Graham Corporation (GHM) AI Stock Analysis
GHM AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchGraham Corporation (GHM) designs and manufactures fluid, power, heat transfer, and vacuum equipment for defense, space, and energy industries. The company generated $245.3M in revenue in FY2026, delivering a 5-year revenue CAGR of 20.3% from FY2021 to FY2026. However, free cash flow declined to -$121,000 in FY2026 as capital expenditures increased to $16.1M.
- Market cap
- $803.8M
- Revenue (TTM)
- $261.1M
- P/E
- 66.5x fwd 45.0x
- 1Y return
- 12.1% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $125.60 83.4% vs last close
Bull case
- Revenue achieved a 5-year CAGR of 20.3% from FY2021 to FY2026, with the latest quarter showing 28.6% year-over-year revenue expansion.
- The balance sheet remains conservative with $20.2M in net cash and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.04 as of June 30, 2026.
- Analyst consensus targets a mean price of $125.60, representing an 83.4% premium over the last close of $68.48.
Bear case
- Valuation is elevated across major metrics, including a trailing P/E of 66.5x and an EV/EBITDA of 43.0x compared to US-listed Industrials peer medians of 24.8x and 13.9x.
- Free cash flow turned negative at -$121,000 in FY2026 due to capital expenditures of $16.1M.
- Quarterly earnings fell 21.4% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, despite strong revenue gains.
What Graham does
Founded in 1936 and based in Batavia, New York, Graham Corporation designs and manufactures fluid, power, heat transfer, and vacuum systems. Its products serve industries such as defense, space exploration, chemical and petrochemical processing, and energy production. Key offerings include ejectors, surface condensers, torpedo ejection and power systems, turbopumps, rocket propulsion systems, and life support systems for space missions. Graham also provides heat transfer and vacuum systems such as heat exchangers, process condensers, liquid ring pumps, and nozzles, alongside servicing and spare parts across global sales channels.
Growth and profitability
Revenue increased from $122.8M in FY2022 to $245.3M in FY2026, marking 16.9% growth in FY2026 following 13.1% in FY2025. Gross margin expanded from 7.4% in FY2022 to 23.5% in FY2026, while operating margin improved from -9.2% to 5.9%. Net income shifted from -$8.8M in FY2022 to $12.5M in FY2026, with diluted EPS reaching $1.40. Trailing twelve month revenue stood at $261.1M with an operating margin of 6.6% and a net profit margin of 4.5%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 28.6% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings declined 21.4%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Graham Corporation held $27.0M in cash and short-term investments against $6.8M in total debt, resulting in net cash of $20.2M. The company reported a current ratio of 1.23 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.04 on $192.2M of shareholders' equity. In FY2026, operating cash flow was $15.9M. Capital expenditures used $16.1M, leading to free cash flow of -$121,000, while share buybacks totaled $1.5M. The share count increased 10.1% over five years.
Valuation and performance
With a market cap of $803.8M and an enterprise value of $1.00B, Graham Corporation trades at a trailing P/E of 66.5x and a forward P/E of 45.0x, above the median of its US-listed Industrials peers of 24.8x and 17.2x, respectively. Its price-to-sales multiple of 3.1x and EV/EBITDA of 43.0x also compare to peer group medians of 1.5x and 13.9x. The stock returned 12.1% over the past year, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%, but gained 430.6% over five years versus 83.0% for the index.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analysts hold 3 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 1 Hold ratings on GHM, with zero Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target of $125.60 sits 83.4% above the last close of $68.48. For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027, consensus estimates project revenue of $291.0M and EPS of $1.81, representing 29.0% EPS growth. Over the last four quarters, the company topped EPS expectations 3 times. The next earnings date is November 6, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- The stock trades 25.0% below its 200-day average, reflecting significant price volatility off its 52-week high of $125.82.
- Short interest stands at 9.3% of the float, indicating notable market skepticism.
- Operating margins of 5.9% in FY2026 and 6.6% over the trailing twelve months trail the US-listed Industrials peer median of 11.7%.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this GHM AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Graham Corporation (GHM). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: GHM income statement, GHM balance sheet, GHM key metrics, GHM analyst forecast, GHM chart. See the GHM stock overview for the latest quote and news.
GHM AI stock analysis FAQ
What is Graham Corporation's next earnings date?
Graham Corporation is scheduled to report earnings on November 6, 2026.
Does Graham Corporation pay a dividend?
Graham Corporation does not currently report dividend payments.
How much debt does GHM have?
As of June 30, 2026, Graham Corporation had $6.8M in total debt and $27.0M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net cash of $20.2M.
What are analysts forecasting for GHM's earnings?
For the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027, analysts project an EPS of $1.81 on revenue of $291.0M, followed by an EPS estimate of $2.28 on revenue of $323.2M for the next fiscal year.