Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: AMRAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

AMR AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE: AMR) is a coal mining company focused on producing metallurgical and thermal coal. The company has experienced declining revenue and margins, recording a net income of -$61.7M in FY2025 and trailing twelve-month revenue of $2.07B. Despite recent operational losses, AMR maintains a strong balance sheet with $327.1M in net cash as of June 30, 2026.

Market cap
$2.11B
Revenue (TTM)
$2.07B
P/E
—
fwd 2.7x
1Y return
7.8%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$178.33
7.0% vs last close

Bull case

  • The balance sheet is solid with $327.1M in net cash, $11.4M in total debt, and a current ratio of 3.41 as of June 30, 2026.
  • Analyst projections indicate a sharp rebound for the next fiscal year, forecasting revenue growth of 19.7% to $2.60B and EPS of $20.37.
  • Shareholder equity per share has been supported by share repurchases, which reduced the share count by 33.6% over five years.

Bear case

  • Operating performance deteriorated significantly from FY2022 to FY2025, culminating in a FY2025 net loss of -$61.7M and an operating margin of -2.9%.
  • Latest quarterly results for June 30, 2026, showed ongoing pressure, with quarterly revenue falling 10.4% and earnings falling 95.6% year-over-year.
  • Free cash flow compressed from $1.32B in FY2022 to $17.8M in FY2025.

What Alpha Metallurgical Resources does

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee, specializes in the production, processing, and sale of metallurgical and thermal coal, primarily within Virginia and West Virginia. Established in 2016 and formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc., the company changed its name to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. in February 2021. As of December 31, 2022, it operated twenty-four active mines and eight coal preparation and load-out facilities. Its operations focus heavily on metallurgical coal, which serves as a critical raw material for steel production across diverse industrial sectors.

Growth and profitability

Revenue peaked in FY2022 at $4.10B before contracting over three consecutive years to $3.47B in FY2023, $2.96B in FY2024, and $2.13B in FY2025. Gross margin contracted from 41.2% in FY2022 to 0.1% in FY2025, while operating margin shifted from 38.5% to -2.9%. Consequently, net income dropped from $1.45B in FY2022 to -$61.7M in FY2025, with EPS falling to -$4.44. In the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $2.07B with an operating margin of -2.9% and an EPS of -$3.59. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue fell 10.4% and quarterly earnings fell 95.6% year-over-year.

AMR income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Alpha Metallurgical Resources held $338.5M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $11.4M, resulting in a net cash position of $327.1M. Shareholders' equity was $1.50B against total assets of $2.26B, supported by a current ratio of 3.41 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01. Operating cash flow in FY2025 was $144.9M and free cash flow was $17.8M. Cash deployment during FY2025 included $127.2M in capital expenditures, $45.2M in share buybacks, and $415,000 in dividends paid. Over five years, the share count declined 33.6%.

AMR balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At a share price of $166.73, Alpha Metallurgical Resources has a market cap of $2.11B and an enterprise value of $1.96B. The stock trades at a forward P/E of 2.7x, below the 13.4x median of its US-listed Basic Materials peers. Its EV to EBITDA ratio of 19.9x sits above the peer median of 10.5x, while its price-to-sales ratio of 1.0x compares to the peer median of 1.8x. Over the past year, AMR returned 7.8% compared to a 16.8% return for the S&P 500, though its five-year return of 184.0% outperformed the index return of 83.0%.

AMR key metrics →

What analysts expect

All 4 analysts covering Alpha Metallurgical Resources rate the stock as a Hold. The mean price target is $178.33, representing 7.0% upside compared to the last close of $166.73. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $2.17B and an EPS of -$2.34. For the next fiscal year, consensus models revenue of $2.60B and an EPS of $20.37. The company beat EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, and the next earnings date is November 5, 2026.

AMR forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Annual revenue has declined for three consecutive fiscal years, dropping 28.0% in FY2025 alone.
  • Trailing twelve-month operating margin is negative at -2.9%, compared to the US-listed Basic Materials peer median of 18.5%.
  • Short interest represents 16.0% of the float, reflecting significant negative sentiment in the market.
  • The stock is trading 11.4% below its 200-day moving average and down 16.6% year-to-date.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this AMR AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (AMR). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: AMR income statement, AMR balance sheet, AMR key metrics, AMR analyst forecast, AMR chart. See the AMR stock overview for the latest quote and news.

AMR AI stock analysis FAQ

What does Alpha Metallurgical Resources do?

Alpha Metallurgical Resources produces, processes, and sells metallurgical and thermal coal, primarily from mining assets in Virginia and West Virginia.

Does AMR carry substantial debt?

No, the company held $11.4M in total debt against $338.5M in cash and short-term investments as of June 30, 2026, leaving it in a net cash position of $327.1M.

What do analysts project for AMR's earnings?

Analysts project an EPS of -$2.34 on revenue of $2.17B for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, followed by an EPS of $20.37 on revenue of $2.60B for the next fiscal year.

When does Alpha Metallurgical Resources report earnings next?

Alpha Metallurgical Resources is scheduled to report earnings on November 5, 2026.

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