Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) AI Stock Analysis
STX AI stock analysis summary
AI ResearchSeagate Technology Holdings plc is a global provider of data storage technology and solutions. In FY2026, the company generated $12.20B in revenue, marking 34.1% year-over-year growth, and earned net income of $3.18B. For the trailing twelve months, operating margin reached 43.1% alongside quarterly revenue growth of 48.5%.
- Market cap
- $145.31B
- Revenue (TTM)
- $12.20B
- P/E
- 46.0x fwd 25.7x
- 1Y return
- 184.4% S&P 500 16.8%
- Avg. target
- $1125.21 76.1% vs last close
Bull case
- In FY2026, free cash flow expanded to $3.10B while operating margin reached 33.6%.
- Quarterly earnings growth was 148.8% year-over-year for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, supported by 48.5% quarterly revenue growth.
- Analyst estimates forecast current fiscal year EPS of $36.34, representing expected growth of 133.2%.
Bear case
- The company's EV to EBITDA multiple of 49.7x sits above the median of its Nasdaq-100 Technology peers at 30.6x.
- Balance sheet leverage remains notable with total debt of $3.86B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.78 as of June 30, 2026.
- Long-term revenue expansion has been modest, with a 5-year revenue CAGR of 2.7% from FY2021 to FY2026.
What Seagate does
Seagate Technology Holdings plc specializes in delivering advanced data storage technology and solutions globally, operating across Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other regions. The company offers mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline HDDs and SSDs, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. It also provides Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs for legacy applications, as well as external storage solutions under the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, Expansion, and LaCie brands. Additionally, Seagate developed the Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform to support data management. Founded in 1978 and based in Dublin, Ireland, Seagate serves OEMs, distributors, and retailers.
Growth and profitability
Seagate experienced cyclical swings before returning to growth over recent fiscal years. Revenue declined 36.7% in FY2023 to $7.38B and fell 11.3% in FY2024 to $6.55B, before rebounding 38.9% in FY2025 to $9.10B and 34.1% in FY2026 to $12.20B. Over the 5-year period from FY2021 to FY2026, revenue CAGR was 2.7%. Operating margin improved from -4.6% in FY2023 to 33.6% in FY2026, while gross margin reached 45.6%. In FY2026, net income reached $3.18B with diluted EPS of $15.30. In the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue growth was 48.5% year-over-year and quarterly earnings growth reached 148.8%.
Balance sheet and cash flow
As of June 30, 2026, Seagate held $1.70B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $3.86B, resulting in net debt of $2.15B. Shareholders' equity was $2.17B and total assets totaled $9.97B, yielding a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.78 and a current ratio of 1.59. In FY2026, the company generated $3.67B in operating cash flow and $3.10B in free cash flow. Capital expenditures totaled $569.0M, while capital returns included $176.0M in share buybacks and $634.0M in dividends paid.
Valuation and performance
At a last close price of $639.01 on October 16, 2026, Seagate had a market capitalization of $145.31B and an enterprise value of $211.32B. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 46.0x and a forward P/E of 25.7x, compared to 42.1x and 25.1x for the median of its Nasdaq-100 Technology peers. Its EV to EBITDA multiple is 49.7x, above the peer median of 30.6x, while its price-to-sales multiple of 11.9x is below the peer median of 12.4x. Over the past year, STX gained 184.4%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%.
STX dividend
Seagate pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward dividend of $2.96 per share, representing a dividend yield of 0.46%. The company maintains a payout ratio of 19.4% and has paid dividends for 16 consecutive years. Over the past five years, the dividend grew at an annualized rate of 2.1%. The stock's last ex-dividend date was September 24, 2026.
What analysts expect
Wall Street coverage consists of 19 Strong Buy, 4 Buy, and 3 Hold ratings, with 0 Sell and 0 Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target is $1125.21, representing an upside of 76.1% compared to the last close of $639.01. For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2027, analysts estimate revenue of $19.02B and EPS of $36.34, representing EPS growth of 133.2%. Seagate exceeded EPS estimates in each of the last 4 quarters, and its next earnings date is October 27, 2026.
Key risks and what to watch
- The stock exhibits high price volatility with a beta of 2.08 and traded between a 52-week low of $209.00 and a 52-week high of $1145.00.
- Operating performance is exposed to industry downturns, as seen in FY2023 when revenue fell 36.7% and net income was -$529.0M.
- Net debt of $2.15B as of June 30, 2026, creates ongoing servicing obligations.
AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer
About this STX AI stock analysis
This page is an AI-written research summary of Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.
Related: STX income statement, STX balance sheet, STX key metrics, STX analyst forecast, STX chart. See the STX stock overview for the latest quote and news.
STX AI stock analysis FAQ
Does Seagate pay a dividend?
Yes, Seagate pays a quarterly dividend with an annual forward rate of $2.96 per share, yielding 0.46% with a payout ratio of 19.4%.
What is Seagate's net debt?
As of June 30, 2026, Seagate held $1.70B in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $3.86B, resulting in net debt of $2.15B.
How has STX stock performed over the past year?
Over the trailing 1-year period, STX returned 184.4%, compared to a 16.8% return for the S&P 500 (SPY).
What are analysts projecting for Seagate's current fiscal year?
For the fiscal year ending June 30, 2027, analysts estimate revenue of $19.02B and EPS of $36.34, representing an estimated EPS increase of 133.2%.