SM Energy Company (SM) AI Stock Analysis

NYSE: SMAI research summary: business, growth, valuation, analysts, bull and bear case.

SM AI stock analysis summary

AI Research

SM Energy Company (NYSE: SM) is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company operating primarily in Texas. The company delivered trailing twelve months revenue of $4.96B with an operating margin of 60.3%, while maintaining an enterprise value of $5.46B. Over the past year, SM shares returned 88.9%, significantly outpacing the broader market.

Market cap
$9.40B
Revenue (TTM)
$4.96B
P/E
7.0x
fwd 4.4x
1Y return
88.9%
S&P 500 16.8%
Avg. target
$44.56
12.8% vs last close

Bull case

  • Trailing twelve months operating margin reached 60.3%, compared to the US-listed Energy peer median of 28.5%.
  • Quarterly revenue for the period ending June 30, 2026, surged 176.1% year-over-year, accompanied by 153.9% quarterly earnings growth.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 4.4x and a PEG ratio of 0.16, well below peer medians.

Bear case

  • Total debt reached $7.04B as of June 30, 2026, leaving net debt at $6.42B alongside a low current ratio of 0.62.
  • Share count has expanded by 93.5% over the trailing 5-year period.
  • Free cash flow has shown volatility, falling to -$1.63B in FY2024 before recovering to $573.0M in FY2025.

What SM Energy does

SM Energy Company operates as an independent energy company focused on the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids primarily in Texas. With a strategic presence in the prolific Midland Basin and South Texas regions, the company held substantial working interests in 825 gross productive oil wells and 483 gross productive gas wells as of February 24, 2022, alongside an estimated 492.0 million barrels of oil equivalent in proved reserves. Headquartered in Denver, Colorado, SM Energy traces its founding to 1908 and was formerly known as St. Mary Land & Exploration Company before rebranding in May 2010.

Growth and profitability

SM Energy generated revenue of $3.15B in FY2025, up 18.1% from $2.67B in FY2024. Over the five years from FY2020 to FY2025, revenue expanded at a compound annual growth rate of 22.9%. Annual net income totaled $648.0M in FY2025 with a net margin of 20.5% and EPS of $5.42. Performance accelerated sharply in the latest quarter ending June 30, 2026, where quarterly revenue grew 176.1% year-over-year and quarterly earnings grew 153.9% year-over-year, lifting trailing twelve months revenue to $4.96B and trailing twelve months EPS to $5.64.

SM income statement →

Balance sheet and cash flow

As of June 30, 2026, SM Energy held $620.0M in cash and short-term investments against total debt of $7.04B, resulting in net debt of $6.42B. Shareholders' equity stood at $7.81B, supporting a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.90, while the current ratio was 0.62. In FY2025, the company generated $2.01B in operating cash flow and $573.0M in free cash flow. Capital allocation in FY2025 included $1.44B in capital expenditures, $92.0M in dividends paid, and $13.0M in share buybacks.

SM balance sheet →

Valuation and performance

SM trades at a trailing price-to-earnings multiple of 7.0x and a forward P/E of 4.4x, both well below the median of its US-listed Energy peers, which stand at 15.0x and 12.7x, respectively. Its enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.4x is also lower than the peer median of 8.0x. The company's price-to-book ratio is 0.6x and its PEG ratio is 0.16. Over the trailing 1-year period, the stock gained 88.9%, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) return of 16.8%, while its 5-year return of 50.2% trailed SPY's 83.0%.

SM key metrics →

SM dividend

SM Energy pays a quarterly dividend with a forward annual rate of $0.88 per share, representing a dividend yield of 2.23%. The company has paid consecutive dividends for 34 years and maintains a payout ratio of 14.6%. Its last ex-dividend date was September 4, 2026.

SM dividend history →

What analysts expect

Wall Street coverage includes 9 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell ratings. The mean price target of $44.56 implies an upside of 12.8% over the last close of $39.50. For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2026, consensus estimates project revenue of $7.76B and EPS of $7.82, representing 44.2% EPS growth. The company beat EPS estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with its next earnings report scheduled for November 3, 2026.

SM forecast and price target →

Key risks and what to watch

  • Liquidity pressure could arise given a current ratio of 0.62 and cash of $620.0M against $7.04B in total debt.
  • Capital expenditure requirements remain significant, consuming $1.44B in FY2025.
  • Revenue growth for next fiscal year is projected by 11 analysts to slow to 0.9%.

AI-generated research summary. Written with AI from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 and checked so every figure matches that data. For information only, not investment advice. Disclaimer

About this SM AI stock analysis

This page is an AI-written research summary of SM Energy Company (SM). The text was generated on October 30, 2026 from Quotelinks data as of October 16, 2026 (company profile, annual results, latest balance sheet, valuation, price performance and analyst estimates). An automatic check rejects any draft that contains a figure not found in that data. It is not investment advice; verify figures on the linked tabs before making decisions.

Related: SM income statement, SM balance sheet, SM key metrics, SM analyst forecast, SM chart. See the SM stock overview for the latest quote and news.

SM AI stock analysis FAQ

What is SM Energy's current dividend yield?

SM Energy offers a dividend yield of 2.23% based on an annual forward dividend of $0.88 per share. The company has paid dividends for 34 consecutive years with a payout ratio of 14.6%.

When does SM Energy report its next earnings?

SM Energy is scheduled to release its next quarterly financial results on November 3, 2026.

What are analysts' price targets for SM stock?

The mean analyst price target is $44.56, representing a 12.8% upside relative to its last close of $39.50. Coverage includes 11 positive ratings (9 Strong Buy, 2 Buy), 5 Holds, and 1 Strong Sell.

How much debt does SM Energy hold?

As of June 30, 2026, SM Energy had total debt of $7.04B and cash of $620.0M, resulting in net debt of $6.42B and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.90.

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