First National Corporation (FXNC) AI Stock Analysis
FXNC AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchFirst National Corporation is the bank holding company for First Bank, providing commercial banking, lending, and wealth management services across Virginia. Revenue expanded at a 5-year CAGR of 22.9% through FY2025, reaching $112.2M with net income of $17.7M. As of June 30, 2026, the company held $489.0M in cash and short-term investments alongside a dividend yield of 2.29%.
- Market cap
- $267.3M
- Revenue (TTM)
- $90.9M
- P/E
- 12.3x fwd 8.1x
- 1Y return
- 38.3% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $32.50 9.9% vs last close
Bull case
- Operating cash flow rebounded to $25.2M in FY2025, generating $21.0M in free cash flow after negative cash flows in FY2024.
- The forward P/E of 8.1x represents a discount compared to the US-listed Financial Services peer median of 10.8x.
- Balance sheet liquidity remains solid with $489.0M in cash and short-term investments against $42.7M in total debt.
Bear case
- Analyst consensus expects FY2026 revenue of $95.5M, down from the $112.2M achieved in FY2025.
- The company's outstanding share count expanded by 45.3% over the past 5 years.
- All 3 covering analysts rate the shares a Hold, with zero Buy ratings reported.
What First National does
First National Corporation serves as the holding company for First Bank, delivering commercial banking solutions across Virginia. Established in 1907 and based in Strasburg, Virginia, the bank offers deposit products including checking, savings, money market, individual retirement accounts, certificates of deposit, and treasury management. Its lending operations provide construction, residential real estate, and commercial real estate loans secured by properties such as multi-family units, offices, retail spaces, hotels, industrial facilities, and religious institutions. It also provides wealth management, estate planning, trustee services, title insurance, and digital banking.
Growth and profitability
Revenue increased from $46.2M in FY2021 to $112.2M in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year CAGR of 22.9%. Over that period, net margin fluctuated from 22.4% in FY2021 to 7.9% in FY2024 before rising to 15.8% in FY2025 as net income rebounded to $17.7M. In FY2025, operating margin was 19.6% and EPS reached $2.12. For the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, revenue stood at $90.9M with a profit margin of 23.8% and EPS of $2.40. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 10.0% year-over-year while quarterly earnings expanded 12.5%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, First National Corporation held $489.0M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $42.7M, resulting in net cash of $446.2M. Total assets stood at $2.08B and shareholders' equity was $193.6M, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.22 and a current ratio of 0.27. In FY2025, operating cash flow recovered to $25.2M and free cash flow reached $21.0M. Capital deployment in FY2025 included $4.2M in capital expenditures, $5.5M in dividends paid, and $154,000 used for share buybacks.
Valuation and performance
At a closing price of $29.56 on October 16, 2026, First National Corporation had a market capitalization of $267.3M. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 12.3x, slightly above the 12.1x median of its US-listed Financial Services peers, and a forward P/E of 8.1x compared to the peer median of 10.8x. Its price-to-sales ratio is 2.9x compared to the peer median of 3.2x, while its price-to-book ratio is 1.4x. Over the past year, FXNC gained 38.3%, outpacing the 16.8% return for the S&P 500 (SPY), while its 5-year gain of 52.5% trailed SPY's 83.0%.
FXNC dividend
FXNC pays an annual forward dividend of $0.68 per share, yielding 2.29% as of October 16, 2026. The dividend is distributed quarterly, supported by a payout ratio of 28.7%. The company has paid dividends for 13 consecutive years, delivering a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 7.6%. Its last ex-dividend date was August 28, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage consists of 3 Hold ratings, with no Buy or Sell ratings. The mean price target of $32.50 implies upside of 9.9% above the $29.56 close on October 16, 2026. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $2.44 on revenue of $95.5M. For FY2027, 3 analysts project revenue of $99.7M and EPS of $2.57. FXNC beat EPS estimates in 2 of the past 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is October 29, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- The current ratio stood at 0.27 as of June 30, 2026, reflecting potential short-term asset and liability mismatches.
- Operating margin dropped from 34.2% in FY2022 to 9.1% in FY2024 before settling at 19.6% in FY2025, indicating margin volatility.
- The company missed EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 reported quarters.
- The 5-year return of 52.5% lagged the broader market's 83.0% gain.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this FXNC AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of First National Corporation (FXNC). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: FXNC income statement, FXNC balance sheet, FXNC key metrics, FXNC analyst forecast, FXNC chart. See the FXNC stock overview for the latest quote and news.
FXNC AI stock analysis FAQ
What dividend does First National Corporation pay?
FXNC pays a forward annual dividend of $0.68 per share, which corresponds to a 2.29% yield. The dividend is paid quarterly and is covered by a 28.7% payout ratio.
What are analysts' price targets and expectations for FXNC?
The 3 analysts covering FXNC have a consensus Hold rating with a mean price target of $32.50, representing 9.9% upside from the $29.56 close. For FY2026, consensus estimates call for revenue of $95.5M and EPS of $2.44.
How leveraged is First National Corporation?
As of June 30, 2026, the company carried total debt of $42.7M against cash and short-term investments of $489.0M, resulting in net cash of $446.2M and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.22.
When does First National Corporation report earnings next?
The company is scheduled to report its next earnings on October 29, 2026.