Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL) AI Stock Analysis
VITL AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchVital Farms, Inc. (VITL) produces pasture-raised shell eggs, butter, and related food products. While annual revenue grew from $260.9M in FY2021 to $759.4M in FY2025, trailing twelve months operating margin fell to -24.2% and quarterly revenue dropped 10.1% year-over-year. The stock has decreased 79.2% over the past year.
- Market cap
- $360.6M
- Revenue (TTM)
- $765.7M
- P/E
- — fwd 208.3x
- 1Y return
- -79.2% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $12.67 50.8% vs last close
Bull case
- Vital Farms generated a 5-year revenue CAGR of 28.8% through FY2025 as annual sales expanded to $759.4M.
- Analysts project next fiscal year revenue to grow 7.2% to $821.1M alongside a rebound in EPS to $0.30.
- The average analyst price target of $12.67 indicates a 50.8% potential upside from the October 16, 2026 closing price of $8.40.
Bear case
- Quarterly revenue fell 10.1% year-over-year in the period ended June 30, 2026, alongside an operating margin of -24.2% over the trailing twelve months.
- Free cash flow dropped to -$48.2M in FY2025 due to substantial capital expenditures of $82.0M.
- The stock carries a high forward P/E of 208.3x and a heavy short interest of 29.1% of float after declining 79.2% over the past year.
What Vital Farms does
Vital Farms, Inc. is an ethical food company founded in 2007 and based in Austin, Texas. It specializes in pasture-raised products across the United States, partnering with independent family farms to prioritize humane animal treatment, pasture-raising methods, and environmental stewardship. The company's product line includes shell eggs, butter, hard-boiled eggs, ghee, liquid whole eggs, and egg bite products. Vital Farms also participates in community outreach and education initiatives to promote sourcing transparency and help consumers make informed food choices.
Growth and profitability
Between FY2021 and FY2025, Vital Farms expanded its annual revenue from $260.9M to $759.4M, posting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 28.8%. Gross margin rose from 31.8% in FY2021 to 37.6% in FY2025, while net income increased from $2.4M to $66.3M. However, performance softened over the trailing twelve months, which generated $765.7M in revenue with an operating margin of -24.2% and EPS of -$0.05. In the quarter ended June 30, 2026, revenue fell 10.1% year-over-year, though quarterly earnings grew 51.3%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Vital Farms held $21.2M in cash and short-term investments against $108.2M in total debt, resulting in net debt of $87.0M. Shareholders' equity was $283.7M, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38 and a current ratio of 1.10. Operating cash flow in FY2025 totaled $33.7M, but high capital expenditures of $82.0M led to free cash flow of -$48.2M. Over five years, the company's share count increased 7.3%.
Valuation and performance
VITL trades at a forward P/E of 208.3x, significantly above the 14.3x median of its US-listed Consumer Defensive peers. Its price-to-sales multiple is 0.5x, below the peer median of 0.7x, while its EV-to-EBITDA stands at 27.0x compared to the peer median of 11.7x. The stock has dropped 79.2% over the past year and 53.1% over five years, underperforming the S&P 500 (SPY), which gained 16.8% and 83.0% over those respective periods.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analysts hold 3 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, and 6 Hold recommendations on VITL. The mean price target of $12.67 represents a 50.8% premium over the last close of $8.40. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate an EPS loss of -$0.38 on revenue of $766.2M. For the next fiscal year, 4 analysts project EPS to rebound to $0.30 with revenue reaching $821.1M. Vital Farms beat EPS estimates once over the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 3, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Trailing twelve-month operating margin sits at -24.2% and EPS is negative at -$0.05, pointing to current profitability challenges.
- The balance sheet carries $87.0M in net debt with cash reserves down to $21.2M as of June 30, 2026.
- Vital Farms has beaten analyst EPS estimates in only 1 of the last 4 quarters, while short interest stands high at 29.1% of float.
- The stock trades 44.3% below its 200-day average and has dropped 73.7% year-to-date.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this VITL AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Vital Farms, Inc. (VITL). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: VITL income statement, VITL balance sheet, VITL key metrics, VITL analyst forecast, VITL chart. See the VITL stock overview for the latest quote and news.
VITL AI stock analysis FAQ
Does Vital Farms pay a dividend?
Vital Farms does not pay a dividend. The company directs its operating capital toward business operations and capital expenditures, which were $82.0M in FY2025.
What is Vital Farms' debt position?
As of June 30, 2026, Vital Farms reported $108.2M in total debt and $21.2M in cash and short-term investments, resulting in net debt of $87.0M. Its debt-to-equity ratio is 0.38.
When does Vital Farms report earnings next?
Vital Farms is scheduled to report earnings on November 3, 2026. Over the prior four quarters, it beat consensus EPS estimates once.
What do analysts expect for Vital Farms' earnings in FY2026 and FY2027?
For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts estimate an EPS loss of -$0.38 on revenue of $766.2M. For the following fiscal year, 4 analysts forecast EPS to recover to $0.30 on revenue of $821.1M.