Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) AI Stock Analysis
ULCC AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchFrontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC) is a low-fare passenger airline operating across the United States and the Americas. In FY2025, revenue contracted 1.4% to $3.72B alongside a net loss of -$137.0M, while total debt reached $5.24B as of June 30, 2026. However, quarterly revenue grew 37.7% year-over-year in the latest quarter ending June 30, 2026.
- Market cap
- $1.09B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $4.15B
- P/E
- — fwd 11.7x
- 1Y return
- 10.8% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $6.33 34.2% vs last close
Bull case
- Quarterly revenue increased 37.7% year-over-year in the latest quarter ending June 30, 2026.
- Analysts' mean price target of $6.33 implies upside of 34.2% from the last close of $4.72.
- Frontier beat EPS estimates in each of its last 4 quarters while consensus estimates project revenue growing 10.5% in the next fiscal year to $5.41B.
Bear case
- Free cash flow was -$624.0M in FY2025 following an operating cash flow loss of -$525.0M.
- Net debt stood at $4.29B as of June 30, 2026, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 38.54.
- Short interest is elevated, with short percent of float at 40.1%.
What Frontier does
Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. is a low-fare airline specializing in passenger air transportation, connecting approximately 120 airports across the United States and international destinations in the Americas. Founded in 2013 and headquartered in Denver, Colorado, the company distributes flights through direct channels such as its website, mobile application, and call center services. As of December 31, 2021, Frontier operated a fleet of 110 Airbus single-aisle aircraft, including 16 A320ceos, 73 A320neos, and 21 A321ceos. The company employs 8,352 people and focuses on operational efficiency, customer service, and cost-effective air travel.
Growth and profitability
Frontier's revenue expanded from $2.06B in FY2021 to $3.77B in FY2024 before dropping 1.4% to $3.72B in FY2025, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 24.4% from FY2020 to FY2025. Profitability has fluctuated over this period; operating margin shifted from -5.7% in FY2021 to 1.5% in FY2024, but retreated to -4.0% in FY2025. Net income was -$137.0M in FY2025, down from $85.0M in FY2024. For the trailing twelve months, revenue was $4.15B with an operating margin of -9.2% and EPS of -$1.68. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue grew 37.7% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings rose 1.0%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Frontier held $955.0M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $5.24B, resulting in net debt of $4.29B. Total assets stood at $7.24B, while shareholders' equity was $136.0M, generating a debt-to-equity ratio of 38.54 and a current ratio of 0.58. Operating cash flow in FY2025 was -$525.0M, and free cash flow was -$624.0M after capital expenditures of $99.0M. Additionally, the company's share count increased 6.5% over 5 years.
Valuation and performance
At a market cap of $1.09B and enterprise value of $5.63B, Frontier trades at a forward P/E of 11.7x, below the 17.2x median of its US-listed Industrials peers. Its price-to-sales ratio is 0.3x compared to the peer median of 1.5x, while EV/EBITDA stands at 100.0x versus the peer median of 13.9x. The stock closed at $4.72 on October 16, 2026, gaining 10.8% over the past year compared to a 16.8% return for the S&P 500 (SPY). Over 5 years, Frontier returned -71.0% against an 83.0% gain for the S&P 500.
What analysts expect
Wall Street analysts cover Frontier with 0 Strong Buy, 0 Buy, 9 Hold, and 3 Sell ratings. The mean price target is $6.33, which is 34.2% above the last close of $4.72. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project an EPS of -$0.55 on revenue of $4.90B. For the next fiscal year, 12 analysts anticipate an EPS of $0.25 and revenue of $5.41B. Frontier achieved 4 EPS beats over the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is November 4, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- Liquidity risk is elevated by a current ratio of 0.58 and total debt of $5.24B against $136.0M in shareholders' equity as of June 30, 2026.
- Operating performance remains pressured with a trailing twelve-month operating margin of -9.2% and return on equity of -120.2%.
- Stock price volatility is notable, indicated by a beta of 2.65 and a 5-year return of -71.0%.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this ULCC AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. (ULCC). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: ULCC income statement, ULCC balance sheet, ULCC key metrics, ULCC analyst forecast, ULCC chart. See the ULCC stock overview for the latest quote and news.
ULCC AI stock analysis FAQ
Does Frontier Group Holdings pay a dividend?
Frontier Group Holdings does not pay a dividend. The company directs its capital toward operations and capital expenditures, which totaled $99.0M in FY2025.
What is Frontier's debt position?
As of June 30, 2026, Frontier reported total debt of $5.24B and cash and short-term investments of $955.0M, resulting in net debt of $4.29B. Its debt-to-equity ratio was 38.54 and its current ratio was 0.58.
What are analysts forecasting for Frontier's earnings?
For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, analysts forecast an EPS of -$0.55 on revenue of $4.90B. For the following fiscal year, 12 analysts project EPS to rebound to $0.25 alongside revenue of $5.41B.
How has ULCC stock performed compared to the broader market?
Over the past year, ULCC shares gained 10.8% compared to a 16.8% return for the S&P 500 (SPY). Over a 5-year timeframe, the stock declined 71.0% while the S&P 500 gained 83.0%.