Southern California Bancorp (BCAL) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: BCALAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

BCAL AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Southern California Bancorp (BCAL) is a bank holding company operating Bank of Southern California across Southern California. In FY2025, the company delivered revenue of $237.1M and net income of $63.1M, supported by a 5-year revenue CAGR of 34.3%. With a trailing P/E of 11.8x and net cash of $311.0M, recent top-line momentum has cooled, showing a 1.6% year-over-year revenue decline in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.

Market cap
$699.6M
Revenue (TTM)
$184.3M
P/E
11.8x
1Y return
38.8%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$24.75
13.7% vs last close

Bull case

  • Southern California Bancorp generated $56.9M in free cash flow and $63.1M in net income during FY2025.
  • The balance sheet is supported by $311.0M in net cash and a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09.
  • The stock outperformed broader markets over the past year, gaining 38.8% compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500.

Bear case

  • Quarterly revenue fell 1.6% year-over-year in the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • Analysts project full-year EPS to fall 9.7% to $1.74 for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026.
  • Share count has expanded significantly, rising 92.2% over the past 5 years.

What Southern California Bancorp does

Southern California Bancorp, based in San Diego, California, operates as the holding company for Bank of Southern California, N.A. Established in 2001, it offers banking products tailored for individuals, professionals, and small-to-medium-sized businesses. Its core offerings include checking accounts, personal and business savings accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and various lending solutions such as commercial real estate loans, construction loans, home equity lines of credit, and small business administration loans. The company also provides specialized financial services including cash vault, remote deposit capture, sweep accounts, courier, lockbox, and merchant services across San Diego, Orange, Ventura, Los Angeles, and Riverside counties.

Growth and profitability

Between FY2021 and FY2025, revenue increased from $71.6M to $237.1M, reflecting steady annual expansion and a 5-year CAGR of 34.3%. Net income grew from $10.7M in FY2021 to $63.1M in FY2025, while diluted EPS climbed from $0.87 to $1.93. Operating margin improved to 37.1% in FY2025, up from 4.5% in FY2024. For the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $184.3M with an operating margin of 48.4% and a profit margin of 32.7%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue fell 1.6% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings increased 2.3%.

BCAL income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Southern California Bancorp reported total assets of $4.03B and shareholders' equity of $586.6M. The bank held $364.0M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $53.0M, resulting in net cash of $311.0M and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09. Its current ratio stood at 0.11. In FY2025, the company generated $57.3M in operating cash flow and $56.9M in free cash flow. Capital expenditures totaled $346,000, while capital returns included $6.0M in share buybacks and $3.3M in dividends paid.

BCAL balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

BCAL trades at a trailing P/E of 11.8x, slightly below the 12.1x median of its US-listed Financial Services peers. Its price-to-sales ratio of 3.8x is above the peer median of 3.2x, and its price-to-book ratio is 1.2x. The company's enterprise value is $487.6M against a market capitalization of $699.6M. Over the past year, BCAL's stock delivered a 38.8% return, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year period, its return of 43.4% trailed the S&P 500 return of 83.0%.

BCAL key metrics →

BCAL dividend

Southern California Bancorp pays a forward annual dividend of $0.48 per share, representing a 2.21% dividend yield. The company distributes payments quarterly with a payout ratio of 22.8% and has paid dividends for 2 consecutive years. Its last ex-dividend date was September 21, 2026.

BCAL dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage consists of 2 Strong Buy and 2 Buy ratings, with zero Hold, Sell, or Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target of $24.75 represents an upside of 13.7% from the last close of $21.76. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $182.6M and EPS of $1.74, a decline of 9.7%. For the next fiscal year, 4 analysts project revenue of $194.4M and EPS of $1.85, both up 6.5%. The company has beat EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, with next earnings scheduled for October 27, 2026.

BCAL forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Current fiscal year revenue is estimated at $182.6M, down from $237.1M reported in FY2025.
  • Liquidity metrics show a current ratio of 0.11 as of June 30, 2026.
  • Short interest represents 3.4% of float, with insiders holding 15.4% and institutions holding 76.4% of the shares.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this BCAL AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Southern California Bancorp (BCAL). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: BCAL income statement, BCAL balance sheet, BCAL key metrics, BCAL analyst forecast, BCAL chart. See the BCAL stock overview for the latest quote and news.

BCAL AI stock analysis FAQ

Does Southern California Bancorp pay a dividend?

Yes. BCAL pays a quarterly forward dividend of $0.48 per share, which corresponds to a 2.21% yield and a payout ratio of 22.8%.

What is Southern California Bancorp's valuation compared to peers?

BCAL trades at a trailing P/E of 11.8x, compared to the median of 12.1x for its US-listed Financial Services peers. Its price-to-sales multiple is 3.8x versus the peer median of 3.2x.

How did BCAL perform in its latest quarter?

In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, Southern California Bancorp saw revenue decline 1.6% year-over-year, while earnings increased 2.3%.

When is Southern California Bancorp's next earnings report?

The company is scheduled to report earnings on October 27, 2026, following 4 consecutive quarters of beating EPS estimates.

More Financial Services AI stock analysis