Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) AI Stock Analysis

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. specializes in the production and export of non-thermal metallurgical coal essential for the steel industry. Headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama, the company operates two underground mines located strategically in Alabama. It primarily sells its high-quality metallurgical coal to blast furnace steel producers across Europe, South America, and Asia. In addition to coal production, Warrior Met Coal extracts natural gas as a byproduct of its mining activities, diversifying its revenue streams. Established in 2015, the company has 1,485 employees and serves as a major supplier across the international steel manufacturing supply chain.

Over the five-year period from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue grew at a CAGR of 10.8%, peaking at $1.74B in FY2022 before dropping to $1.31B in FY2025. Annual net income fell from $641.3M in FY2022 to $57.0M in FY2025, reducing net margin from 36.9% to 4.4%. Operating margin contracted from 46.1% in FY2022 to 3.5% in FY2025, while diluted earnings per share declined to $1.09. However, the quarter ended June 30, 2026, marked a sharp rebound, as quarterly revenue increased 71.3% year-over-year and quarterly earnings grew 1447.8%. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue totaled $1.68B with a profit margin of 13.0%.

As of June 30, 2026, Warrior Met Coal held $322.5M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $235.8M, resulting in net cash of $86.7M. The debt-to-equity ratio stood at 0.10 alongside shareholders' equity of $2.29B and total assets of $2.90B. Operating cash flow in FY2025 was $229.2M, while free cash flow was -$91.0M due to capital expenditures of $320.3M. In FY2025, cash deployment included $17.8M in dividends paid and $9.4M used for share buybacks.

Warrior Met Coal trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 21.6x and a forward P/E of 16.2x, both above the median of its US-listed Basic Materials peers, which sit at 19.7x and 13.4x, respectively. The price-to-sales ratio is 2.8x compared to the peer median of 1.8x, while enterprise value to EBITDA matches closely at 10.4x versus 10.5x. Over the past year, the stock gained 35.6%, outpacing the S&P 500 ETF's 16.8% return. Over five years, the stock is up 276.6%, compared to 83.0% for the index.

Warrior Met Coal pays a quarterly dividend totaling $0.32 annualized, representing a forward dividend yield of 0.36%. The payout ratio is 7.7%, supported by 10 consecutive years of dividend payments. Over the past five years, dividend growth annualized at 9.9%. The most recent ex-dividend date was August 10, 2026.

Wall Street coverage consists of 4 Strong Buy ratings, 3 Hold ratings, and zero Sell ratings. The mean price target is $109.17, implying 21.4% upside over the last closing price of $89.94. For FY2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $2.00B and EPS of $6.64, representing an estimated 508.9% increase in earnings. Over the last four quarters, the company topped EPS expectations twice. The next earnings release date is November 4, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: HCC income statement, HCC balance sheet, HCC key metrics, HCC analyst forecast, HCC chart. See the HCC stock overview for the latest quote and news.