KeyCorp (KEY) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: KEYAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

KEY AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

KeyCorp (KEY) is a regional financial services company providing retail and commercial banking solutions across the United States. In FY2025, the company generated $11.19B in revenue and $1.83B in net income, following a net loss of -$161.0M in FY2024. Over the trailing twelve months, KeyCorp achieved an operating margin of 34.7% and pays a forward dividend yielding 4.10%.

Market cap
$21.33B
Revenue (TTM)
$7.37B
P/E
11.6x
fwd 9.9x
1Y return
24.0%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$25.11
25.6% vs last close

Bull case

  • KeyCorp's quarterly earnings grew 25.3% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 9.9x, lower than the S&P 500 Financial Services peer median of 12.6x.
  • The company offers an annual forward dividend of $0.82 per share, yielding 4.10% with 40 consecutive years of payments.

Bear case

  • KeyCorp's 5-year return of 10.8% significantly trailed the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.
  • Share count has expanded by 14.6% over the past 5 years.
  • Trailing twelve months revenue of $7.37B remains below the FY2025 full-year revenue of $11.19B.

What KeyCorp does

KeyCorp operates as the parent company of KeyBank National Association, delivering retail and commercial banking services throughout the United States. Its operations are divided into two main segments: Consumer Bank and Commercial Bank. Product lines include deposits, personal finance tools, mortgage and home equity loans, credit cards, treasury services, and commercial payments. In addition, the firm offers wealth management, asset management, investment advisory, and trust administration. For corporate clients, KeyCorp provides syndicated finance, debt and equity capital market solutions, derivatives, equipment finance, public finance, and commercial mortgage loans across industries like healthcare, energy, and technology.

Growth and profitability

KeyCorp grew revenue at a 5-year CAGR of 9.4% between FY2020 and FY2025. Annual revenue expanded 23.6% in FY2025 to $11.19B, up from $9.05B in FY2024 and $10.23B in FY2023. Operating margin improved to 20.6% in FY2025 after falling to -3.4% in FY2024. Net income rebounded to $1.83B in FY2025, compared to -$161.0M in FY2024 and $967.0M in FY2023. For the trailing twelve months through June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $7.37B with a profit margin of 27.5% and EPS of $1.72. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 10.1% year-over-year while quarterly earnings rose 25.3%.

KEY income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, KeyCorp held $40.17B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $14.65B, resulting in net cash of $25.52B. Total assets stood at $191.32B with shareholders' equity of $19.80B, giving a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.74 and a current ratio of 0.35. Operating cash flow in FY2025 reached $2.21B, supporting free cash flow of $2.10B. Capital expenditures were $107.0M, share buybacks totaled $235.0M, and dividends paid reached $1.05B.

KEY balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

KeyCorp closed at $19.99 on October 16, 2026, representing a market capitalization of $21.33B. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 11.6x and a forward P/E of 9.9x, both below the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers (14.2x trailing and 12.6x forward). Its price-to-sales multiple is 2.9x compared to the peer median of 3.1x. Over the past year, KEY gained 24.0%, outpacing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%, but its 5-year return of 10.8% trailed the index return of 83.0%.

KEY key metrics →

KEY dividend

KeyCorp pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward payout of $0.82 per share, representing a 4.10% dividend yield. The company has paid dividends for 40 consecutive years and delivered a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 2.1%. The dividend payout ratio stands at 48.2%, and the last ex-dividend date was September 1, 2026.

KEY dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street analysts hold 9 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, and 8 Hold ratings on KeyCorp, with no Sell or Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target of $25.11 represents a 25.6% upside compared to the last close of $19.99. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $1.84 on revenue of $8.10B. KeyCorp has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings date scheduled for October 20, 2026.

KEY forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • The company's current ratio is 0.35 as of June 30, 2026, reflecting potential short-term liquidity constraints.
  • Operating performance has shown volatility, including a net loss of -$161.0M and negative operating margin of -3.4% in FY2024.
  • The stock is trading 5.9% below its 200-day moving average and remains down 0.3% year-to-date.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this KEY AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of KeyCorp (KEY). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: KEY income statement, KEY balance sheet, KEY key metrics, KEY analyst forecast, KEY chart. See the KEY stock overview for the latest quote and news.

KEY AI stock analysis FAQ

What is KeyCorp's dividend yield and payout schedule?

KeyCorp pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward payout of $0.82, which equates to a 4.10% dividend yield. The company has paid dividends for 40 consecutive years and maintains a payout ratio of 48.2%.

How do KeyCorp's valuation multiples compare to peers?

KeyCorp trades at a trailing P/E of 11.6x and a forward P/E of 9.9x. These multiples are lower than the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers, which stand at 14.2x and 12.6x, respectively.

What are analysts expecting for KeyCorp's earnings?

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $1.84, representing 22.6% growth, on revenue of $8.10B. For the following fiscal year, analysts forecast EPS of $2.15 on revenue of $8.66B.

What is KeyCorp's balance sheet position?

As of June 30, 2026, KeyCorp held $40.17B in cash and short-term investments against $14.65B in total debt, giving net cash of $25.52B. Shareholders' equity was $19.80B with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.74.

More Financial Services AI stock analysis