin stood at 24.6% in FY2026 compared to 32.5% in FY2022. The company recorded net losses across each reported fiscal year, including -$137.6M in FY2024 and -$29.7M in FY2026, alongside an operating margin of 2.1%. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue increased 6.1% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings fell 96.7%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Mercury Systems held $214.3M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $500.9M, leaving net debt at $286.6M. The company maintains a current ratio of 2.96 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33, supported by shareholders' equity of $1.50B and total assets of $2.32B. In FY2026, operating cash flow reached $102.4M and free cash flow was $68.1M. Capital expenditures totaled $34.3M, while share buybacks used $15.0M. Over five years, the share count grew 10.3%.
Valuation and performance
Mercury Systems trades at a forward P/E of 50.0x, a price-to-sales ratio of 4.6x, and an EV/EBITDA of 81.4x, all positioned above the median of its US-listed Industrials peers at 17.2x, 1.5x, and 13.9x, respectively. The company carries an enterprise value of $5.29B and a market cap of $4.52B. Over the past year, MRCY shares fell 3.7%, trailing the 16.8% return of the S&P 500. Over a 5-year timeframe, the stock gained 48.3% compared to an 83.0% gain for the S&P 500.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analyst ratings on Mercury Systems include 6 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell. The mean price target is $114.80, representing a 54.6% premium over the last close of $74.27. For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2027, consensus estimates project revenue of $1.09B and EPS of $1.67, reflecting 57.6% EPS growth. Mercury Systems has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 10, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Operating margins remain low at 2.1% in FY2026 and 1.2% over the trailing 12 months.
- Total debt of $500.9M exceeds cash reserves of $214.3M, resulting in net debt of $286.6M.
- The 5-year revenue CAGR of 1.3% indicates slow multi-year top-line expansion.
- Short interest stands at 9.5% of float, signaling elevated bearish interest.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this MRCY AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: MRCY income statement, MRCY balance sheet, MRCY key metrics, MRCY analyst forecast, MRCY chart. See the MRCY stock overview for the latest quote and news.
MRCY AI stock analysis FAQ
What does Mercury Systems, Inc. do?
Mercury Systems designs and manufactures advanced electronic components, modules, and sub-assemblies for aerospace, defense, and electronic warfare programs across the U.S., Europe, and Asia Pacific.
When is Mercury Systems' next earnings release?
The company is scheduled to report its next earnings on November 10, 2026.
Does Mercury Systems pay a dividend?
Mercury Systems does not pay a dividend. In FY2026, it deployed capital toward $34.3M in capital expenditures and $15.0M in share buybacks.
What is the consensus price target for MRCY?
The mean analyst price target is $114.80, which sits 54.6% above the last closing price of $74.27.
What is Mercury Systems' debt position?
As of June 30, 2026, Mercury Systems carried $500.9M in total debt and $214.3M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $286.6M and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.33.