ConocoPhillips (COP) AI Stock Analysis
COP AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchConocoPhillips (COP) is a global exploration and production energy company with a market cap of $176.01B. In the trailing twelve months, it delivered $64.46B in revenue with an operating margin of 31.5% and a profit margin of 14.4%. Over the past year, the stock generated a 73.9% return, significantly outpacing the broader market.
- Market cap
- $176.01B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $64.46B
- P/E
- 19.4x fwd 12.7x
- 1Y return
- 73.9% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $149.15 1.8% vs last close
Bull case
- Quarterly earnings jumped 107.0% year-over-year in the quarter ending June 30, 2026, alongside 35.5% quarterly revenue growth.
- Free cash flow generation remained healthy at $7.24B in FY2025, funding $5.12B in share buybacks and $4.00B in dividends.
- ConocoPhillips trades at a forward P/E of 12.7x and an EV/EBITDA of 6.1x, both lower than the S&P 500 Energy medians of 14.3x and 8.4x.
Bear case
- Analyst consensus expects next fiscal year EPS to fall 6.5% to $10.52 on a 5.3% revenue decline to $67.24B.
- Annual gross margin has contracted steadily from 38.2% in FY2022 to 25.1% in FY2025, lowering annual net income to $7.99B.
- At $146.51, the stock trades near its 52-week high of $146.59 and within 1.8% of the analyst mean price target of $149.15.
What ConocoPhillips does
ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production energy company headquartered in Houston, Texas. Founded in 1917, the firm engages in the exploration, production, transportation, and marketing of crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, LNG, and natural gas liquids. Its asset portfolio spans North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, encompassing conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil, and oil sands assets in Canada. The company also invests in global LNG developments and employs 9,600 people to advance exploration and production operations.
Growth and profitability
ConocoPhillips grew revenue at a 5-year CAGR of 25.7% from FY2020 through FY2025. Annual revenue expanded to $78.49B in FY2022 before dropping 28.5% to $56.14B in FY2023 and 2.5% to $54.74B in FY2024. In FY2025, revenue rebounded 7.7% to $58.94B, though net margin compressed to 13.6% from 23.8% in FY2022, yielding net income of $7.99B and EPS of $6.14. Growth accelerated in the latest quarter ending June 30, 2026, where quarterly revenue rose 35.5% year-over-year and quarterly earnings grew 107.0%, bringing trailing twelve month EPS to $7.55.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, ConocoPhillips maintained $7.69B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $23.29B, resulting in net debt of $15.60B. The company recorded shareholders' equity of $65.35B and total assets of $124.26B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36 and a current ratio of 1.54. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $19.80B and free cash flow stood at $7.24B. Cash uses in FY2025 included $12.55B in capital expenditures, $5.12B in share buybacks, and $4.00B in dividends paid, contributing to an 8.1% share count reduction over five years.
Valuation and performance
Trading at a last close of $146.51, ConocoPhillips holds a trailing P/E of 19.4x, above the 17.8x median of its S&P 500 Energy peers. Its forward P/E of 12.7x and EV/EBITDA of 6.1x sit below the peer group medians of 14.3x and 8.4x, respectively. The stock's price-to-sales multiple is 2.7x, compared to the peer median of 2.1x. Over the past year, COP posted a 73.9% return, outperforming the S&P 500's 16.8% gain, while its 5-year return of 134.5% exceeded the benchmark's 83.0% advance.
COP dividend
ConocoPhillips pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward payout of $3.36 per share, representing a 2.29% dividend yield and a payout ratio of 43.3%. The company has paid dividends for 45 consecutive years and achieved a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 13.5%. Its last ex-dividend date occurred on August 17, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage includes 15 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, and 9 Hold ratings, with zero Sell or Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target of $149.15 represents a 1.8% premium to the last close of $146.51. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $71.02B and EPS of $11.25, representing 82.6% earnings growth. For the next fiscal year, 26 analysts project revenue to fall 5.3% to $67.24B and EPS to decline 6.5% to $10.52. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 5, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- ConocoPhillips carries $15.60B in net debt, which requires ongoing cash flow allocation alongside its $12.55B in annual capital expenditures.
- Annual earnings have demonstrated cyclicality, with net income falling from $18.68B in FY2022 to $7.99B in FY2025.
- Consensus models forecast negative top-line and bottom-line comparisons for the upcoming fiscal year, with revenue declining 5.3% and EPS decreasing 6.5%.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this COP AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of ConocoPhillips (COP). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: COP income statement, COP balance sheet, COP key metrics, COP analyst forecast, COP chart. See the COP stock overview for the latest quote and news.
COP AI stock analysis FAQ
What is ConocoPhillips' dividend yield and payout schedule?
ConocoPhillips offers a forward dividend yield of 2.29%, which corresponds to an annual forward payout of $3.36 per share. Dividends are distributed quarterly, supported by a payout ratio of 43.3% and 45 consecutive years of payments.
How did ConocoPhillips perform in its most recent quarter?
For the quarter ending June 30, 2026, ConocoPhillips recorded a 35.5% year-over-year increase in revenue. Quarterly earnings grew 107.0% compared to the prior-year period.
What do Wall Street analysts project for COP stock?
Analysts hold an aggregate consensus of 15 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, and 9 Hold ratings, with an average price target of $149.15, which is 1.8% above the close of $146.51. For FY2026, analysts forecast EPS of $11.25 on revenue of $71.02B.
How strong is ConocoPhillips' balance sheet?
As of June 30, 2026, the company held $7.69B in cash and short-term investments against $23.29B in total debt. Its debt-to-equity ratio was 0.36, and its current ratio stood at 1.54.