Elastic N.V. (ESTC) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: ESTCAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

ESTC AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) is a data search and analytics software company whose revenue expanded to $1.74B in FY2026, delivering a 5-year revenue CAGR of 23.4%. Free cash flow reached $321.8M in FY2026, while net income swung to $367.8M before settling at a trailing net profit margin of 20.8%. With $865.3M in net cash as of July 31, 2026, the company maintains a stable liquidity buffer while repurchasing shares.

Market cap
$9.63B
Revenue (TTM)
$1.80B
P/E
26.2x
fwd 27.4x
1Y return
13.9%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$111.52
21.6% vs last close

Bull case

  • Free cash flow expanded from -$1.7M in FY2022 to $321.8M in FY2026.
  • The company holds $865.3M in net cash with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.46.
  • FY2026 gross margin reached 76.1%, rising from 73.1% in FY2022.

Bear case

  • Operating margin remained negative at -1.9% in FY2026 and -0.6% over the trailing twelve months.
  • The EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 473.9x trades substantially above the US-listed Technology median of 16.6x.
  • The 5-year stock return of -46.6% underperformed the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.

What Elastic does

Elastic N.V. specializes in search and data solutions for public, private, and multi-cloud environments. Its core offering is the Elastic Stack, which manages data ingestion, storage, search, analysis, and visualization. Elasticsearch operates as a distributed real-time search and analytics engine for structured, unstructured, textual, numerical, and geospatial data. Kibana provides user interface and management capabilities, Beats functions as specialized data shippers from edge devices, and Logstash processes data pipelines. Elastic Agent delivers host protection and centralized management. The company also offers specialized solutions for app search, workplace search, logging, metrics monitoring, application performance management, and synthetic monitoring.

Growth and profitability

Revenue increased from $862.4M in FY2022 to $1.74B in FY2026, supported by a 5-year revenue CAGR of 23.4%. Gross margin expanded from 73.1% in FY2022 to 76.1% in FY2026. Operating margin improved from -20.1% in FY2022 to -1.9% in FY2026, though trailing operating margin remained slightly negative at -0.6%. Net income reached $367.8M in FY2026 with a 21.1% net margin, compared to a net loss of -$108.1M in FY2025. In the latest quarter ended July 31, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 15.1% year-over-year, bringing trailing twelve-month revenue to $1.80B and trailing diluted EPS to $3.50.

ESTC income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of July 31, 2026, Elastic held $1.46B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $595.8M, yielding net cash of $865.3M. Total assets stood at $3.00B and shareholders' equity was $1.30B, reflecting a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.46 and a current ratio of 1.81. Operating cash flow grew to $326.9M in FY2026, while capital expenditures were limited to $5.1M, producing $321.8M in free cash flow. In FY2026, the company deployed $340.1M toward share buybacks, while share count has expanded 13.5% over 5 years.

ESTC balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At $91.74, Elastic trades at an enterprise value of $8.72B and a market cap of $9.63B. Its trailing P/E of 26.2x is below the 28.1x median of its US-listed Technology peers, while its forward P/E of 27.4x stands above the peer median of 18.8x. The stock trades at a price-to-sales multiple of 5.3x compared to 2.8x for the peer group, and its EV-to-EBITDA stands at 473.9x versus 16.6x for peers. Over the trailing 12 months, the stock returned 13.9%, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%, and its 5-year return is -46.6% compared to 83.0% for the S&P 500.

ESTC key metrics →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 15 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, and 11 Hold ratings, with zero Sell or Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target of $111.52 represents a 21.6% premium over the last close of $91.74. For the fiscal year ending April 30, 2027, consensus estimates project revenue of $2.01B and EPS of $3.36, representing 30.7% EPS growth. For the following fiscal year, 29 analysts project revenue of $2.30B and EPS of $3.96. Elastic has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and the next earnings date is November 19, 2026.

ESTC forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Operating margin has remained negative across all five reported fiscal years, landing at -1.9% in FY2026.
  • Share count expanded by 13.5% over 5 years despite $340.1M spent on share buybacks in FY2026.
  • The stock trades at a PEG ratio of 4.17 and a forward P/E of 27.4x, creating sensitivity to growth expectations.
  • The company carries $595.8M in total debt against $1.46B in cash and short-term investments.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this ESTC AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Elastic N.V. (ESTC). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: ESTC income statement, ESTC balance sheet, ESTC key metrics, ESTC analyst forecast, ESTC chart. See the ESTC stock overview for the latest quote and news.

ESTC AI stock analysis FAQ

Does Elastic N.V. pay a dividend?

Elastic N.V. does not pay a dividend. Capital allocation has prioritized research and development, which was $451.9M in FY2026, alongside $340.1M in share buybacks.

What are Elastic's consensus revenue and earnings estimates?

For the fiscal year ending April 30, 2027, analysts estimate revenue of $2.01B and EPS of $3.36. For the following fiscal year, 29 analysts project revenue of $2.30B and EPS of $3.96.

How does Elastic's valuation compare to its peer group?

Elastic's trailing P/E of 26.2x is below the US-listed Technology median of 28.1x, but its forward P/E of 27.4x is above the peer median of 18.8x. Its price-to-sales ratio is 5.3x versus the peer median of 2.8x.

When does Elastic report its next earnings?

Elastic is scheduled to report its next earnings on November 19, 2026. The company has beaten EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters.

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