Mastercard Incorporated (MA) AI Stock Analysis
MA AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchMastercard Incorporated is a global payment technology company operating transaction processing networks and value-added payment services. In FY2025, the company generated $32.79B in revenue with a net margin of 45.6% and free cash flow of $16.43B. Over the trailing twelve months, revenue reached $35.08B with an operating margin of 61.1%.
- Market cap
- $540.87B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $35.08B
- P/E
- 34.0x fwd 24.2x
- 1Y return
- 13.0% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $672.09 8.9% vs last close
Bull case
- Mastercard achieved a 5-year revenue CAGR of 16.5% through FY2025, driven by ongoing transaction growth and expanding digital payment volumes.
- Operating profitability remains high, reflected in a trailing twelve-month operating margin of 61.1% and a net profit margin of 46.3%.
- Capital return programs have reduced share count by 10.4% over 5 years, supported by $16.43B in free cash flow generated in FY2025.
Bear case
- Mastercard's trailing P/E of 34.0x trades at a substantial premium to the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers at 14.2x.
- The balance sheet carries total debt of $24.64B and net debt of $13.03B, resulting in an elevated debt-to-equity ratio of 4.39.
- Stock performance has lagged broader benchmarks, with a 1-year return of 13.0% trailing the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%.
What Mastercard does
Mastercard Incorporated operates as a global technology company specializing in transaction processing and payment-related services worldwide. It facilitates payment transactions through authorization, clearing, settlement, and related products for account holders, merchants, financial institutions, governments, and businesses. Its portfolio includes prepaid programs, commercial credit and debit payment solutions, and payment gateway solutions for e-commerce merchants. Additionally, Mastercard delivers value-added services such as cyber and intelligence solutions, analytics, consulting, managed services, loyalty programs, open banking, and digital identity platforms under brand names including MasterCard, Maestro, and Cirrus.
Growth and profitability
Between FY2021 and FY2025, Mastercard's revenue increased from $18.88B to $32.79B, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 16.5%. Annual net income expanded from $8.69B in FY2021 to $14.97B in FY2025, while diluted EPS grew from $8.41 to $17.02. Operating margin remained stable across this period, recording 53.4% in FY2021 and 57.6% in FY2025, with gross margin at 100.0% each year. For the trailing twelve months ending June 30, 2026, revenue totaled $35.08B with a profit margin of 46.3%. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 14.1% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings grew 22.1%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Mastercard held $11.61B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $24.64B, resulting in net debt of $13.03B. Shareholders' equity stood at $5.61B, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.39 and a current ratio of 1.06. In FY2025, the company generated $17.65B in operating cash flow and deployed capital toward $1.22B in capital expenditures, $11.73B in share buybacks, and $2.76B in dividends paid.
Valuation and performance
At a last close of $617.42, Mastercard has a market capitalization of $540.87B and trades at a trailing P/E of 34.0x and a forward P/E of 24.2x. These valuation multiples trade at a premium to the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers, which report a trailing P/E of 14.2x and a forward P/E of 12.2x. The stock trades at an EV to EBITDA of 22.8x compared to the peer median of 15.1x. Over the past year, Mastercard returned 13.0% compared to 16.8% for the S&P 500 (SPY), while its 5-year return of 78.7% trailed the index's 83.0%.
MA dividend
Mastercard pays an annual forward dividend of $3.48 per share, representing a dividend yield of 0.56% and a payout ratio of 18.5%. The company has paid quarterly dividends for 21 consecutive years, delivering a 5-year annualized dividend growth rate of 13.7%. Its most recent ex-dividend date occurred on October 9, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analysts maintain 27 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, and 4 Hold ratings on Mastercard, with 0 Sell ratings. The mean price target of $672.09 represents an upside of 8.9% over the last close of $617.42. For the current fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $37.27B and EPS of $19.94, representing 17.2% earnings growth. Mastercard has beaten EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is scheduled for October 29, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- A debt-to-equity ratio of 4.39 and $24.64B in total debt elevate financial obligations relative to shareholders' equity of $5.61B.
- Trading at an EV to EBITDA of 22.8x compared to the peer median of 15.1x leaves the valuation sensitive to any deceleration in growth.
- A modest current ratio of 1.06 indicates limited excess working capital buffer against short-term liquidity demands.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this MA AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Mastercard Incorporated (MA). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: MA income statement, MA balance sheet, MA key metrics, MA analyst forecast, MA chart. See the MA stock overview for the latest quote and news.
MA AI stock analysis FAQ
What was Mastercard's revenue and earnings growth in FY2025?
In FY2025, Mastercard reported revenue of $32.79B, up 16.4% from the prior year, while net income increased to $14.97B and EPS reached $17.02.
Does Mastercard pay a dividend?
Yes, Mastercard pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward payout of $3.48 per share, yielding 0.56% with a payout ratio of 18.5%.
How does Mastercard's valuation compare to sector peers?
Mastercard trades at a trailing P/E of 34.0x and forward P/E of 24.2x, above the median of its S&P 500 Financial Services peers at 14.2x and 12.2x, respectively.
When is Mastercard's next earnings report?
Mastercard's next earnings date is scheduled for October 29, 2026.