Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: AJGAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

AJG AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) is a global provider of insurance brokerage and risk management services. Over the five years through FY2025, the company grew revenue at a 14.8% CAGR to reach $13.94B. In the trailing twelve months, revenue climbed to $15.11B, supported by 30.9% quarterly revenue growth as of June 30, 2026.

Market cap
$65.34B
Revenue (TTM)
$15.11B
P/E
42.3x
fwd 16.3x
1Y return
-7.9%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$283.33
11.2% vs last close

Bull case

  • Quarterly revenue grew 30.9% year-over-year in the period ended June 30, 2026.
  • The balance sheet remains conservatively leveraged with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09 and net debt of $631.0M.
  • Analysts forecast current fiscal year EPS of $13.10, reflecting projected annual growth of 22.5%.

Bear case

  • The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 42.3x, at a marked premium to the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers of 14.2x.
  • Quarterly earnings declined 10.7% year-over-year in the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • The 1-year stock return of -7.9% significantly trailed the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.

What Arthur J. Gallagher does

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. operates as a global provider of insurance and reinsurance brokerage services, consulting, and third-party property and casualty claims administration. The company conducts business through two main segments: Brokerage and Risk Management. The Brokerage segment offers retail and wholesale insurance brokerage services, managing specialized placements, underwriting distribution, policy issuance, and reinsurance negotiations. The Risk Management segment provides contract claim settlement, claims management, loss control consulting, and property appraisal services. Gallagher serves commercial, industrial, public, religious, and non-profit clients worldwide from its headquarters in Rolling Meadows, Illinois.

Growth and profitability

Annual revenue grew from $8.21B in FY2021 to $13.94B in FY2025, driven by a 5-year revenue CAGR of 14.8%. In FY2025, revenue increased 20.7%, gross margin reached 54.8%, and operating margin was 18.3%, leading to net income of $1.49B and diluted EPS of $10.70. Free cash flow totaled $1.78B in FY2025 alongside operating cash flow of $1.93B. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $15.11B with an operating margin of 19.2% and net margin of 10.4%. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue rose 30.9% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings declined 10.7%.

AJG income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. held $1.39B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $2.02B, resulting in net debt of $631.0M. Total assets stood at $81.81B and shareholders' equity was $23.72B, supported by a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09 and a current ratio of 1.05. During FY2025, capital expenditures were $145.0M, dividends paid totaled $667.0M, and share issuances generated $1.50B.

AJG balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

At a last close of $254.88, Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. trades at a trailing P/E of 42.3x and a forward P/E of 16.3x, compared to the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers of 14.2x and 12.2x, respectively. The company carries an enterprise value of $71.59B and an EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 18.8x, above the peer median of 15.1x. Over the past year, the stock returned -7.9% against a 16.8% return for the S&P 500, while its 5-year return of 64.8% trailed the index return of 83.0%.

AJG key metrics →

AJG dividend

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward payout of $2.80, translating to a dividend yield of 1.10% and a payout ratio of 22.9%. The company has paid dividends for 42 consecutive years and achieved a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 7.6%. Its last ex-dividend date was September 8, 2026.

AJG dividend history →

What analysts expect

Consensus analyst ratings include 12 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, and 7 Hold recommendations, with zero Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $283.33, implying an 11.2% upside from the last close of $254.88. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $16.61B and EPS of $13.10, representing 22.5% earnings growth. The company beat EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is October 29, 2026.

AJG forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Valuation multiples are elevated, with an EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 18.8x compared to the sector peer median of 15.1x.
  • Shareholder dilution has occurred over time, with the share count increasing 21.5% over 5 years after $1.50B of share issuance in FY2025.
  • Earnings predictability has been mixed, with the company beating EPS estimates in only 2 of the last 4 quarters.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this AJG AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: AJG income statement, AJG balance sheet, AJG key metrics, AJG analyst forecast, AJG chart. See the AJG stock overview for the latest quote and news.

AJG AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s dividend yield and track record?

Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. offers an annual forward dividend of $2.80, representing a yield of 1.10% and a payout ratio of 22.9%. The company has paid dividends for 42 consecutive years, with an annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of 7.6%.

How does AJG's valuation compare to its financial sector peers?

AJG trades at a trailing P/E of 42.3x and a forward P/E of 16.3x, both above the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers of 14.2x and 12.2x. Its price-to-sales ratio of 4.3x also sits higher than the peer median of 3.1x.

What are analysts forecasting for AJG's earnings and revenue?

For FY2026, analysts estimate revenue of $16.61B and EPS of $13.10. For the next fiscal year, 23 analysts project revenue of $18.07B and EPS of $14.81.

What is Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s debt and cash position?

As of June 30, 2026, the company held $1.39B in cash and short-term investments alongside total debt of $2.02B, resulting in net debt of $631.0M and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09.

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