MSCI Inc. (MSCI) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: MSCIAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

MSCI AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

MSCI Inc. provides mission-critical investment tools including benchmark indexes, risk analytics, and ESG research. In FY2025, the company generated $3.13B in revenue with a high operating margin of 54.7% and $1.55B in free cash flow. While long-term cash generation and earnings expansion remain strong, the company operates with negative shareholders' equity of -$2.69B due to sizable capital returns.

Market cap
$41.37B
Revenue (TTM)
$3.33B
P/E
31.1x
fwd 24.7x
1Y return
8.2%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$672.94
18.3% vs last close

Bull case

  • MSCI demonstrates strong operational efficiency, generating a high trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 56.3% and $1.55B in FY2025 free cash flow.
  • Earnings momentum continues with 4 consecutive quarterly EPS beats and analysts forecasting 13.9% EPS growth for FY2026.
  • Capital return is supported by a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 19.8% and a 12.5% share count reduction over 5 years.

Bear case

  • The stock commands a significant valuation premium, trading at a trailing P/E of 31.1x versus the S&P 500 Financial Services peer median of 14.2x.
  • MSCI operates with negative shareholders' equity of -$2.69B and carries net debt of $6.19B.
  • The stock has lagged the broader market, posting a 5-year return of -2.2% compared to 83.0% for the S&P 500.

What MSCI does

MSCI Inc., along with its subsidiaries, provides investment decision support tools for clients worldwide to manage their investment processes. It operates through four segments: Index, Analytics, ESG and Climate, and All Other – Private Assets. The Index segment offers benchmarks used to create indexed products like ETFs and mutual funds, as well as portfolio construction and asset allocation services. The Analytics segment provides risk management, performance attribution, and portfolio management tools across asset classes. The ESG and Climate segment delivers ratings, research, and tools to navigate regulatory requirements and assess ESG risks. The All Other – Private Assets segment offers real estate data, benchmarks, and return analytics.

Growth and profitability

MSCI generated a 5-year revenue CAGR of 13.1% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue expanded from $2.04B in FY2021 to $3.13B in FY2025, accompanied by net income climbing from $726.0M to $1.20B. Across this timeframe, gross margin remained steady, registering at 82.4% in FY2025. For the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $3.33B with an operating margin of 56.3% and a profit margin of 40.7%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, MSCI sustained double-digit momentum, posting quarterly revenue growth of 12.2% year-over-year alongside quarterly earnings growth of 19.6%.

MSCI income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, MSCI held $356.4M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $6.54B, resulting in net debt of $6.19B. Total assets stood at $5.60B, the current ratio was 0.89, and shareholders' equity was -$2.69B. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $1.59B against capital expenditures of $39.3M, yielding $1.55B in free cash flow. The company returned significant capital in FY2025 through $2.48B in share buybacks and $556.5M in dividends paid, contributing to a 5-year share count reduction of 12.5%.

MSCI balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

MSCI trades at a trailing P/E of 31.1x and a forward P/E of 24.7x, both well above the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers (14.2x and 12.2x, respectively). Its price-to-sales multiple is 12.4x compared to the peer median of 3.1x, and its EV/EBITDA stands at 22.3x versus the peer median of 15.1x. Over the past year, MSCI delivered a price return of 8.2%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year window, MSCI posted a return of -2.2% compared to an 83.0% gain for the broader index.

MSCI key metrics →

MSCI dividend

MSCI pays an annual forward dividend of $8.20 per share, representing a 1.44% dividend yield with a payout ratio of 42.7%. The dividend is distributed quarterly and has been paid for 13 consecutive years. Over the last 5 years, the dividend grew at an annualized rate of 19.8%, with the most recent ex-dividend date occurring on August 14, 2026.

MSCI dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street sentiment shows 12 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, 1 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings. The mean price target is $672.94, implying an 18.3% upside compared to the last close of $569.08. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $19.67 (up 13.9%) on revenue of $3.52B. For the following fiscal year, 18 analysts project EPS of $22.39 on revenue of $3.83B. MSCI beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings report scheduled for October 20, 2026.

MSCI forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • MSCI's balance sheet features net debt of $6.19B and a current ratio of 0.89 as of June 30, 2026.
  • Share repurchases exceeding annual free cash flow, such as $2.48B in buybacks in FY2025, have pushed shareholders' equity to -$2.69B.
  • With a beta of 1.24, the stock experiences above-market volatility while facing elevated valuation multiples like an EV/EBITDA of 22.3x.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this MSCI AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of MSCI Inc. (MSCI). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: MSCI income statement, MSCI balance sheet, MSCI key metrics, MSCI analyst forecast, MSCI chart. See the MSCI stock overview for the latest quote and news.

MSCI AI stock analysis FAQ

What is MSCI's forward dividend yield and payout ratio?

MSCI pays a forward dividend of $8.20 per share, which equals a 1.44% dividend yield. The payout ratio stands at 42.7%.

What is the consensus analyst price target for MSCI?

The mean analyst price target is $672.94, representing an 18.3% upside from the October 16, 2026 closing price of $569.08.

Why does MSCI have negative shareholders' equity?

MSCI's shareholders' equity sits at -$2.69B, primarily due to aggressive capital return programs such as $2.48B in share buybacks during FY2025.

How fast has MSCI's revenue grown?

MSCI grew revenue at a 5-year CAGR of 13.1% through FY2025, and delivered 12.2% year-over-year revenue growth in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.

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