Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: ALRMAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

ALRM AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) provides IoT solutions for smart home and commercial security and automation. In FY2025, revenue reached $1.01B with net income of $132.6M, representing a net margin of 13.1%. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue totaled $1.06B, though the latest quarter saw earnings decline 23.4% year-over-year.

Market cap
$2.82B
Revenue (TTM)
$1.06B
P/E
25.4x
fwd 26.2x
1Y return
13.4%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$63.00
9.8% vs last close

Bull case

  • Gross margins expanded consistently from 59.2% in FY2021 to 66.1% in FY2025.
  • Free cash flow generation remained strong in FY2025 at $137.0M on $1.01B in revenue.
  • The company trades at an EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 12.4x, well below the peer group median of 16.6x.

Bear case

  • Quarterly earnings fell 23.4% year-over-year in the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026.
  • Long-term returns have lagged the broader market, with a 5-year stock performance of -29.3% versus 83.0% for the S&P 500.
  • Forward P/E of 26.2x trades at a notable premium to the peer median of 18.8x.

What Alarm.com does

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. specializes in providing Internet of Things (IoT) solutions tailored for residential, multi-family, small business, and enterprise commercial markets across North America and globally. Operating through two segments, Alarm.com and Other, the company offers systems for controlling and monitoring security systems along with connected devices such as door locks, garage doors, thermostats, and video cameras. Its platform includes video monitoring, live streaming, cloud storage, smart automation, and energy monitoring. For commercial clients, it provides access control, enterprise dashboards, and temperature monitoring, backed by installation support services and the MobileTech Application.

Growth and profitability

Alarm.com expanded its annual revenue from $749.0M in FY2021 to $1.01B in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 10.3%. Over this span, gross margin improved from 59.2% to 66.1%, while operating margin widened from 8.2% to 13.2%. Net income grew from $52.3M to $132.6M, with EPS increasing from $2.00 to $2.50. For the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $1.06B with an operating margin of 15.1% and EPS of $2.26. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue rose 9.2% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings fell 23.4%.

ALRM income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, Alarm.com held $479.4M in cash and short-term investments against $567.5M in total debt, resulting in net debt of $88.0M. The company maintains a current ratio of 4.96 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.66 on $864.5M in shareholders' equity. In FY2025, it generated $153.3M in operating cash flow and $137.0M in free cash flow, deploying $16.3M to capital expenditures and $41.6M to share buybacks.

ALRM balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

Alarm.com trades at a trailing P/E of 25.4x, which is below the 28.1x median of its US-listed Technology peers. Its forward P/E of 26.2x is higher than the peer median of 18.8x, while its EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 12.4x sits below the peer median of 16.6x. The stock has gained 13.4% over the past year, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year period, the stock declined 29.3%, compared to an 83.0% gain for the S&P 500.

ALRM key metrics →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 2 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 2 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings. The mean price target is $63.00, representing a 9.8% premium over the last close of $57.37. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $1.08B and EPS of $2.89, an increase of 10.4%. The company has beaten EPS expectations in each of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings report scheduled for November 5, 2026.

ALRM forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Quarterly earnings growth was -23.4% in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, signaling potential profit volatility.
  • Revenue growth for next fiscal year is projected to slow to 4.7%, down from 7.6% achieved in FY2025.
  • Short interest accounts for 9.4% of float, indicating elevated negative positioning among market participants.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this ALRM AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: ALRM income statement, ALRM balance sheet, ALRM key metrics, ALRM analyst forecast, ALRM chart. See the ALRM stock overview for the latest quote and news.

ALRM AI stock analysis FAQ

What is Alarm.com's net debt position?

As of June 30, 2026, Alarm.com had $479.4M in cash and short-term investments and $567.5M in total debt, giving it a net debt of $88.0M.

Does Alarm.com pay a dividend?

Alarm.com does not pay a dividend. In FY2025, it returned capital to shareholders via $41.6M in share buybacks.

What are analysts forecasting for Alarm.com's earnings?

For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $2.89, representing 10.4% year-over-year growth, on projected revenue of $1.08B.

When is Alarm.com's next earnings date?

The company's next earnings report is scheduled for November 5, 2026.

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