Moody's Corporation (MCO) AI Stock Analysis
MCO AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchMoody's Corporation is a global risk assessment provider operating through Moody's Investors Service credit ratings and Moody's Analytics research tools. Trailing twelve month revenue reached $8.16B with an operating margin of 49.5%, supported by an annual free cash flow of $2.58B in FY2025. Over the past year, the stock returned 4.4%, lagging the S&P 500 return of 16.8%.
- Market cap
- $84.00B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $8.16B
- P/E
- 30.8x fwd 24.3x
- 1Y return
- 4.4% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $551.38 13.7% vs last close
Bull case
- Quarterly earnings grew 56.7% year-over-year in the period ended June 30, 2026, alongside 15.1% quarterly revenue growth.
- Trailing twelve-month operating margin reached 49.5%, outpacing the S&P 500 Financial Services peer median of 33.1%.
- Moody's delivered $2.58B in free cash flow in FY2025 while reducing its five-year share count by 6.1% through buybacks.
Bear case
- Trailing P/E of 30.8x and forward P/E of 24.3x trade at substantial premiums to the S&P 500 Financial Services peer medians of 14.2x and 12.2x.
- The 1-year total return of 4.4% trailed the S&P 500 return of 16.8%, while the stock is down 4.4% year-to-date.
- Balance sheet debt stands at $7.52B against $1.50B in cash, producing a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.49.
What Moody's does
Moody's Corporation provides integrated risk assessment services worldwide through two primary segments: Moody's Investors Service and Moody's Analytics. Moody's Investors Service issues credit ratings and assessments on debt obligations from corporations, financial institutions, governments, and structured finance vehicles across approximately 140 countries. Moody's Analytics delivers research, quantitative credit scores, economic analysis, commercial real estate data, business intelligence, and software solutions to institutional participants in financial markets. Founded in 1900 and headquartered in New York City, the company employs 16,000 people and supports risk management through subscription offerings and specialized tools.
Growth and profitability
Revenue rose from $6.22B in FY2021 to $7.72B in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 7.5% from FY2020 to FY2025. After revenue fell 12.1% in FY2022 to $5.47B, it rebounded with 8.2% growth in FY2023 and 19.8% growth in FY2024 to $7.09B. Operating margin expanded from 36.5% in FY2022 to 44.8% in FY2025, while net income climbed to $2.46B. For the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $8.16B with a profit margin of 34.2%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue increased 15.1% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings grew 56.7%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Moody's held $1.50B in cash and short-term investments alongside total debt of $7.52B, resulting in net debt of $6.03B. Shareholders' equity stood at $3.02B against total assets of $14.68B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.49 and a current ratio of 1.19. In FY2025, operating cash flow generated $2.90B and free cash flow was $2.58B after capital expenditures of $326.0M. The company directed capital toward $1.71B in share buybacks and $701.0M in dividends paid.
Valuation and performance
MCO trades at a trailing P/E of 30.8x and a forward P/E of 24.3x, both above the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers, which trade at 14.2x and 12.2x respectively. The stock's price-to-sales ratio of 10.3x and EV/EBITDA of 20.2x also exceed the peer medians of 3.1x and 15.1x. The company's operating margin of 49.5% stands above the peer median of 33.1%. Over the 1-year period, MCO gained 4.4% compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500, and over 5 years returned 36.4% versus 83.0% for the index.
MCO dividend
Moody's pays a quarterly dividend with an annualized forward payout of $4.12 per share, representing a dividend yield of 0.85% and a payout ratio of 24.3%. The company has paid dividends for 33 consecutive years. Over the last five years, its dividend grew at an annualized rate of 10.9%. The most recent ex-dividend date was August 14, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage includes 13 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, and 6 Hold ratings, with no Sell or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $551.38, which is 13.7% above the last close of $485.07. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $8.28B and EPS of $16.92, representing 13.3% EPS growth. Moody's has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with the next earnings release scheduled for October 21, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Total debt of $7.52B and net debt of $6.03B create ongoing financial leverage on $3.02B in shareholders' equity.
- Revenue dropped 12.1% in FY2022, highlighting historical sensitivity to periodic downturns in debt issuance volumes.
- A beta of 1.35 indicates that the stock experiences higher price volatility than the broader equity market.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this MCO AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Moody's Corporation (MCO). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: MCO income statement, MCO balance sheet, MCO key metrics, MCO analyst forecast, MCO chart. See the MCO stock overview for the latest quote and news.
MCO AI stock analysis FAQ
What is Moody's dividend yield and track record?
Moody's offers a dividend yield of 0.85% based on an annual forward dividend of $4.12. The company has paid consecutive dividends for 33 years and has an annualized five-year dividend growth rate of 10.9%.
How does Moody's valuation compare to its peer group?
Moody's trades at a forward P/E of 24.3x and an EV/EBITDA of 20.2x. Both multiples are higher than the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers, which trade at 12.2x and 15.1x respectively.
What are analysts forecasting for Moody's earnings?
For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $16.92 on revenue of $8.28B. For the following fiscal year, 24 analysts estimate EPS will reach $18.81 on revenue of $8.85B.
What is Moody's current debt position?
As of June 30, 2026, Moody's reported total debt of $7.52B and cash and short-term investments of $1.50B, resulting in net debt of $6.03B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.49.