HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: HCIAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

HCI AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) is a diversified holding company providing residential property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, real estate, and information technology solutions primarily in Florida. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $952.1M in revenue with a net profit margin of 32.6%. Supported by a net cash position of $875.2M as of June 30, 2026, HCI trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6x.

Market cap
$2.47B
Revenue (TTM)
$952.1M
P/E
8.6x
fwd 8.9x
1Y return
5.3%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$241.67
21.7% vs last close

Bull case

  • HCI generated $444.4M in free cash flow in FY2025, providing substantial operational cash generation.
  • The company maintains a strong liquidity profile with $875.2M in net cash as of June 30, 2026.
  • HCI trades at a forward P/E of 8.9x, sitting below the median of its US-listed Financial Services peers of 10.8x.

Bear case

  • Analyst estimates forecast EPS to decline by 4.2% to $21.76 in FY2026 and by 5.3% to $20.60 in the following fiscal year.
  • The stock underperformed the broader market over the past year, returning 5.3% compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500.
  • HCI previously experienced significant underwriting losses, generating net income of -$58.5M and an operating margin of -13.9% in FY2022.

What HCI does

HCI Group, Inc. operates as a diversified company involved in property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, real estate, and information technology ventures primarily within Florida. Founded in 2006 and headquartered in Tampa, Florida, the company specializes in residential insurance products including homeowners, fire, flood, and wind-only insurance to homeowners, condominium owners, and tenants. HCI Group also offers reinsurance programs and manages commercial real estate, including waterfront properties, retail shopping centers, and office buildings. Additionally, its information technology division develops web and mobile platforms such as SAMS, Harmony, ClaimColony, and AtlasViewer.

Growth and profitability

HCI delivered a 5-year revenue CAGR of 26.7% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue grew from $402.6M in FY2021 to $900.9M in FY2025, with net income shifting from -$58.5M in FY2022 to $299.0M in FY2025. During FY2025, operating margin reached 47.7% and diluted earnings per share reached $22.68. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $952.1M with an operating margin of 45.4% and diluted EPS of $23.20. For the quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 11.1% year-over-year while quarterly earnings expanded 8.2%.

HCI income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, HCI held $942.7M in cash and short-term investments against $67.5M in total debt, yielding net cash of $875.2M. Shareholders' equity stood at $1.08B, supported by a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06 and a current ratio of 57.95. In FY2025, operating cash flow totaled $446.7M and free cash flow reached $444.4M. Capital allocation in FY2025 included $3.6M for capital expenditures, $1.5M for share buybacks, and $19.3M paid out in dividends.

HCI balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At its last close of $198.55 on October 16, 2026, HCI had a market cap of $2.47B and an enterprise value of $1.39B. HCI trades at a trailing P/E of 8.6x and a forward P/E of 8.9x, compared to the median of its US-listed Financial Services peers at 12.1x trailing and 10.8x forward. Its price-to-sales ratio sits at 2.6x versus the peer median of 3.2x. Over the past year, the stock returned 5.3%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%, while over five years it gained 76.5% compared to 83.0% for the S&P 500.

HCI key metrics →

HCI dividend

HCI pays a quarterly dividend totaling an annualized $1.60 per share, which represents a dividend yield of 0.81%. The company has maintained consecutive dividend payments for 17 years, supported by a payout ratio of 6.9%. Its 5-year annualized dividend growth stands at 0.0%, and its most recent ex-dividend date was August 21, 2026.

HCI dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage consists of 3 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, and 1 Hold ratings. The mean price target of $241.67 implies 21.7% upside compared to the last close of $198.55. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $997.1M and EPS of $21.76, representing an EPS decline of 4.2%. Over the last four quarters, HCI exceeded EPS estimates in all 4 quarters. The next earnings date is scheduled for November 5, 2026.

HCI forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Exposure to severe weather events in Florida creates earnings volatility, as seen when operating margins dropped to -13.9% in FY2022.
  • Shareholder equity has faced dilution over time, with total share count increasing 29.0% over the last 5 years.
  • Dividend distributions have remained stagnant, showing a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 0.0%.
  • Top-line expansion is expected to decelerate to 6.9% in the next fiscal year compared to its 5-year CAGR of 26.7%.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this HCI AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of HCI Group, Inc. (HCI). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: HCI income statement, HCI balance sheet, HCI key metrics, HCI analyst forecast, HCI chart. See the HCI stock overview for the latest quote and news.

HCI AI stock analysis FAQ

What does HCI Group do?

HCI Group, Inc. operates in property and casualty insurance, reinsurance, real estate investments, and information technology platforms primarily in Florida.

What is HCI's dividend yield and payout ratio?

HCI pays an annualized dividend of $1.60 per share, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 0.81% and a payout ratio of 6.9%.

How strong is HCI Group's balance sheet?

As of June 30, 2026, HCI held $942.7M in cash and short-term investments and $67.5M in debt, resulting in a net cash balance of $875.2M and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.06.

When is HCI Group's next earnings report?

HCI Group is scheduled to report its next quarterly financial results on November 5, 2026.

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