Century Aluminum Company (CENX) AI Stock Analysis
CENX AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchCentury Aluminum Company is a primary aluminum producer operating reduction facilities in the United States and Iceland. Over the trailing twelve months, the company generated $2.67B in revenue with a net profit margin of 22.6%. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 6.1x following a 1-year return of 7.8%.
- Market cap
- $3.47B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $2.67B
- P/E
- 6.1x fwd 6.5x
- 1Y return
- 7.8% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $60.20 71.9% vs last close
Bull case
- Trailing twelve-month operating margin of 28.1% sits above the US-listed Basic Materials peer median of 18.5%.
- Wall Street analysts project current fiscal year EPS of $9.91, representing estimated year-over-year earnings growth of 302.9%.
- The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 6.1x and forward P/E of 6.5x, well below peer medians of 19.7x and 13.4x.
Bear case
- The company recorded 0 EPS beats over the last 4 quarters, highlighting consistent difficulty meeting consensus expectations.
- The stock closed at $35.03 on October 16, 2026, trading 30.5% below its 200-day moving average and down 10.6% year-to-date.
- Century Aluminum exhibits high volatility with a beta of 2.08, while short interest represents 13.4% of the float.
What Century Aluminum does
Century Aluminum Company, headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, produces standard-grade and value-added primary aluminum products. Founded in 1981, the company operates production facilities in the United States and Iceland. It also owns and manages a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands, which supports its primary aluminum operations and diversifies production capabilities. Century Aluminum serves customers across diverse sectors, including automotive, aerospace, construction, and packaging. The company focuses on manufacturing efficiency, operational excellence, and sustainability initiatives aimed at minimizing its environmental footprint.
Growth and profitability
Century Aluminum delivered a 5-year revenue CAGR of 9.5% from FY2020 to FY2025. Revenue grew 13.9% in FY2025 to $2.53B, up from $2.22B in FY2024 and $2.19B in FY2023. Gross margin reached 10.1% in FY2025, while operating margin expanded to 6.3% from 5.5% in FY2024. Net income totaled $41.8M in FY2025, generating diluted EPS of $2.12. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue was $2.67B with an operating margin of 28.1% and net profit margin of 22.6%. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue increased 19.7% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings rose 1009.8%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Century Aluminum held $343.4M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $480.0M, resulting in net debt of $136.6M. The company maintained a current ratio of 2.75 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.34 alongside shareholders' equity of $1.40B. In FY2025, operating cash flow reached $183.6M and free cash flow was $84.8M. Capital deployment in FY2025 included $98.8M in capital expenditures and $4.7M in share buybacks.
Valuation and performance
Century Aluminum trades at a trailing P/E of 6.1x and a forward P/E of 6.5x, below the median of its US-listed Basic Materials peers at 19.7x and 13.4x, respectively. Its enterprise value stands at $3.98B with an EV/EBITDA of 5.6x, compared to the peer median of 10.5x. The price-to-sales ratio is 1.3x against the peer median of 1.8x, and its PEG ratio is 0.06. Over the past year, the stock returned 7.8%, trailing the S&P 500 return of 16.8%, but its 5-year return of 103.1% outpaced the index return of 83.0%.
What analysts expect
Of the 5 covering analysts, 4 rate Century Aluminum a Strong Buy and 1 rates it a Hold. The mean price target is $60.20, representing 71.9% upside from the last close of $35.03. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project EPS of $9.91 and revenue of $3.33B. For the following fiscal year, 4 analysts estimate revenue of $4.14B and EPS of $11.40. Century Aluminum recorded 0 EPS beats over the last 4 quarters. The next earnings date is November 5, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Total debt stands at $480.0M against $343.4M in cash, leaving net debt at $136.6M.
- Historical annual revenue shows cyclical swings, including a 21.3% decline in FY2023.
- Free cash flow has fluctuated significantly, moving from -$106.9M in FY2024 to $84.8M in FY2025.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this CENX AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Century Aluminum Company (CENX). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: CENX income statement, CENX balance sheet, CENX key metrics, CENX analyst forecast, CENX chart. See the CENX stock overview for the latest quote and news.
CENX AI stock analysis FAQ
Does Century Aluminum pay a dividend?
Century Aluminum does not currently pay a dividend. In FY2025, the company deployed capital toward $98.8M in capital expenditures and $4.7M in share repurchases.
What is Century Aluminum's valuation compared to basic materials peers?
Century Aluminum trades at an EV/EBITDA of 5.6x and a price-to-sales ratio of 1.3x. Both multiples are lower than the US-listed Basic Materials peer medians of 10.5x and 1.8x, respectively.
When does Century Aluminum report its next earnings?
The company is scheduled to report its next earnings on November 5, 2026. Consensus analyst estimates project revenue of $3.33B for the full fiscal year ending December 31, 2026.
What is the analyst price target for CENX stock?
Covering analysts have a mean price target of $60.20 for Century Aluminum. This target implies 71.9% upside compared to the last close price of $35.03 on October 16, 2026.