CME Group Inc. (CME) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: CMEAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

CME AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

CME Group Inc. (CME) operates global derivatives exchanges facilitating futures and options trading across diverse asset classes. In FY2025, the company generated $6.52B in revenue and $4.04B in net income, resulting in a net margin of 62.0%. Over the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, operating margin stood at 65.0% alongside an EPS of $11.79.

Market cap
$105.67B
Revenue (TTM)
$6.76B
P/E
24.9x
fwd 21.9x
1Y return
16.3%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$292.94
-0.3% vs last close

Bull case

  • CME converted $6.52B of FY2025 revenue into $4.19B in free cash flow, reflecting high cash generation efficiency.
  • The business maintains strong profitability with a trailing twelve month operating margin of 65.0% and a net profit margin of 63.4%.
  • Consensus analyst expectations call for FY2026 EPS of $12.31, representing 9.9% annual earnings growth.

Bear case

  • Revenue growth slowed to 0.8% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, well below the peer median of 10.3%.
  • CME trades at a forward P/E of 21.9x and a price-to-sales multiple of 15.6x, representing a significant valuation premium over its S&P 500 Financial Services peer medians of 12.2x and 3.1x.
  • The dividend payout ratio is elevated at 95.8%, following a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of -3.3%.

What CME Group does

CME Group Inc. operates contract markets for trading futures and options contracts based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, metals, and fixed income products. In addition to trading venues, the company delivers clearing house services to clear, settle, and guarantee futures, options, and cleared swaps. CME Group also provides trade processing, risk mitigation, and comprehensive real-time and historical market data services. These offerings serve professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks globally. Founded in 1898, the exchange operator is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Growth and profitability

CME grew revenue from $4.69B in FY2021 to $6.52B in FY2025, achieving a 5-year revenue CAGR of 6.0%. Over the same timeframe, net income increased from $2.64B to $4.04B, while net margins expanded from 56.2% to 62.0%. Diluted EPS rose from $6.69 in FY2021 to $11.21 in FY2025. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 0.8% year-over-year and quarterly earnings grew 2.5%. On a trailing twelve months basis, revenue reached $6.76B, supported by an operating margin of 65.0% and a profit margin of 63.4%.

CME income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, CME held $2.28B in cash and short-term investments against $3.42B in total debt, leading to net debt of $1.15B. Total assets stood at $194.68B and shareholders' equity was $26.52B, translating to a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13 and a current ratio of 1.02. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $4.28B while capital expenditures totaled $83.5M, leaving free cash flow of $4.19B. Capital returns in FY2025 included $3.93B in dividends paid and $266.1M in share buybacks.

CME balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Trading at $293.87 on October 16, 2026, CME carries a market cap of $105.67B and an enterprise value of $98.52B. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 24.9x and a forward P/E of 21.9x, both higher than the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers at 14.2x and 12.2x, respectively. Its price-to-sales ratio is 15.6x, compared to the peer median of 3.1x. Over the past 1-year period, CME achieved a return of 16.3%, slightly trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%, while its 5-year return of 71.1% compares to 83.0% for the S&P 500.

CME key metrics →

CME dividend

CME pays an annualized forward dividend of $5.20 per share, which equates to a dividend yield of 1.77%. The company distributes dividends quarterly and has paid dividends for 24 consecutive years, with the last ex-dividend date on September 9, 2026. The dividend payout ratio stands at 95.8%, and the 5-year annualized dividend growth rate was -3.3%.

CME dividend history →

What analysts expect

Consensus ratings from Wall Street analysts comprise 4 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 6 Hold, 2 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell. The mean price target is $292.94, which sits 0.3% below the last close of $293.87. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $7.05B and EPS of $12.31, representing 9.9% EPS growth. CME has exceeded EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings release is scheduled for October 21, 2026.

CME forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Latest quarterly revenue growth moderated to 0.8%, exposing financial results to swings in derivative trading volumes.
  • An elevated dividend payout ratio of 95.8% limits balance sheet flexibility if operational earnings contract.
  • A PEG ratio of 4.71 signals valuation risk if forward EPS growth fails to achieve the projected 9.9% rate.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this CME AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of CME Group Inc. (CME). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: CME income statement, CME balance sheet, CME key metrics, CME analyst forecast, CME chart. See the CME stock overview for the latest quote and news.

CME AI stock analysis FAQ

What is CME Group's dividend yield and payment frequency?

CME offers a forward dividend yield of 1.77% based on an annual forward dividend of $5.20 per share. Dividends are paid quarterly, and the company has made regular payments for 24 consecutive years.

When does CME report its next quarterly financial results?

CME Group's next scheduled earnings release date is October 21, 2026.

How do CME's valuation multiples compare to the financial sector?

CME trades at a forward P/E of 21.9x and an EV-to-EBITDA of 16.1x. These multiples stand higher than the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers, which are 12.2x and 15.1x, respectively.

What is the consensus analyst price target for CME stock?

The consensus mean price target across Wall Street analysts is $292.94, which is 0.3% below the closing price of $293.87 on October 16, 2026.

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