Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE) AI Stock Analysis
ERIE AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchErie Indemnity Company serves as the managing attorney-in-fact for subscribers of the Erie Insurance Exchange. The company generated $4.12B in trailing twelve month revenue with an operating margin of 19.1%. It carries a conservative balance sheet with $281.5M in net cash and pays an annual forward dividend of $5.85 per share.
- Market cap
- $12.74B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $4.12B
- P/E
- 22.1x fwd 26.7x
- 1Y return
- -20.0% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $115.00 -52.8% vs last close
Bull case
- Net cash of $281.5M and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03 provide a well-capitalized balance sheet with minimal leverage.
- Trailing twelve month return on equity is strong at 24.8%, supported by an operating margin of 19.1%.
- Free cash flow generation remained robust at $571.0M in FY2025, comfortably supporting $254.3M in annual dividend payouts.
Bear case
- The forward P/E multiple of 26.7x trades at a notable premium to the S&P 500 Financial Services peer median of 12.2x.
- The consensus analyst price target of $115.00 represents a 52.8% decline from the last closing price of $243.71.
- Quarterly revenue growth slowed to 2.8% year-over-year in the latest quarter, below the sector peer median of 10.3%.
What Erie Indemnity does
Established in 1925 and based in Erie, Pennsylvania, Erie Indemnity Company operates as the managing attorney-in-fact for subscribers of the Erie Insurance Exchange. The company provides critical operational functions including sales, underwriting, policy processing, issuance, renewal services, and risk assessment on behalf of policyholders. Erie Indemnity Company also oversees agent compensation mechanisms, provides sales and advertising support to expand market engagement, and delivers administrative and customer support. The business utilizes information technology platforms to ensure service delivery across its insurance operations.
Growth and profitability
Between FY2021 and FY2025, annual revenue expanded from $2.70B to $4.07B, representing a five-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 9.6%. Net income rose from $297.9M in FY2021 to a peak of $600.3M in FY2024 before settling at $559.3M in FY2025, alongside diluted EPS of $12.24. Over that span, operating margin shifted from -10.6% in FY2021 to 17.7% in FY2025. In the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $4.12B with a profit margin of 14.0%. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 2.8% year-over-year while quarterly earnings increased 3.2%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Erie Indemnity Company held $344.6M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $63.2M, resulting in a net cash position of $281.5M. The company maintains a current ratio of 1.25 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03 against shareholders' equity of $2.47B. For FY2025, operating cash flow reached $686.7M, funding $115.7M in capital expenditures and generating free cash flow of $571.0M. During FY2025, the company distributed $254.3M in dividends, while its five-year share count change was -0.0%.
Valuation and performance
Erie Indemnity Company trades at a trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 22.1x and a forward P/E of 26.7x, both higher than the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers at 14.2x and 12.2x, respectively. Its price-to-sales ratio stands at 3.1x, matching the peer group median of 3.1x, while its price-to-book ratio is 5.0x. Over the past year, the stock fell 20.0%, lagging the 16.8% gain for the S&P 500. Over five years, the stock gained 37.6% compared to an 83.0% return for the benchmark index.
ERIE dividend
The company pays a quarterly dividend totaling $5.85 per share annualized, representing a dividend yield of 2.40% and a payout ratio of 46.4%. Erie Indemnity Company has paid dividends for 32 consecutive years. Its five-year annualized dividend growth rate stands at -1.4%, and its most recent ex-dividend date was October 5, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage includes 1 StrongBuy rating, with 0 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell, and 0 StrongSell ratings. The mean price target is $115.00, which is 52.8% below the last close of $243.71. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $4.17B and EPS of $12.70, reflecting 3.7% earnings growth. The company exceeded EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, and the next earnings date is October 29, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Revenue growth decelerated to 2.8% in the latest quarter after posting 16.1% growth in FY2024.
- Short interest represents 10.2% of the float, pointing to elevated negative sentiment among market participants.
- The five-year annualized dividend growth rate is -1.4%, indicating lack of distribution growth over recent years.
- The company has beat EPS estimates in only 2 of the past 4 quarters, signaling quarterly earnings variability.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this ERIE AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Erie Indemnity Company (ERIE). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: ERIE income statement, ERIE balance sheet, ERIE key metrics, ERIE analyst forecast, ERIE chart. See the ERIE stock overview for the latest quote and news.
ERIE AI stock analysis FAQ
What is Erie Indemnity Company's dividend yield and payout schedule?
Erie Indemnity Company offers a forward annual dividend of $5.85 per share, resulting in a 2.40% dividend yield. Dividends are paid quarterly with a payout ratio of 46.4%.
How does ERIE's valuation compare to sector peers?
ERIE trades at a forward P/E of 26.7x and a trailing P/E of 22.1x, compared to S&P 500 Financial Services peer medians of 12.2x and 14.2x. Its price-to-sales multiple is 3.1x, matching the peer median of 3.1x.
How strong is Erie Indemnity Company's balance sheet?
As of June 30, 2026, the company held $344.6M in cash and short-term investments against $63.2M in total debt, leaving a net cash balance of $281.5M and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03.
What are analysts forecasting for ERIE's current fiscal year?
Analysts estimate full-year FY2026 revenue of $4.17B and diluted EPS of $12.70, representing projected annual earnings growth of 3.7%.