Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) AI Stock Analysis

Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates at the intersection of finance and technology, utilizing a cloud-based artificial intelligence lending platform in the United States. Founded in 2012 and based in San Mateo, California, the platform aggregates consumer demand for loans and connects borrowers with bank partners. Upstart assesses creditworthiness beyond traditional credit scores by analyzing multiple data points through machine learning models. This approach enables the company to offer competitive rates to a wider variety of borrowers, including those with limited credit histories, with the goal of improving financial inclusion and lending efficiency.

Upstart delivered a five-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 35.7% from FY2020 to FY2025. Annual revenue fluctuated, falling 35.0% to $547.7M in FY2023 with a net income of -$240.1M, before rebounding 23.6% to $677.0M in FY2024 and 58.9% to $1.08B in FY2025. Net income reached $53.6M in FY2025, alongside a gross margin of 95.2% and an operating margin of 5.1%. For the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $1.29B with a profit margin of 4.7%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 42.3% year-over-year, while quarterly earnings expanded 211.2%.

As of June 30, 2026, Upstart held $456.0M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $2.03B, resulting in net debt of $1.57B. Total assets stood at $3.17B and shareholders' equity was $797.5M, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.54 and a current ratio of 14.10. Operating cash flow was -$147.7M in FY2025, with free cash flow at -$166.1M after capital expenditures of $18.4M. Its share count increased 11.0% over five years.

At a last close of $23.56, Upstart carries a market cap of $2.29B and an enterprise value of $3.89B. It trades at a trailing P/E of 47.1x and a forward P/E of 13.6x, compared to medians of 12.1x and 10.8x for its US-listed Financial Services peers. Its price-to-sales ratio of 1.8x is below the peer median of 3.2x. Over the past year, the stock declined 50.7%, trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) gain of 16.8%. Over five years, the shares fell 94.0% while SPY gained 83.0%.

Wall Street analysts maintain 6 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 7 Hold, and 1 Sell ratings on UPST. The mean price target of $38.38 implies a 62.9% upside from the last close of $23.56. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $1.42B and EPS of $2.29, representing 21.4% EPS growth. Upstart beat EPS estimates in 2 of the past 4 quarters. The next earnings report is scheduled for November 3, 2026.

This page is an AI-written research summary of Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

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