AAON, Inc. (AAON) AI Stock Analysis

AAON, Inc., founded in 1987 and headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, engineers, produces, and distributes air conditioning and heating equipment throughout North America. The company operates through three segments: AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX. Its product portfolio includes rooftop units, chillers, air handling units, data center cooling systems, cleanroom equipment, packaged outdoor mechanical rooms, energy recovery units, and geothermal or water-source heat pumps. Serving markets such as retail, manufacturing, education, healthcare, and data centers, AAON distributes its systems through independent manufacturer representatives, an internal sales force, and an online sales platform.

AAON delivered a 5-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 22.9% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue expanded from $534.5M in FY2021 to $1.17B in FY2023 and reached $1.44B in FY2025, representing a 20.1% year-over-year increase. However, gross margin compressed to 26.7% in FY2025 from 33.1% in FY2024, and operating margin dropped to 10.6% from 17.4%. Net income fell from $168.6M in FY2024 to $107.6M in FY2025. Momentum rebounded sharply in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, where quarterly revenue growth rose 101.2% year-over-year and quarterly earnings growth surged 257.9%.

As of June 30, 2026, AAON held $13,000 in cash and short-term investments alongside $463.9M in total debt, resulting in net debt of $463.9M. The company maintains a current ratio of 3.01 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.46 against shareholders' equity of $1.01B. In FY2025, operating cash flow turned negative to -$861,000, and free cash flow dropped to -$191.4M due to $190.6M in capital expenditures. Capital returns during FY2025 included $30.0M in share buybacks and $32.6M in dividends paid.

AAON trades at a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 38.8x and a forward multiple of 21.8x, compared to medians of 24.8x and 17.2x for its US-listed Industrials peers. The company's price-to-sales ratio is 3.1x and EV to EBITDA is 24.2x, versus peer medians of 1.5x and 13.9x. The stock has a PEG ratio of 0.95. Over the trailing 1-year period, AAON returned -26.0%, trailing the S&P 500 benchmark return of 16.8%, and currently trades 24.8% below its 200-day moving average.

AAON pays an annual forward dividend of $0.40 per share, which corresponds to a dividend yield of 0.54% at the last close of $73.73. The dividend payout ratio stands at 20.7%, supported by a 21-year streak of consecutive payments. The company's dividend growth over the trailing 5-year annualized period is 9.6%, with its most recent ex-dividend date on September 4, 2026.

Wall Street coverage includes 4 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, and 1 Hold ratings. The mean price target is $134.75, representing an 82.8% premium to the last closing price of $73.73. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates anticipate revenue of $2.31B and EPS of $2.38, indicating 76.7% EPS growth. The company beat EPS expectations in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings release date is November 5, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of AAON, Inc. (AAON). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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