Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) AI Stock Analysis

Churchill Downs Incorporated operates across three primary segments: Live and Historical Racing, TwinSpires, and Gaming. The company's operations include pari-mutuel gaming entertainment venues equipped with approximately 3,050 historical racing machines, as well as casino gaming across eight states featuring around 11,000 slot machines and video lottery terminals alongside 200 table games. Its TwinSpires digital platform provides online wagering on horse racing, sports, and iGaming, supplemented by nine retail sportsbooks. Founded in 1875 and headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky, the company also offers racing data through Bloodstock Research Information Services and manufactures pari-mutuel wagering systems.

Revenue increased from $1.60B in FY2021 to $2.93B in FY2025, recording a 5-year revenue CAGR of 22.7% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual net income peaked at $439.4M in FY2022 before settling at $379.7M in FY2025, while diluted EPS expanded to $6.23. Operating margin improved from 17.8% in FY2021 to 25.2% in FY2025. Over the trailing twelve months ending June 30, 2026, revenue totaled $2.99B with an operating margin of 36.5% and EPS of $5.86. In the latest quarter, quarterly revenue grew 4.9% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings grew 14.4% year-over-year.

As of June 30, 2026, Churchill Downs held $196.0M in cash and short-term investments against $4.78B in total debt, leaving net debt at $4.58B. Shareholders' equity was $1.34B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.57 and a current ratio of 0.36. In FY2025, the company generated $769.8M in operating cash flow and $309.6M in free cash flow. Capital allocation in FY2025 included $460.2M in capital expenditures, $427.8M for share buybacks, and $30.8M in dividends paid.

At a share price of $81.70, Churchill Downs holds a market capitalization of $5.69B and an enterprise value of $10.19B. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 13.9x, below the 18.0x median of its US-listed Consumer Cyclical peers, but its forward P/E of 22.9x exceeds the peer median of 14.1x. Its EV/EBITDA of 9.1x compares to the peer median of 11.1x. The stock fell 5.5% over the past 1 year, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%, and declined 34.7% over 5 years against a 83.0% gain for the index.

Churchill Downs pays an annual dividend with a forward rate of $0.44 per share, translating to a dividend yield of 0.54% and a payout ratio of 6.5%. The company has paid dividends for 33 consecutive years, with an annualized 5-year dividend growth rate of 7.1%. Its last ex-dividend date was December 5, 2025.

Wall Street sentiment is positive, with 9 Strong Buy and 3 Buy ratings, and no Hold, Sell, or Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $127.67, representing a 56.3% premium over the last close of $81.70. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $3.02B and EPS of $6.83. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for October 28, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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