MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: MDUAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

MDU AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

MDU Resources Group, Inc. (NYSE: MDU) is a Bismarck-based diversified company operating regulated energy delivery and infrastructure businesses. In the trailing twelve months, the company generated $1.83B in revenue with a profit margin of 10.8% and an EPS of $0.94. While FY2025 revenue rose 6.7% to $1.88B, capital expenditures of $792.0M contributed to negative free cash flow of -$318.6M.

Market cap
$4.00B
Revenue (TTM)
$1.83B
P/E
20.2x
fwd 17.3x
1Y return
2.8%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$23.00
21.1% vs last close

Bull case

  • Quarterly earnings grew 47.2% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • Wall Street analysts hold a mean price target of $23.00, implying 21.1% upside over the last close of $19.00.
  • MDU has delivered 41 consecutive years of dividend payments, supported by an annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of 11.2%.

Bear case

  • Five-year revenue CAGR through FY2025 stands at -19.5%.
  • Capital expenditures of $792.0M in FY2025 drove free cash flow to -$318.6M.
  • Trailing twelve-month operating margin of 12.5% trails the US-listed Utilities peer median of 22.6%.

What MDU Resources does

MDU Resources Group, Inc. operates in regulated energy delivery, construction materials, and services across the United States. Its Electric segment generates, transmits, and distributes electricity to customers across Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming using 3,500 miles of transmission lines and 4,800 miles of distribution lines. The Natural Gas Distribution segment delivers natural gas in eight states, including Idaho, Minnesota, Oregon, and Washington. Its Pipeline segment provides regulated transportation and underground storage across the Rocky Mountain and northern Great Plains regions. Additionally, the Construction Materials and Contracting segment supplies aggregates, asphalt mix, ready-mixed concrete, and cement.

Growth and profitability

Annual revenue decreased from $3.45B in FY2021 to $1.75B in FY2022, before reaching $1.88B in FY2025 with a 6.7% increase. Over the five-year period from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue posted a CAGR of -19.5%. Operating margin rose from 9.6% in FY2021 to 15.5% in FY2025, while net income finished FY2025 at $190.4M, down from $281.1M in FY2024. For the trailing twelve months ending June 30, 2026, revenue was $1.83B and EPS was $0.94. In the latest quarter ending June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 6.9% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings grew 47.2% year-over-year.

MDU income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, MDU Resources held $46.3M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $2.58B, resulting in net debt of $2.53B. Shareholders' equity stood at $2.93B, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.88 and a current ratio of 0.99. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $473.4M, but capital expenditures of $792.0M produced negative free cash flow of -$318.6M. The company also allocated $108.2M toward dividends paid during FY2025, while its share count expanded 3.9% over five years.

MDU balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At $19.00 per share, MDU has a market cap of $4.00B and an enterprise value of $6.43B. It trades at a trailing P/E of 20.2x and a forward P/E of 17.3x, compared to medians of 20.6x and 17.2x for its US-listed Utilities peers. Its EV/EBITDA stands at 11.8x versus the peer median of 12.1x, while its price-to-sales of 2.2x sits below the peer median of 2.4x. Over the past year, MDU returned 2.8%, trailing the S&P 500's 16.8% return, though its 5-year return of 86.4% outpaced the index's 83.0%.

MDU key metrics →

MDU dividend

MDU pays a forward annual dividend of $0.57 per share, representing a 2.97% dividend yield and a 60.1% payout ratio. The quarterly dividend has been paid for 41 consecutive years, delivering an annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of 11.2%. The last ex-dividend date was September 10, 2026.

MDU dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street analysts carry 5 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, and 3 Hold ratings on MDU. The mean price target is $23.00, representing 21.1% upside from the last close of $19.00. For FY2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $0.98, up 5.3%, on revenue of $1.99B. For FY2027, 8 analysts project EPS of $1.06 and revenue of $2.13B. The company beat EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for November 5, 2026.

MDU forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Net debt of $2.53B and cash of only $46.3M create reliance on steady operating cash flow.
  • Persistent negative free cash flow over the past five fiscal years, including -$318.6M in FY2025, requires ongoing capital outlays.
  • Short interest represents 11.7% of the float, indicating notable short positioning.
  • The stock trades 6.8% below its 200-day moving average as of October 16, 2026.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this MDU AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of MDU Resources Group, Inc. (MDU). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: MDU income statement, MDU balance sheet, MDU key metrics, MDU analyst forecast, MDU chart. See the MDU stock overview for the latest quote and news.

MDU AI stock analysis FAQ

What is MDU's current dividend yield and payout ratio?

MDU pays a forward annual dividend of $0.57 per share, yielding 2.97% with a payout ratio of 60.1%. It has paid dividends for 41 consecutive years.

How does MDU compare to other utility stocks on valuation?

MDU trades at a trailing P/E of 20.2x and an EV/EBITDA of 11.8x, compared to median values of 20.6x and 12.1x for US-listed Utilities peers.

What is Wall Street's price target for MDU?

The mean analyst price target is $23.00, which is 21.1% above the last closing price of $19.00. The consensus includes 5 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, and 3 Hold ratings.

When is MDU's next earnings report?

MDU's next earnings report is scheduled for November 5, 2026.

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