Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: ITWAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

ITW AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Illinois Tool Works Inc. is a diversified global manufacturer operating across seven industrial segments. For the trailing twelve months, the company generated $16.47B in revenue with a strong operating margin of 26.9%. Over the past year, ITW achieved a total return of 13.1%, while returning capital through $1.50B in share buybacks and $1.78B in dividends during FY2025.

Market cap
$77.55B
Revenue (TTM)
$16.47B
P/E
24.7x
fwd 21.9x
1Y return
13.1%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$294.57
8.2% vs last close

Bull case

  • Operating profitability is resilient, with operating margin reaching 26.9% over the trailing twelve months compared to the S&P 500 Industrials median of 17.3%.
  • Capital returns remain consistent, underscored by 41 consecutive years of dividend payments and a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 7.1%.
  • Execution has remained dependable, delivering 4 EPS beats over the last 4 quarters and 10.1% quarterly earnings growth year-over-year in the latest quarter.

Bear case

  • Top-line growth has been modest, with a 5-year revenue CAGR of 5.0% and FY2025 revenue expansion of just 0.9%.
  • Valuation multiples are elevated relative to peers, including a price-to-sales multiple of 4.7x versus the peer median of 3.1x.
  • Long-term share performance has lagged the broader market, returning 37.2% over 5 years compared to 83.0% for the S&P 500.

What Illinois Tool Works does

Illinois Tool Works Inc. is a global manufacturer and distributor of specialized industrial products and equipment organized into seven distinct segments. Headquartered in Glenview, Illinois, and established in 1912, the company serves automotive original equipment manufacturers, commercial food service providers, construction companies, and general industrial customers. Its Automotive OEM segment produces plastic and metal components, fasteners, and assemblies. Its Food Equipment segment provides commercial kitchen equipment such as warewashing, refrigeration, cooking, and food processing systems, alongside kitchen exhaust and pollution control solutions, maintenance, and repair services to support operational hygiene and efficiency worldwide.

Growth and profitability

Between FY2021 and FY2025, revenue grew from $14.46B to $16.04B, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 5.0%. Gross margin expanded from 41.3% in FY2021 to 44.1% in FY2025, while operating margin rose from 24.1% to 26.3%. Net income reached $3.07B in FY2025 with diluted EPS of $10.49, following a peak net income of $3.49B and EPS of $10.46 in FY2024 when revenue fell 1.3%. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 6.1% year-over-year and quarterly earnings rose 10.1% year-over-year. Trailing twelve months revenue stands at $16.47B with an operating margin of 26.9% and EPS of $11.03.

ITW income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Illinois Tool Works held $839.0M in cash and short-term investments against $9.69B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $8.86B. Total assets stood at $16.50B against shareholders' equity of $2.89B, reflecting a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.35 and a current ratio of 1.11. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $3.13B and free cash flow was $2.71B. The company deployed $419.0M toward capital expenditures, $1.50B for share buybacks, and $1.78B for dividends paid.

ITW balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At $272.28, ITW has a market capitalization of $77.55B and an enterprise value of $85.88B. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 24.7x, which sits below the 28.5x median of its S&P 500 Industrials peers. However, its forward P/E of 21.9x and EV-to-EBITDA of 17.8x trade at a premium to peer medians of 20.1x and 17.2x, respectively. The stock's price-to-sales ratio is 4.7x compared to the peer median of 3.1x. Over the past year, ITW generated a 13.1% return, trailing the 16.8% return of the S&P 500, while its 5-year return of 37.2% trailed the benchmark return of 83.0%.

ITW key metrics →

ITW dividend

Illinois Tool Works offers a forward annual dividend of $6.88 per share, representing a dividend yield of 2.53% and a payout ratio of 59.4%. ITW has maintained 41 consecutive years of dividend payments. Over the past 5 years, dividends have grown at an annualized rate of 7.1%. The stock's last ex-dividend date was September 30, 2026.

ITW dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 1 Strong Buy, 12 Hold, and 3 Strong Sell recommendations across 16 analysts. The mean price target is $294.57, representing an 8.2% premium over the last close of $272.28. Consensus estimates project FY2026 EPS of $11.44 on $16.83B in revenue, followed by FY2027 EPS of $12.35 on $17.44B in revenue. ITW has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings report scheduled for October 27, 2026.

ITW forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • The company holds $9.69B in total debt and $8.86B in net debt, resulting in an elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 3.35.
  • Combined capital returns in FY2025 through $1.50B in buybacks and $1.78B in dividends exceeded the year's free cash flow of $2.71B.
  • Quarterly revenue growth of 6.1% trails the peer group median quarterly growth rate of 10.3%.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this ITW AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: ITW income statement, ITW balance sheet, ITW key metrics, ITW analyst forecast, ITW chart. See the ITW stock overview for the latest quote and news.

ITW AI stock analysis FAQ

What is ITW's current dividend yield and payout ratio?

Illinois Tool Works carries an annual forward dividend of $6.88 per share, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 2.53% and a payout ratio of 59.4%.

What are analysts forecasting for ITW's earnings and revenue?

Analysts expect FY2026 EPS of $11.44 on revenue of $16.83B. For FY2027, expectations are for EPS of $12.35 on revenue of $17.44B.

How does ITW's valuation compare to its peer group?

ITW trades at a trailing P/E of 24.7x, below the 28.5x median of its S&P 500 Industrials peers. However, its forward P/E of 21.9x and EV-to-EBITDA of 17.8x exceed peer medians of 20.1x and 17.2x, respectively.

When is ITW's next scheduled earnings report?

The company's next earnings release date is scheduled for October 27, 2026.

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