Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) AI Stock Analysis

NASDAQ: SMCIAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

SMCI AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) manufactures high-performance server and storage solutions for cloud, AI, and enterprise data centers. The company generated $39.06B in revenue in FY2026, delivering 77.8% annual revenue growth and net income of $2.23B. Despite strong top-line expansion, operating cash flow dropped to -$6.81B and free cash flow stood at -$6.97B in FY2026.

Market cap
$20.78B
Revenue (TTM)
$39.06B
P/E
9.7x
fwd 10.2x
1Y return
-41.3%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$42.27
33.6% vs last close

Bull case

  • FY2026 revenue increased 77.8% year-over-year to $39.06B, supported by 93.2% quarterly revenue growth in the period ended June 30, 2026.
  • SMCI trades at a trailing P/E of 9.7x and a forward P/E of 10.2x, lower than the median of its S&P 500 Technology peers at 31.5x and 20.9x.
  • The mean analyst price target of $42.27 implies an upside of 33.6% compared to the October 16, 2026 closing price of $31.63.

Bear case

  • Free cash flow fell to -$6.97B in FY2026 alongside an operating cash flow deficit of -$6.81B.
  • Gross margin compressed from 18.0% in FY2023 to 10.8% in FY2026.
  • The stock declined 41.3% over the trailing one-year period while the S&P 500 generated a 16.8% return.

What Supermicro does

Super Micro Computer, Inc., and its subsidiaries specialize in the development and manufacturing of advanced server and storage solutions known for their high performance and modular, open architecture. Its product lineup spans complete servers, modular blade servers, storage systems, networking devices, and server management software such as Supermicro Server Manager and SuperCloud Composer. These offerings cater to enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and 5G and edge computing markets. The company also provides subsystems including server boards, chassis, and power supplies, alongside integration, configuration, software upgrade, and technical documentation services with global customer support.

Growth and profitability

Revenue expanded from $5.20B in FY2022 to $39.06B in FY2026, reflecting a 5-year revenue CAGR of 61.5%. Net income rose from $285.2M in FY2022 to $2.23B in FY2026, with diluted EPS increasing from $0.57 to $3.50. However, gross margin declined from 15.4% in FY2022 to 10.8% in FY2026, while operating margin shifted from 6.5% to 7.1% over the same period after peaking at 10.7% in FY2023. For the latest quarter ended June 30, 2026, quarterly revenue growth reached 93.2% year-over-year, and quarterly earnings grew 434.7% year-over-year. TTM revenue reached $39.06B with a profit margin of 5.7% and EPS of $3.26.

SMCI income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, the company held $7.52B in cash and short-term investments against $6.68B in total debt, resulting in net cash of $841.0M. Shareholders' equity was $14.48B, and total assets stood at $29.95B. The balance sheet reflects a current ratio of 3.87 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.46. In FY2026, cash burn was substantial, with operating cash flow of -$6.81B and free cash flow of -$6.97B. Capital expenditures totaled $162.0M, while share buybacks were $996,000.

SMCI balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

SMCI trades at a trailing P/E of 9.7x and a forward P/E of 10.2x, which sit below the median of its S&P 500 Technology peers at 31.5x and 20.9x, respectively. The company's price-to-sales ratio is 0.5x compared to the peer median of 6.3x, and its EV/EBITDA is 10.6x against the peer median of 19.9x. SMCI has a PEG ratio of 0.91 and a market capitalization of $20.78B. Over the past year, SMCI shares declined 41.3%, underperforming the SPY return of 16.8%, though its 5-year return of 792.5% exceeded the SPY return of 83.0%.

SMCI key metrics →

What analysts expect

Consensus ratings include 2 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 11 Hold, 1 Sell, and 2 Strong Sell recommendations. The mean price target is $42.27, representing a 33.6% premium over the last close of $31.63. For the current fiscal year ending June 30, 2027, analysts project revenue of $67.13B and EPS of $4.34, representing 19.5% EPS growth. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, and the next earnings date is November 3, 2026.

SMCI forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Operating cash flow was negative at -$6.81B in FY2026, highlighting ongoing working capital and cash consumption needs.
  • Gross margins have declined steadily over recent years, dropping from 14.1% in FY2024 to 10.8% in FY2026.
  • The stock displays elevated volatility with a beta of 2.01 and a short interest representing 14.8% of float.
  • Dilution has increased share supply, with the 5-year share count expanding by 30.3%.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this SMCI AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: SMCI income statement, SMCI balance sheet, SMCI key metrics, SMCI analyst forecast, SMCI chart. See the SMCI stock overview for the latest quote and news.

SMCI AI stock analysis FAQ

What was Super Micro Computer's revenue and earnings in FY2026?

In FY2026, Super Micro Computer reported revenue of $39.06B, a 77.8% increase over FY2025. Net income was $2.23B, and diluted EPS was $3.50.

Does Super Micro Computer pay a dividend?

No, Super Micro Computer does not currently pay a dividend.

How does SMCI's valuation compare to its peer group?

SMCI trades at a trailing P/E of 9.7x and an EV/EBITDA of 10.6x, compared to the median of its S&P 500 Technology peers of 31.5x trailing P/E and 19.9x EV/EBITDA.

What is the cash and debt position of SMCI?

As of June 30, 2026, SMCI had $7.52B in cash and short-term investments and $6.68B in total debt, leaving it with net cash of $841.0M.

When is Super Micro Computer's next earnings report?

The company's next earnings date is scheduled for November 3, 2026.

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