Accelerant Holdings (ARX) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: ARXAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

ARX AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Accelerant Holdings (ARX) operates a data-driven risk exchange that connects specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners. The company generated a 4-year revenue CAGR of 70.9% from FY2021 through FY2025, reaching $879.5M in FY2025 revenue. While trailing twelve month revenue stands at $1.07B with quarterly revenue up 57.2% year-over-year, FY2025 net income was -$1.35B.

Market cap
$4.29B
Revenue (TTM)
$1.07B
P/E
—
fwd 22.2x
1Y return
50.4%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$20.25
2.5% vs last close

Bull case

  • Revenue expanded at a 4-year CAGR of 70.9% between FY2021 and FY2025, reaching $879.5M.
  • The balance sheet maintains substantial liquidity with $1.62B in net cash and a current ratio of 7.79 as of June 30, 2026.
  • In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue increased 57.2% year-over-year while quarterly earnings grew 800.0%.

Bear case

  • Net income dropped to -$1.35B in FY2025, resulting in a net margin of -154.0%.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 22.2x, above the median of its US-listed Financial Services peers of 10.8x.
  • Analyst coverage shows conservative sentiment with 5 Hold and 1 Sell ratings, and a mean price target of $20.25 that sits 2.5% above the last close.

What Accelerant does

Accelerant Holdings, together with its subsidiaries, operates a data-driven risk exchange that connects selected specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners. It operates through Exchange Services, MGA Operations, and Underwriting segments. The Exchange Services segment provides an operating platform that incorporates technology, data ingestion, and agency operations, receiving fixed-percentage, volume-based fees from risk capital partners. The MGA Operations segment comprises fees earned by members for originating and underwriting portfolios of insurance policies. The Underwriting segment participates in underwriting insurance policies and assuming reinsurance arrangements across property and casualty lines. The company serves small-to-medium sized commercial clients primarily in the United States, Europe, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom.

Growth and profitability

Revenue expanded from $103.2M in FY2021 to $213.1M in FY2022, $329.7M in FY2023, $597.7M in FY2024, and $879.5M in FY2025, representing a 4-year revenue CAGR of 70.9%. Gross margin stood at 67.7% in FY2025, up from 58.4% in FY2024. Profitability shifted from net income of $27.2M and an operating margin of 5.4% in FY2024 to net income of -$1.35B and an operating margin of -150.3% in FY2025. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue totaled $1.07B with an operating margin of 15.6% and a net profit margin of -127.5%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 57.2% year-over-year, and earnings grew 800.0%.

ARX income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Accelerant Holdings had $1.74B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $120.1M, resulting in net cash of $1.62B. Total assets stood at $8.94B, and shareholders' equity was $717.4M. The company has a current ratio of 7.79 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.17. In FY2025, operating cash flow was $445.1M and free cash flow was $403.7M. Capital allocation in FY2025 included $41.4M in capital expenditures and $175.3M in share buybacks.

ARX balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Accelerant Holdings has a market cap of $4.29B and an enterprise value of $2.75B, trading at a forward P/E of 22.2x and a price-to-sales ratio of 4.0x. These multiples trade at a premium to the median of its US-listed Financial Services peers, which trade at a forward P/E of 10.8x and a price-to-sales ratio of 3.2x. The enterprise value to revenue multiple is 2.4x, and price-to-book is 6.0x. Over the past year, the stock returned 50.4%, compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500 (SPY). The shares trade 33.6% above their 200-day average.

ARX key metrics →

What analysts expect

Analyst ratings comprise 0 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 5 Hold, 1 Sell, and 0 Strong Sell. The mean price target is $20.25, indicating 2.5% potential upside from the last close of $19.75. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $1.14B and EPS of $0.89. For the next fiscal year, 9 analysts project revenue of $1.25B and EPS of $0.94. The company has beaten EPS estimates in 4 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 11, 2026.

ARX forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Trailing twelve month return on equity is -222.0%, reflecting significant net losses.
  • Short interest represents 7.2% of float, indicating notable negative positioning.
  • Current fiscal year consensus estimates model an EPS growth rate of -4.0%.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this ARX AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Accelerant Holdings (ARX). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: ARX income statement, ARX balance sheet, ARX key metrics, ARX analyst forecast, ARX chart. See the ARX stock overview for the latest quote and news.

ARX AI stock analysis FAQ

What does Accelerant Holdings do?

Accelerant Holdings operates a data-driven risk exchange that connects specialty insurance underwriters with risk capital partners across Exchange Services, MGA Operations, and Underwriting segments.

Does Accelerant Holdings pay a dividend?

Accelerant Holdings does not currently report a dividend payment.

What was Accelerant Holdings' financial performance in its latest quarter?

In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, the company recorded quarterly revenue growth of 57.2% year-over-year and quarterly earnings growth of 800.0%.

What are analysts forecasting for Accelerant Holdings in FY2026?

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate revenue of $1.14B and earnings per share of $0.89.

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