The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) AI Stock Analysis
HD AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchThe Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is a home improvement retailer with a market cap of $308.91B and trailing twelve months revenue of $169.18B. While annual net income declined from $17.11B in FY2023 to $14.16B in FY2026, the company continues to return capital through a 3.01% dividend yield.
- Market cap
- $308.91B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $169.18B
- P/E
- 21.5x fwd 19.8x
- 1Y return
- -17.8% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $379.75 22.6% vs last close
Bull case
- The Home Depot maintains steady top-line expansion, delivering 5.7% year-over-year quarterly revenue growth in the latest quarter ending July 31, 2026.
- Analysts project a mean price target of $379.75, implying a 22.6% premium over the closing price of $309.63.
- The company demonstrated strong cash generation in FY2026, producing $12.65B in free cash flow while supporting a 3.01% dividend yield.
Bear case
- Operating margins contracted consistently from 15.2% in FY2022 to 12.7% in FY2026, leading to a decline in net income to $14.16B.
- The balance sheet carries substantial leverage, with total debt of $62.57B against $2.08B in cash and short-term investments, producing a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.77.
- The stock trades at a forward P/E of 19.8x, representing a premium over the median of its S&P 500 Consumer Cyclical peers at 15.6x.
What Home Depot does
The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a retailer specializing in home improvement products and services. Through its store network, the company sells building materials, home decor items, lawn and garden supplies, and facilities maintenance products. It also provides installation services for flooring, cabinets, countertops, HVAC systems, and windows. The Home Depot serves homeowners, professional renovators, general contractors, maintenance professionals, and specialty tradespeople like electricians, plumbers, and painters. In addition to physical stores, the company operates digital platforms including homedepot.com, blinds.com, and thecompanystore.com. Headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia, it operated over 2,300 stores across the United States as of December 31, 2021.
Growth and profitability
Between FY2022 and FY2026, Home Depot grew revenue from $151.16B to $164.68B, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 4.5%. Gross margin held steady at 33.6% in FY2022 and 33.3% in FY2026. However, operating margin fell from 15.2% in FY2022 to 12.7% in FY2026, while net margin declined from 10.9% to 8.6%. Over this timeframe, annual net income fell from $16.43B to $14.16B, and diluted EPS moved from $15.52 to $14.70. For the latest quarter ended July 31, 2026, quarterly revenue growth was 5.7% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings grew 4.6% year-over-year, bringing trailing twelve months revenue to $169.18B and EPS to $14.37.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of the quarter ended July 31, 2026, The Home Depot held $2.08B in cash and short-term investments against $62.57B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $60.48B. The company closed the quarter with a current ratio of 1.08 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.77 on $16.62B of shareholders' equity. In FY2026, the company generated $16.32B in operating cash flow and $12.65B in free cash flow. Home Depot allocated $3.68B to capital expenditures and paid $9.15B in dividends during FY2026.
Valuation and performance
At a share price of $309.63 as of October 16, 2026, Home Depot traded at a trailing P/E of 21.5x and a forward P/E of 19.8x. These multiples stand above the median of its S&P 500 Consumer Cyclical peers, which posted a trailing P/E of 19.7x and a forward P/E of 15.6x. The company's EV/EBITDA of 14.5x also trades above the peer median of 13.2x, while its price-to-sales of 1.8x sits below the peer median of 2.0x. Over the past year, Home Depot shares fell 17.8%, underperforming the 16.8% return for the S&P 500.
HD dividend
Home Depot pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward payout of $9.32 per share, representing a 3.01% dividend yield. The company has paid consecutive dividends for 40 years, with a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 8.9%. Its payout ratio stands at 62.7%, and the most recent ex-dividend date was September 3, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analysts maintain 18 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, and 14 Hold ratings on Home Depot, with 0 Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $379.75, representing a 22.6% upside compared to the last close of $309.63. For the current fiscal year ending January 31, 2027, consensus estimates project revenue of $171.55B and EPS of $15.02. Home Depot beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 17, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- High balance sheet leverage is evident in net debt of $60.48B, which could limit capital allocation flexibility if cash flows tighten.
- Net profit margin contracted to 8.6% in FY2026 from 10.9% in FY2022, highlighting persistent margin pressure.
- Shareholder returns over longer horizons have lagged the broader market, with a 5-year return of 0.3% compared to 83.0% for the S&P 500.
- Annual dividend commitments required $9.15B in FY2026, consuming a large portion of the $12.65B in free cash flow with a payout ratio of 62.7%.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this HD AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of The Home Depot, Inc. (HD). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: HD income statement, HD balance sheet, HD key metrics, HD analyst forecast, HD chart. See the HD stock overview for the latest quote and news.
HD AI stock analysis FAQ
What is Home Depot's current dividend yield and payout history?
Home Depot offers a dividend yield of 3.01% with a forward annual dividend of $9.32 per share. The company has paid consecutive dividends for 40 years and maintained an annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of 8.9%.
How does Home Depot's valuation compare to its sector peers?
Home Depot trades at a forward P/E of 19.8x and EV/EBITDA of 14.5x. Both multiples exceed the median of its S&P 500 Consumer Cyclical peers, which stand at 15.6x and 13.2x, respectively.
What is Home Depot's debt situation?
As of July 31, 2026, Home Depot held total debt of $62.57B and cash and short-term investments of $2.08B, leaving net debt at $60.48B. This results in a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.77 and a current ratio of 1.08.
What are Wall Street analysts forecasting for Home Depot?
Analysts hold a mean price target of $379.75, which is 22.6% above the last close of $309.63. For the fiscal year ending January 31, 2027, consensus estimates call for revenue of $171.55B and EPS of $15.02.