Alcoa Corporation (AA) AI Stock Analysis

Alcoa Corporation produces and distributes bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products across operations in the United States, Spain, Australia, and Brazil. Headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, the company operates across three segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. Alcoa mines bauxite, refines it into alumina, and smelts alumina into primary aluminum products, including alloy ingots and value-add ingots. These materials serve industries such as transportation, construction, packaging, and industrial manufacturing. In addition, Alcoa owns and operates hydroelectric power plants to generate electricity internally and support its manufacturing facilities with sustainable energy.

Alcoa's revenue rose from $12.44B in FY2021 to $12.76B in FY2022, dropped 16.1% to $10.71B in FY2023, and recovered to $11.89B in FY2024 and $12.83B in FY2025. Between FY2020 and FY2025, revenue achieved a 5-year CAGR of 6.5%. Operating margin shifted from 19.0% in FY2021 down to -0.2% in FY2023 before rising to 7.6% in FY2025. Net income transitioned from a loss of -$651.0M in FY2023 to positive earnings of $60.0M in FY2024 and $1.15B in FY2025. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $14.31B with an operating margin of 16.2%. In the quarter ended September 30, 2026, revenue grew 23.7% and earnings grew 105.7% year-over-year.

As of September 30, 2026, Alcoa held $4.41B in cash and short-term investments against $4.82B in total debt, resulting in net debt of $414.0M. The company reported a current ratio of 2.31 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.58 on shareholders' equity of $8.24B. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $1.19B and free cash flow stood at $567.0M. Capital expenditures totaled $618.0M during FY2025, while dividends paid accounted for $105.0M. The company's share count increased 43.3% over the past 5 years.

Alcoa trades at a trailing P/E of 7.2x and a forward P/E of 8.0x, both below the median of its US-listed Basic Materials peers at 19.7x and 13.4x, respectively. Its enterprise value stands at $12.49B, with an EV-to-EBITDA multiple of 6.3x compared to 10.5x for its peer group. The stock has a price-to-sales ratio of 0.8x versus the peer median of 1.8x. Over the past year, the stock returned 12.5%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%, while its 5-year return fell 22.1% against an 83.0% gain for the index.

Alcoa pays an annual forward dividend of $0.40 per share, delivering a dividend yield of 0.97%. The payout ratio is 6.1%, and the company has paid dividends for 6 consecutive years. Its last ex-dividend date was October 27, 2026.

Wall Street coverage includes 8 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 3 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings. The mean price target is $59.82, representing a 44.3% upside compared to the last close of $41.45. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $6.66 on revenue of $14.82B, reflecting projected EPS growth of 76.6%. For the following fiscal year, 14 analysts project revenue of $15.25B and EPS of $5.55. Alcoa has beaten EPS estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters.

This page is an AI-written research summary of Alcoa Corporation (AA). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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