Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO) AI Stock Analysis

Assured Guaranty Ltd. provides credit protection products in global financial markets. Through its Insurance and Asset Management segments, the company offers financial guaranty insurance that protects holders of debt instruments against scheduled payment defaults. In its Insurance segment, Assured Guaranty covers debt obligations including bonds issued by U.S. state governmental authorities, infrastructure projects, and public finance bonds such as healthcare, transportation, and housing revenue. The company also insures non-U.S. public finance obligations and structured finance products, encompassing residential mortgage-backed securities, life insurance transactions, and consumer receivables securities.

Assured Guaranty has experienced fluctuating top-line performance, reflected in a 5-year revenue CAGR of -6.2% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue surged 100.7% to $1.37B in FY2023 before falling 40.7% to $814.0M in FY2024 and declining 3.2% to $788.0M in FY2025. Despite revenue contraction, net income rose to $503.0M in FY2025, generating a net margin of 63.8% and an operating margin of 84.0%. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue was $813.0M with a profit margin of 43.2% and EPS of $7.51. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue fell 0.5% year-over-year and quarterly earnings declined 57.7%.

As of June 30, 2026, Assured Guaranty held $7.13B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $1.71B, resulting in net cash of $5.42B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.31. Shareholders' equity stood at $5.56B out of $12.64B in total assets. In FY2025, the company generated $259.0M in operating cash flow and free cash flow. Capital allocation was directed heavily toward shareholder returns, deploying $534.0M into share buybacks and $68.0M into dividends, contributing to a 36.6% reduction in share count over five years.

Trading at $70.85, Assured Guaranty has a market capitalization of $3.12B and an enterprise value of $4.43B. The stock trades at a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 9.4x, which is below the 12.1x median of its US-listed Financial Services peers, while its forward P/E of 11.1x sits slightly above the peer median of 10.8x. Its price-to-book ratio is 0.6x and its PEG ratio is 0.33. Over the past year, the stock fell 8.8%, underperforming the S&P 500 return of 16.8%, and its 5-year return of 46.1% trailed the benchmark return of 83.0%.

Assured Guaranty pays a forward annual dividend of $1.52 per share, representing a 2.15% dividend yield with a payout ratio of 17.2%. The company distributes dividends quarterly and has paid dividends for 23 consecutive years. Over the past five years, its annualized dividend growth rate was 11.2%, with the most recent ex-dividend date occurring on August 20, 2026.

Wall Street coverage includes 3 analysts, with 2 Strong Buy ratings, 1 Buy rating, and zero Hold or Sell recommendations. The mean price target of $91.00 represents a 28.4% upside compared to the last close of $70.85. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $883.7M and an EPS decline of 22.7% to $7.02. Assured Guaranty beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 5, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of Assured Guaranty Ltd. (AGO). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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