HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: HCAAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

HCA AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

HCA Healthcare, Inc. is a major US healthcare provider operating hospitals and outpatient facilities. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $78.01B in revenue with diluted earnings per share of $29.83. However, its capital structure carries $48.78B in total debt and negative shareholders' equity of -$6.58B.

Market cap
$99.34B
Revenue (TTM)
$78.01B
P/E
15.4x
fwd 13.9x
1Y return
10.1%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$460.59
0.4% vs last close

Bull case

  • HCA grew quarterly revenue by 8.7% and quarterly earnings by 11.6% year-over-year in the period ended June 30, 2026.
  • Free cash flow reached $7.69B in FY2025, supporting $10.07B in share repurchases that reduced the 5-year share count by 29.4%.
  • The stock trades at an EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 9.2x, below the median of its S&P 500 Healthcare peers at 15.7x.

Bear case

  • Total debt of $48.78B significantly exceeds cash and short-term investments of $1.01B as of June 30, 2026.
  • The balance sheet carries negative shareholders' equity of -$6.58B alongside a current ratio of 0.78.
  • The stock's 1-year return of 10.1% lagged the S&P 500 benchmark return of 16.8%.

What HCA Healthcare does

HCA Healthcare, Inc. provides healthcare services across the United States and England, operating a network of general and acute care hospitals, outpatient facilities, and psychiatric hospitals. Its medical offerings include intensive care, cardiac care, diagnostic imaging, and emergency care. The company also operates freestanding ambulatory surgery centers, urgent care centers, rehabilitation centers, and physician practices. In addition, HCA Healthcare runs psychiatric facilities offering specialized behavioral health and addiction recovery programs. Founded in 1968 and based in Nashville, Tennessee, the organization managed 182 hospitals as of December 31, 2021.

Growth and profitability

HCA Healthcare expanded annual revenue from $58.75B in FY2021 to $75.60B in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 8.0%. Over the same period, gross margin widened from 38.3% to 41.5%, while operating margin moved from 16.5% to 15.8%. Net income reached $6.78B in FY2025 with diluted earnings per share of $28.26. Operating cash flow stood at $12.64B, and free cash flow was $7.69B in FY2025. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 8.7% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings grew 11.6% year-over-year.

HCA income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, HCA Healthcare held $1.01B in cash and short-term investments against $48.78B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $47.76B. The company reported a current ratio of 0.78 and negative shareholders' equity of -$6.58B. In FY2025, operating cash flow funded capital expenditures of $4.94B, cash dividends of $679.0M, and share buybacks of $10.07B. Reflecting these repurchases, the company's share count declined 29.4% over five years.

HCA balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At $458.84 per share, HCA Healthcare trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 15.4x and a forward P/E of 13.9x, both below the median of its S&P 500 Healthcare peers at 28.9x and 16.6x, respectively. Its enterprise value stands at $145.39B, corresponding to an EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 9.2x versus the peer median of 15.7x. The stock has generated a 1-year return of 10.1%, trailing the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) return of 16.8%, but its 5-year return of 93.8% leads the index return of 83.0%.

HCA key metrics →

HCA dividend

HCA Healthcare pays a quarterly dividend with a forward annual rate of $3.12 per share, offering a dividend yield of 0.68%. The company has paid dividends for 9 consecutive years and reported a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 30.2%. Its dividend payout ratio stands at 10.3%, and the most recent ex-dividend date occurred on September 16, 2026.

HCA dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 14 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 9 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell ratings. The consensus mean price target of $460.59 implies 0.4% upside from the last closing price of $458.84. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $78.51B and earnings per share of $29.48. HCA beat earnings estimates in each of the past 4 quarters, with its next earnings report scheduled for October 27, 2026.

HCA forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • A current ratio of 0.78 indicates short-term obligations exceed liquid assets as of June 30, 2026.
  • Net debt of $47.76B exposes the business to leverage and debt refinancing obligations.
  • Consensus estimates forecast revenue growth to decelerate to 3.9% in the next fiscal year.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this HCA AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: HCA income statement, HCA balance sheet, HCA key metrics, HCA analyst forecast, HCA chart. See the HCA stock overview for the latest quote and news.

HCA AI stock analysis FAQ

What is HCA Healthcare's dividend yield and payout policy?

HCA Healthcare offers an annual forward dividend of $3.12 per share, representing a dividend yield of 0.68%. The dividend is paid quarterly with a payout ratio of 10.3%.

How leveraged is HCA Healthcare's balance sheet?

As of June 30, 2026, the company held $48.78B in total debt and $1.01B in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $47.76B. Shareholders' equity was negative at -$6.58B.

What are Wall Street's expectations for HCA's upcoming earnings?

Analysts estimate current fiscal year EPS of $29.48 on revenue of $78.51B. The company beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is October 27, 2026.

How does HCA's valuation compare to its healthcare peers?

HCA trades at a forward P/E of 13.9x and an EV-to-EBITDA of 9.2x, compared to medians of 16.6x and 15.7x, respectively, for its S&P 500 Healthcare peers.

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