Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) AI Stock Analysis
ACGL AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchArch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) provides insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance products worldwide. In FY2025, the company delivered revenue of $19.93B and net income of $4.40B, supported by a 5-year revenue CAGR of 19.2%. Its trailing twelve months EPS stands at $12.78 with a return on equity of 19.9%.
- Market cap
- $34.56B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $19.23B
- P/E
- 7.9x fwd 9.6x
- 1Y return
- 17.4% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $110.13 8.8% vs last close
Bull case
- Arch Capital demonstrated strong long-term expansion with a 5-year revenue CAGR of 19.2% through FY2025.
- The company generated $6.13B in free cash flow in FY2025 and maintains a net cash position of $5.78B as of June 30, 2026.
- Shares trade at a forward P/E of 9.6x and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.8x, both below the S&P 500 Financial Services peer medians of 12.6x and 3.1x.
Bear case
- Quarterly revenue fell 10.5% and quarterly earnings declined 7.1% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
- Consensus forecasts project revenue to contract to $15.78B in FY2026 from $19.93B reported in FY2025.
- Full-year EPS is expected to decline 0.8% to $9.76 for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026.
What Arch Capital does
Arch Capital Group Ltd. is a global provider of insurance, reinsurance, and mortgage insurance solutions. The company operates across three primary segments: Insurance, Reinsurance, and Mortgage. Its Insurance unit delivers specialty coverages including property, casualty, marine, aviation, professional indemnity, cyber insurance, and workers' compensation through independent brokers. The Reinsurance segment offers risk management coverage for casualty, property, marine, aviation, catastrophe exposures, trade credit, and political risk across global broker channels. The Mortgage segment provides direct mortgage insurance and mortgage reinsurance to financial institutions and lenders to manage mortgage portfolio risk.
Growth and profitability
Arch Capital Group grew annual revenue from $8.92B in FY2021 to $19.93B in FY2025, achieving a 5-year revenue CAGR of 19.2%. Annual net income expanded from $2.16B in FY2021 to $4.40B in FY2025, while gross margin improved from 34.0% to 37.2%. In FY2025, operating margin was 25.0% and net margin reached 22.1%, yielding EPS of $9.87. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue was $19.23B with a net margin of 24.4% and EPS of $12.78. However, for the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue fell 10.5% year-over-year and quarterly earnings declined 7.1%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Arch Capital Group held $10.07B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $4.29B, resulting in net cash of $5.78B. Shareholders' equity was $24.03B and total assets were $85.18B. The company reported a current ratio of 0.67 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $6.17B and free cash flow was $6.13B. Cash deployment in FY2025 included $44.0M in capital expenditures, $47.0M in dividends paid, and $1.89B in share buybacks.
Valuation and performance
Arch Capital Group trades at a trailing P/E of 7.9x and a forward P/E of 9.6x, compared to the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers of 14.2x trailing and 12.6x forward. The company's price-to-sales multiple is 1.8x, below the peer median of 3.1x. Its price-to-book ratio is 1.4x and enterprise value stands at $37.05B. Over the past year, the stock returned 17.4%, outpacing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%. Over a 5-year period, the stock returned 150.8% versus 83.0% for the S&P 500.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analysts hold 7 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 10 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell ratings on ACGL. The mean price target is $110.13, representing an 8.8% upside from the last close of $101.27. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate EPS of $9.76 and revenue of $15.78B. Arch Capital has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is October 27, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- The company's current ratio was 0.67 as of June 30, 2026, which indicates short-term obligations exceed current assets.
- Recent financial deceleration is shown by the 10.5% year-over-year revenue drop in the quarter ended June 30, 2026.
- Analyst projections indicate flat next fiscal year revenue growth of -0.1% to $15.77B.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this ACGL AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: ACGL income statement, ACGL balance sheet, ACGL key metrics, ACGL analyst forecast, ACGL chart. See the ACGL stock overview for the latest quote and news.
ACGL AI stock analysis FAQ
What was Arch Capital Group's revenue and net income in FY2025?
Arch Capital Group generated $19.93B in revenue and $4.40B in net income in FY2025, which represented a 14.3% revenue growth rate.
What is Arch Capital Group's valuation relative to its sector peers?
ACGL trades at a forward P/E of 9.6x and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.8x. Both metrics are lower than the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers, which are 12.6x and 3.1x, respectively.
How much cash and debt does Arch Capital Group have?
As of June 30, 2026, the company held $10.07B in cash and short-term investments and $4.29B in total debt, yielding a net cash position of $5.78B.
What is the consensus analyst target price for ACGL?
The mean analyst price target is $110.13, which is 8.8% above the stock's closing price of $101.27 on October 16, 2026.